THE leader of an al-Qaeda-linked militant group is traced to his father-in-law’s house, a fight ensues, and news reports claim the elusive leader has at last been killed.

Fellow militants deny it and some government leaders and the media are uncertain – the militant was falsely reported killed before.

Government forces have an interest in claiming success in a major kill, and militant groups have an interest in denying a major loss.

That happened in Pakistan last Wednesday with Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud, and much the same happened on Saturday in Indonesia with Jemaah Islamiah operations head Noordin Mat Top.

In both cases, it was just the beginning of much intrigue and insecurity.

Reasons for the uncertainty and confusion were obvious: inaccessibility to the militant groups and their leaders, their few identifying clues available to the security forces, the attack on Baitullah by pilotless drones, Noordin’s talent for disguises, poor communication from the frontlines, and the loose structure of the militant organisations.

Baitullah’s supposed death was further complicated by reports of several tribal meetings to choose a successor, in turn leading to claims and denials of a shootout and then the death of a leading candidate.

Noordin’s supposed death was obscured by reports that he had formed his own terrorist organisation distinct from the JI mainstream.

On Friday Kompas quoted an Aljazeera report that Noordin had been arrested in Central Java, but that apparently led nowhere.

Early the next day police raided a house in Bekasi town in East Java province, killing two suspects and arresting three. It was later revealed that they had been planning a car bomb attack on President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s private residence nearby.

Later that day police raided another house in Beji village in Temanggung town in Central Java, allegedly cornering Noordin and some accomplices. A siege followed, “Noordin” was killed, but he seemed alone.

Then the confusion multiplied. Commentators said it could not have been Noordin because he would not have been left unprotected; that he would not have chosen Beji to hide in, as it was ringed by highlands making escape difficult; and that the DNA of the deceased did not match Noordin’s – even before any DNA test had been conducted.

Officially the identity of the deceased remains unconfirmed, as police prepare for DNA testing with samples from Noordin’s children and a body identification by one of his wives.

Privately the police want to believe it was Noordin, reports said the militant had identified himself as such during the siege, and officials congratulated themselves for the “success” before any confirmation.

The greater operational success lies in the arrest of the Bekasi suspects, two of whom were taken to Jakarta for questioning this week.

Few Indonesian analysts understood that if Noordin could also be interrogated, he would have yielded more valuable information on other militants, their organisational structure, operations and future plans.

Had Noordin been killed, as was expert bomb maker Azahari Husin in 2005, the authorities would have lost many leads without eradicating terrorism.

They might also risk boosting his image as a selfless warrior or even a martyr, inspiring a new generation of militants.

The police assertion that Noordin “would have killed himself anyway to avoid capture” is no excuse, only a failure to understand the strategic situation in the heat of the tactical moment.

And while it may be gratifying to think that a leading terrorist had been killed, that is an emotional response that trained professionals should beware of.

Even after reports of Baitullah’s death, Taliban militants killed a pro-government tribal militia leader on Sunday.

Whether or not Baitullah had actually died does not appear to compromise militant activity, and might even have prompted militants to prove their staying power.

A new problem for Pakistani authorities is that if they fail to wrest power from a supposedly disoriented Taliban now, the weaknesses of the security forces could be exposed instead.

Already, the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaeda elements are said to be muscling in with the “vacuum” left by Baitullah’s claimed demise.

As the drone was attacking Baitullah’s supposed hideout, Jakarta police arrested a five-star hotel cook for suspected involvement in last month’s bombing of two five-star hotels in town.

The security implications are enormous, with a cook having routine service access to the hotel and the food supply of guests.

All this only raises the stakes for the long anti-terror fight, with little realistic room for rejoicing.

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