Sunday December 2, 2012

Next worst option

BEHIND THE HEADLINES By BUNN NAGARA

Despite new prospects for peace, Israel and the United States persist in self-denying, self-fulfilling policies of doom.

ANOTHER result of Israel’s slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza is a formative Palestine’s accession to non-member Observer status at the United Nations, with a landslide win at the UN General Assembly (UNGA).

The UNGA is the most democratic of all UN bodies, with one vote for each member nation regardless of size, wealth or politics. Thursday’s vote went 138 for Palestine and nine against, with 41 abstentions.

UN members from North, South, East and West came together for Palestine when it mattered. Countries in Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America expressed that support in a front that united them across different cultures, histories, social traditions and political and economic systems.

Like the other consequences of Israel’s rampage in Gaza, such as a strengthening of Hamas authority there, quasi-statehood for Palestine comes with greater solidarity among Palestinians and a reaffirmation of their cause internationally.

However, unlike some of the results of Israel’s recent lethal folly, this comes at no cost to Israel. The Zionist state had always professed to endorse a Palestinian state as part of a two-state solution to the conflict following Israel’s land grab.

Nonetheless, Israel tried hard to block the Palestinian bid for some kind of recognition at the UN. At first, it tried to lobby some compliant UNGA members to vote against, then when that seemed futile it tried to play down the significance of the new status.

As another tactic in the days leading to the vote, Israel threatened Palestinian leaders that any form of UN recognition of Palestine would derail the “peace process” supposedly leading to Palestinian statehood. But in all the years of Benjamin Netanyahu’s premiership, Israel contributed nothing to the peace process that now lies dying or dead.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon described it as being “on life support”. It is a process Israel had firmly set in reverse, with continual waves of illegal settlements on Palestinian land.

Netanyahu called the UNGA vote “meaningless”, casting doubt on his own supposed commitment to democracy. Analysts say that while Palestine’s new status is symbolic in the short term, benefits to Palestinians are likely to accrue over the long term.

If Palestine’s new limited status is really so insignificant as Israel says, and since it conforms with Israel’s stated support for Palestinian statehood, why object to it at all? There is no zero-sum equation in twin statehoods, which should actually be encouraged if the true objective is a two-state solution.

It is now clearer than ever that Israel is determined to obstruct any move that could make the nation of Palestine a reality. And its only steadfast partner, ally and sponsor in this as always is the United States.

Despite a sense of Palestinian statehood doing Israel no harm, as a change from armed conflict, Israel with US support would block it. But even when supporting the move instead as a smart PR exercise – since the vote for Palestine was a foregone conclusion – could earn Israel and the US new international respect and plaudits, the old reactionary gut instinct against Palestine would prove too strong.

And so Israel and the US voted against, becoming internationally isolated as part of less than 5% of the international community. Since this outcome could clearly be seen in advance, their isolation cannot be undeserved.

It shows, among other things, that the US of Barack Obama could not even persuade Israel to opt for the smarter strategy of voting in favour, or just abstaining, when that could benefit both countries. Instead of a better sense prevailing in the US which could influence Israel, the opposite happened, calling US leverage with Israel into question.

Some countries like Britain felt that voting for the resolution would strengthen the Fatah faction of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas over Hamas.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tried to dissuade Israel from seeking revenge against Abbas over the resolution for that reason, with limited success.

The rest of the world is no longer in any doubt that the Israeli-US “peace formula” cannot work, since it has only served to further Israeli encroachment on Palestinian land. So far, the Israeli-US axis has benefited Israel at the expense of the Palestinian people, which the rest of the world can no longer accept.

More than a dozen European countries voted to support Palestine. Germany at first tried to support Israel, apparently still suffering pangs of Nazi war guilt, but finally chose to abstain because Israel remained stubborn over its growing number of illegal settlements.

The high point of Obama’s relations with Arab countries was said to be his Cairo speech of 2009, titled “A New Beginning”. Since the UNGA resolution for Palestine is embraced by much of the world far beyond just the Gulf countries, the US global loss of goodwill can be measured in many “Cairo speeches worth”.

Following the UNGA vote, Israel continued to complain that Abbas still did not talk about a two-state solution, as a way to excuse Israel’s sour attitude. BBC World News reported that at the same time as quoting Abbas saying that the UNGA resolution was “the last chance for a two-state solution”.

When the UNGA vote seemed certain to go Palestine’s way, Israeli diplomatic strategists flew into Washington and huddled with their US counterparts since last Sunday in secret talks aimed at scuttling Palestine’s new status.

Outwardly, Israel played down the new Palestinian advance while it quietly worked with US diplomats to rob the Observer State position of any meaning. Israel wanted new wording that would stop Palestinians from seeking membership of the International Criminal Court (ICC), a renewal of direct negotiations with Israel without preconditions, and an official declaration that the new status would be only symbolic.

But time to rework the language of the resolution was running out. If Israel’s wishes could not be fulfilled in time, it wanted to punish the Palestinians by withholding money from taxes collected that was badly needed for daily services and the rebuilding of infrastructure damaged by Israel.

As it turned out, Israel is using the money route to inflict pain on the Palestinians again, with US assistance. Only the support for Palestine’s new status from around the world, notably European countries, is limiting the damage that Israel can do.

For analysts, the main reason why Israel and the US is objecting so strongly against Palestine’s move is its entitlement to ICC membership. With that, Palestinian leaders can file cases of war crimes against Israel.

But for that to succeed, Israel must have demonstrably shown that it has committed such crimes. And after the Palestinians bring the cases to the ICC, assuming they do, the court will have to weigh the evidence and find Israel guilty before any penalty can be meted out against it.

For Israel and the US to be so concerned over this possibility shows that they believe Israel is seriously culpable. They fear that Israel can be given a fair, full trial and found guilty, then having to be held responsible for its actions.

But can this be possible, given the many years of their righteous claims and dismissive denials? They should know their liabilities best.