Ready to serve: Obama (squatting) talking to Hurricane Sandy victims at a shelter in Brigantine, New Jersey. — AFP

Despite various ups and downs in the US presidential campaign, incumbent Barack Obama is still keeping his lead.

ONCE upon a time, or a few weeks ago in US election campaign time, a series of presidential debates alongside daily tracking polls would typify a pair of candidates’ tussle for the Oval Office.

The debates, the hustings, the routine hype with all the trimmings of election promises, the blustery campaign ads and the occasional stumble or hiccup would pave the way to a new presidential term. But these scripted and rehearsed scenarios now seem so yesteryear.

Yet these cherished rituals were safely in place until only about a week or two ago. The debates had come and gone as planned, and the rest had also fallen into place.

After the first two presidential debates, the third between President Barack Obama and businessman Mitt Romney focused on foreign policy, as was the custom. And so news coverage dutifully latched onto the prominent foreign affairs issues of the day, and how they might impact on US-perceived interests and concerns.

Republican Senator John McCain tried to create some momentum from that corner by attacking the Obama administration over the deadly militant raid on the US consulate in Benghazi, Libya.

Some Americans, including the US ambassador, who were in the building were killed. Consulate staff had earlier requested better security in vain, administration officials fumbled their response, and the White House and the State Department were seen to be out of sync.

It was the worst case of incompetence or a cover-up by any administration, McCain intoned. He then said it was worse than the Watergate scandal that led to the impeachment of his party colleague President Richard Nixon.

At the same time, Romney’s camp belittled Obama’s measured approach to Iran’s contentious nuclear programme. Here they had the backing of Israeli hawks like Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who want an early military strike against Iran’s suspected sites.

The Obama camp remained undeterred, refusing to rise to the bait. It was an inelegant campaign point for Romney, since there were Republicans as well as Israelis who firmly reject Israeli unilateral strikes.

But McCain and Romney were not to be discouraged. They kept hitting those buttons seen to depict Obama as indecisive, ill-prepared, clumsy or worse.

There were other foreign policy targets that Republicans thought could hurt the Obama campaign decisively in the final stretch: Putin’s Russia, a rising China, and relations with Israel generally.

To the Republican faithful, Obama’s liabilities were obvious enough; how could anyone else not see them? To Democrats, these were no more than scurrilous attacks by an increasingly desperate Republican contender.

However, what mattered more was that big pool of crucial voters in the middle, the “undecideds”, and how they would vote. More than a few there may have seen through the Republican tactic of attacking Obama for his perceived foreign policy weaknesses as cover for the total lack of foreign policy ideas or experience of Romney and his running mate Paul Ryan.

Then, just when everyone was preoccupied with the foreign policy angle of the election campaign, “Superstorm” Hurricane Sandy struck.

Dozens of people were killed, billions were lost in property damage, schools were closed, public transport paralysed and businesses disrupted. Several states and cities including New York were inundated, hospital services came to a halt and even the New York Stock Exchange had to close.

Suddenly, the setting switched from the international to the local: locating missing persons, rescuing survivors, securing homes, providing for families, compensating for the losses, caring for the homeless and the sick.

The nation was under siege again, this time from the elements rather than the militants. It was time to come together; Americans of all stripes had to regroup to rebuild.

Suddenly those Republicans who had long derided Obama for being no more than a mere “community organiser” in Chicago, instead of being a “real” politician, national leader and global figure, found that the single most important strength in national reconstruction was community organising.

Obama sailed into this context without breaking sweat: visiting devastated neighbourhoods, reassuring residents, exchanging notes with local authorities and encouraging community leaders. Behind this was the strength of Federal authorities at his command like FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) and the National Guard, which swung swiftly into action to provide for the needy.

In contrast, the sight of Romney the billionaire businessman appealing to the average American for a dollar or two to help out seemed artificial. Pictures of him handing out boxes of supplies from supply trucks appeared posed, staged or surreal.

At the same time, the subtext to Sandy were the dreaded C-words: “climate change”. Democrats as a whole were more aware of the issues and the dangers, whereas Republicans generally appeared complacent or obstinate in their state of denial.

Another subtext: Romney wants to replace FEMA with individual state initiatives. An argument has since emerged that big natural disasters require big (Federal) agencies.

Advantage Obama, yet again. How these issues add up and pan out in Obama’s favour must have discomforted more than a few Republicans.

The result was that some prominent Republicans were openly endorsing Obama’s re-election.

There was New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, described as a former “fierce critic” of Obama. When the President visited his state to assess the storm damage, Christie complimented Obama on his response and declared support for him.

There was also New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who also declared support for Obama because the incumbent was the better candidate on climate change. Former Secretary of State and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Colin Powell also came out in support of Obama.

Sandy showed Obama to be performing well, or at least better than Romney. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 had shown a Republican administration to be performing poorly while praising its own, and bitter memories tend to persist.

Both camps now claim to have the momentum behind them for victory on Tuesday. Romney is seen to have the edge in the larger national picture, but Obama is said to have the advantage in the states, which provide for the necessary 270 electoral votes.

In theory the national and the statewide numbers should tally, but some observers have pointed out the anomaly this time. Fettling the details may show Obama’s advantage to be more steady.

In August, a joint poll by CBS News, the New York Times and Quinnipiac University showed Obama leading solidly. Last month, CNN data showed that in the third presidential debate, not only were there more Republican viewers, more of them were more impressed by Obama than by Romney.

During the week, a Telegraph poll showed Obama leading by more than 10% in secured electoral votes. Five days before the election, Democratic pollsters’ findings that Obama was gaining more support in both early voting as well as in crucial swing states went unchallenged by Republicans.

As for voters thinking how voters generally would vote, the expectation is also for Obama: 54% to 32% by Gallup, and 53% to 29% by Reuters/Ipsos.

If the three debates were taken as a whole, however, Romney could still be the winner largely from his performance in the first round that had attracted a larger audience. Debates aside, however, Obama on present form is still tipped to win the election.

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