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Sunday September 9, 2007

Braced for a swing in votes

The Chinese discontent is very real and will have an impact on seats with a big Chinese population but a sizeable number of Umno-held seats may also be at stake.


INSIGHT BY JOCELINE TAN

BAYAN Baru was considered a pro-opposition constituency when Datuk Wong Kam Hoong first contested there in 1995.

But the Deputy Culture, Arts and Heritage Minister won the parliamentary seat quite comfortably, attributing it to the “ho hong” or auspicious wind blowing through that year.

Since then, Wong who is from the MCA, has retained the seat with progressively bigger majorities. In 2004, the Barisan Nasional's golden year, his majority was an astounding 18,000 votes.

Partners in politics: The community gave Abdullah their whole-hearted support in the last general election but Chinese concerns over a variety of issues have been building up in the last couple of years.

But like many Chinese politicians in the ruling coalition, he is mighty worried about the next general election.

“It’s going to be very tough for us,” he said.

There will be very little “ho hong” this time but he is banking on what he calls “kam cheng piow,” or goodwill votes. He is hoping his constituents will continue to support him based on his track record.

The Chinese ground has not been this restless since 1990 and the Chinese discontent is a much-talked-about factor in Malaysian politics.

"A Chinese vote swing could also affect Umno seats"- RITA SIM

Said corporate strategist Khoo Khay Peng: “A major trigger point was the domestic economic slowdown and the way it has been tied to the revival of the New Economic Policy (NEP). The Chinese are very practical people. They are not challenging the Malay leadership or the Malay political hegemony but the way the policy curtails economic activity.”

More than 90% of Chinese businesses are small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) and being almost all domestic-based, they are the first to feel a slowdown in the local economy.

“Moreover, SMEs employ more than five million people and if you couple this with the increased cost of living, you can imagine the impact,” said Khoo.

Add on the prevailing issues of race relations, religion and ultra-Malay stand and statements issued at last year’s Umno general assembly and we have what is known as the “Chinese sentiment”.

Almost every Chinese politician has a few stories about how his constituents, friends or associates are going to take their unhappiness to the ballot box.

The Chinese discontent, said Kota Melaka MP Wong Nai Chee, also has to do with the people's sky-high expectations after giving Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Abdullah a huge mandate.

Recent statements by Umno leaders that Malaysia is a polarised country also did not sit well withnon-Malays.

“Sometimes MCA has nothing to do with these issues but we get caught in the circumstances,” Wong said.

Just this week, a hot issue struck closer to home for him. The standoff between the pig farmers and the authorities in Malacca made frontpage news in all the vernacular Chinese dailies and is bound to have an impact among the Chinese voters in the state.

Wong, one of the most-watched Chinese MPs, has reason to be concerned. His urban-based seat is 65% Chinese and he won it by only 219 votes in 2004.

“The Chinese discontent is real, we know that. The question is the extent of their unhappiness and how all this will translate into votes and seats,” said Rita Sim, deputy chairman of the MCA think-tank Insap.

Dr Wee: Choice of candidate very crucial given the prevailing mood.

The hot spots are in the Klang Valley, Penang and to a lesser extent Perak. The Chinese-majority seats in these areas are the ones to watch.

Khoo’s own research puts the number at about 40 parliamentary seats.

“The effect will be mainly in the urban centres where there are large communities of Chinese. And because they talk about issues and share common concerns, their perception of politics and issues become magnified,” he said.

The challenge

The rural communities have been quite well cushioned by buoyant commodity prices whereas the urban centres are more acutely subjected to the escalating cost of living. Even issues like crime and security are more keenly felt in the cities.

The Sarawak state polls last year was a good example; the Chinese were disgruntled with the land policy of the Taib Mahmud-led government but it was the SUPP that took the punches, losing six state seats.

Likewise, dissatisfaction over statements and actions of Umno politicians in the peninsula may translate into votes against Barisan’s Chinese partners.

“It's going to be challenging and our party is very concerned. When the Chinese are not happy, it affects us directly. In 1986, they punished the MCA because they were not happy with government policies on Chinese education,” said Deputy Education Minister Datuk Hon Choon Kim.

The DAP is the likely beneficiary of the current discontent and DAP leaders have not been this hopeful in years.

However, said the party’s leading researcher Liew Chin Tong: “People talk of a Chinese swing but there is little Malay support. We will gain votes but not many seats because of the way the constituencies are structured.”

DAP politicians see the next polls as a repeat of the 1986 election when there was tremendous support from the Chinese but none from the Malays.

What they want is a repeat of the 1990 polls when a strong Malay opposition led by Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah attracted Malay votes.

They are hoping that Parti Keadilan Rakyat’s Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will play that role this time around.

And, as MCA’s Sim pointed out, a Chinese vote swing could also affect Umno seats.

There are 23 Umno parliamentary seats where the Chinese form 30% of the voters – four each in Selangor and Perak, three each in Kuala Lumpur, Johor and Pahang, two each in Penang and Negri Sembilan and one in Malacca.

Four of these seats are particularly vulnerable because they were narrowly won and have up to 40% or more Chinese voters. They are Nibong Tebal in Penang, Sungai Besar in Selangor, Indera Mahkota in Pahang and Muar in Johor.

Umno also has its “danger groups”, that is people who are not drawn to Umno’s politics. They are said to comprise Islamists (15%), the elites (10%) and other Malays who are generally anti-establishment (5%).

And just as in 1999 when the Malays rebelled against Umno and the Chinese vote saved the day for the Barisan, this election will see Malays holding the fort.

But the reality is that even with the Chinese discontent, the opposition is nowhere near to denying the Barisan the two-thirds majority.

The Barisan controls 198 seats in the 219-seat Parliament. The remaining 21 seats are held by PKR (1), PAS (7) and DAP (12).

The DAP, said Liew, would be able to secure at most another six to eight seats and only if the party is “very, very lucky.”

Generous accounts see the opposition sweeping into some 50 parliamentary seats whereas the more conservative estimates give them no more than 35 seats.

That does mean the ruling coalition is not doing its best to win back the Chinese favour.

Chinese schools and tertiary education are among MCA’s priority issues and the party has pushed hard to fulfil Chinese expectations in this area.

The Chinese, said Ayer Itam MP and MCA Youth secretary-general Dr Wee Ka Siong, want fair treatment and participation.

As such, the party leadership’s emphasis on the sanctity of the Federal Constitution, its spirit of solidarity, natural justice and goodwill, went down well with his audience.

“There are very high expectations from the community. A lot will be demanded of us this election,” said Dr Wee.

The choice of candidate becomes very crucial given the prevailing mood.

“An incumbent who has done well, a candidate who meets the people's expectations, someone whom they feel can voice their demands – all this will help win people over,” said Dr Wee.Partners in politics: The community gave Abdullah their whole-hearted support in the last general election but Chinese concerns over a variety of issues have been building up in the last couple of years. Dr Wee: Choice of candidate very crucial given the prevailing mood.

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