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Tuesday December 11, 2012

A tale of Twin Desert Cities

CERITALAH BY KARIM RASLAN


The United Arab Emirates with its lynchpin cities of Dubai and Abu Dhabi are fast-becoming pre-eminent global hubs with unmatched connectivity. They are where you go to network with and around the burgeoning global growth markets.

MY good friend and fellow writer Pankaj Mishra is deeply critical of the United Arab Emirates.

Writing for Bloomberg on Nov 19, he sees the UAE’s reliance on foreign labour from the subcontinent and geopolitical position as “unsustainable”.

I take Pankaj’s points but there’s no denying the extent to which this polity of over 7.5 million, (of which only 1.5 million are locals) has become a new global hub.

Dubai, in particular with its flagship carrier Emirates, has evolved into an extraordinary airline hub. After all, this is an airline that operates the world’s largest fleet of double-decker Airbus 380’s.

Over the past two months – during a protracted binge of travelling – I have changed planes there for Dakar, Istanbul, Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta.

Each time, I’m mindful of the scale of the endeavour as flights to ever more exotic and distant destinations – Sao Paulo, Luanda, Adelaide, Guangzhou, Lisbon and Seattle – appear on the electronic information signboards.

It’s worth bearing in mind that Singapore Airlines, Southeast Asia’s own regional behemoth, has been forced to mothball its non-stop flights to New York and Los Angeles only recently because of a drop in demand; an indication of Emirates’ greater momentum.

So, whatever you may think of the UAE (and they have many detractors), its lynchpins Dubai and Abu Dhabi — the Twin Desert Cities – are fast-becoming the pre-eminent global hubs with an unmatched connectivity.

These cities are where you go to network, with and around the burgeoning global growth markets. Indeed one UN agency head told me that when you’re convening an event drawing people from across the globe, the “Twin Desert Cities” are the easiest to reach.

But there are other factors at work here. In an era awash with liquidity and cash, it’s fascinating to see how, as Pankaj puts it: “Wealth, so colossal and concentrated, attracts more wealth.”

Rich people tend to congregate together; witness the way they pile into London, New York and Singapore to buy the most expensive real estate in the world with no concern for its outlandish price.

In the case of the Twin Desert Cities and especially Abu Dhabi, we are presented with an emirate that produces some 2.69 million barrels of oil a day, creating in turn the second-largest sovereign wealth fund in the world – the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority with an estimated US$627bil (RM1.9trillion) in managed assets.

Connectivity, wealth management, sovereign funds and lifestyle (the Guggenheim and Louvre pro-jects on Saadiyat island off Abu Dhabi are progressing rapidly) will create a critical mass that will in turn attract even more money and moneyed individuals.

With property prices one fifth of London, New York and Singapore, I can see nowhere for property in Abu Dhabi to go but up.

Indeed, an apartment in the city centre of Abu Dhabi costs about US$3,244.97 (RM9,932) per square metre compared to US$12,288.72 (RM37,600) in London or US$16,169.56 (RM49,500) in Singa-pore.

All this investment is of course, presaged on political stability.

As an absolute monarchy, the UAE should be quaking in the face of the Arab Spring. Democracy, after all, is supposed to be the ultimate guarantee of political stability.

Still, with a small and pampered local population, it’s been able to insulate itself from the turbulence coursing through the Arab world.

Much will depend on the continuing wisdom and effectiveness of its Rulers in managing the growing expectations of both the Arab population and expatriates.

It’s significant that the UAE’s economy still grew by 4.2% last year despite the global economic and political uncertainty.

Indeed, with every added shock brought by the Arab Spring, the Twin Desert Cities have been net beneficiaries as even more cash (from Egypt, Sudan and Syria) has flowed into the UAE in search of a safe haven.

Finally, and at a time when the global chattering classes are so sceptical and wary of Islamic polities, it’s’ worth mentioning that the Twin Desert Cities are predominantly Muslim, certainly ruled by them – Muslims who see no threat in the proliferation of bars, churches and temples.

Whilst many would turn their noses up at the sedately bourgeois comforts and stolidity of Abu Dhabi or the vulgarity and crassness of Dubai, the combination at least offers variety.

Certainly, the UAE is an example of how a Muslim entity can become a platform for the exchange, both of goods and services, as well as ideas when the various off-shore campuses (ranging from New York University to Paris-Sorbonne) are fully operational.

So, for all you budding billionaires out there, now’s the time to buy a little piece of the Twin Desert Cities — or is it Switzerland without the Alps, but with the sand.

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