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Wednesday July 22, 2009

Like a deadly infectious virus, terrorism also evolves

Midweek by BUNN NAGARA


FRIDAY’S twin terror bombings in Jakarta may be far more serious than they already seem, if they represent a progression in not just the number but also the organisation, mode and scope of attacks.

Apart from the tragic deaths and destruction suffered by the foreign targets and some locals, the victims themselves might not have been the main purpose of the outrage.

The larger purpose could be an assertion by the violent militant wing of Jemaah Islamiah (JI), in a tussle for prominence against its political wing.

For days afterwards, Indonesian authorities remained undecided about the identity of the perpetrators.

The available forensic evidence contradicted denials of involvement by JI’s political wing, which had not generally been shy of claiming responsibility or endorsing attacks before.

A consensus seems to be developing that while evidence does link the attacks to JI’s sometime operative Nordin Top, the Malaysian suspect appears to have established his own organisation alongside JI.

This would mean a broadening of the “JI community” into multiple identities.

This in turn makes JI not just linked to al-Qaeda, but also operating more like it in producing “franchises” of its own. The added difficulties this makes to prevention, monitoring, detection, apprehension and successful prosecution of suspects are obvious.

Ironically and paradoxically, what now looks like a resurgence of terrorist activity in Indonesia may in part have resulted from a measure of successful policing.

There had been a lull in such attacks from 2005 until Friday, apparently caused by a clampdown by the authorities.

But the militant elements had only been biding their time, without being cowed or rehabilitated.

When anti-social activities are banned they are usually driven underground; when terrorism that is already outlawed is suppressed without contingency measures, it becomes more diffuse and less traceable.

If this means a form of factionalism within the broader JI umbrella, it is not one that would divide, split or otherwise weaken it. What it does is to make effective policing even more challenging and necessary.

It also forces a greater wariness on Indonesia’s security agencies.

No longer can anyone sound triumphant about past achievements, or any achievement for that matter, so long as terrorists continue to strike with impunity.

The involvement of foreigners like Nordin actually places a greater onus on Indonesia to upgrade its security.

One major question still to be asked is: if Indonesia is safer than its neighbouring countries, why do foreign terrorists choose to operate there?

Much in the quality of governance is contained in a country’s security provisions.

The Indonesian authorities not only have to root out terrorists after their attacks, but also to administer a society in which terrorism cannot find fertile ground.

Since terrorism and terrorists are not unique to any country, a measure of competent governance is how they are effectively impeded and eliminated.

A war-torn country may be expected to suffer from such violent setbacks, but Indonesia today is supposed to have outgrown its predicaments in Aceh and the former Timor Leste.

Reports that the terrorists had concealed the explosives by swallowing them to avoid detection at the lobby entrance further raises the terror threat.

By copying the tactic of drug mules to evade customs at airports, this method could make existing security provisions at hotels, airports and other locations useless.

The usual pat-down, metal detectors and even sniffer dogs may be defeated by this simple tactic. What solutions can the authorities in Indonesia or anywhere else offer to counter this new approach?

Letting a few drug traffickers slip through may not make much of a difference in a country. But letting a single terrorist slip past with his explosives is another matter altogether.

Like a lethal virus or bacteria, terrorism seems to evolve into more resistant and resilient strains.

To take a leaf from disease control experts: prescribe and ingest a cocktail of remedies to eliminate it comprehensively, while anticipating possible new developments.

Complacency can only encourage further infection. A new definition of success has become as necessary as effective new treatments.

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