It isn’t always that a provincial poll attracts such huge interest. But the recent poll in the western state of Gujarat for constituting a new Assembly was entirely different. This was because of Chief Minister Narendra Modi.

While the outcome was a foregone conclusion – the Bharatiya Janata Party was widely expected to retain power – the nation-wide interest lay in whether Modi would improve on the tally of 117 seats the party had in the outgoing House. In the event, he fell short by two seats.

Nonetheless, it was an emphatic victory, his third in a row. On Wednesday, Modi took oath as Gujarat Chief Minister at a ceremony in a huge sports stadium in Ahemdabad in the presence of tens of thousands of frenzied supporters and a galaxy of senior national leaders, including J. Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK President and Chief Minister of the southern state of Tamilnadu.

His taking oath as CM, however, did not end speculation about his prime ministerial ambitions. There was no denying that Modi himself nursed national ambitions. His supporters were keen for him to hand over the charge of Gujarat to a competent lieutenant while he himself moved to the Centre.

How it will eventually pan out would depend on various factors, but the fact that the BJP was bereft of a strong national leader lent substance to the talk about him graduating to New Delhi from Gandhinagar, the capital of Gujarat in the not-too-distant future.

Doubtless, Modi is a controversial, even divisive figure, evoking strong support and antipathy in equal measure. His legion of critics blame him for the 2002 religious riots in Gujarat which had resulted in the death of over 1,000 people.

Investigations, closely monitored by the Supreme Court, however did not throw up evidence of wrongdoing against Modi. At best, he could be held morally responsible because as the head of the state government, it was his duty to prevent the riots.

Modi was keen to put that sordid chapter in the state’s history behind him. In the recent election campaign, he steered clear of all emotive issues, harping, instead, on good governance. Gujarat had registered a higher growth rate than the rest of the country.

He himself was a rare politician who was untainted by any charge of corruption. Thanks to his clean image and efficient administration, Modi had attracted sizeable investment in the industrial sector.

The state infrastructure was first-rate, with roads, public transport, power supply getting a huge boost under him.

In the recent poll, the BJP won over 90% of the seats in the urban and semi-urban centres, thanks to the quickened pace of economic development. However, critics insisted that the people in the state had a natural flair for entrepreneurship and Modi, at best, had provided a fillip by facilitating the creation of better infrastructure.

Whatever the truth in those claims and counter-claims, the fact that Modi had scored a hattrick of poll victories proved his popularity. The question is whether he can broad-base his appeal and successfully lead the BJP at the national level. The jury is still out on that question but if it is left to the rank and file of the party, Modi will emerge as by far the most popular BJP leader.

Since the retirement of former prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee from active politics, the BJP has missed a charismatic national leader. Weak leaders without a national appeal have led it since then. Admittedly, the BJP leaders of the Opposition in Parliament, Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley, have performed credibly, but both lack popular appeal.

Modi’s appeal essentially stems from his no-nonsense approach to administration and his image as an incorruptible politician. Besides, he is a great orator who knows how to work the audiences.

He was firm, decisive and single-minded in pursuing his goals, the very qualities which, critics argue, could work against him at the national level. His arbitrary style of functioning had virtually turned the Gujarat BJP into a one-man party, with Modi towering over everyone else in the organisation.

Modi was not a team player, while the BJP has traditionally frowned upon the personality cult and encouraged collective leadership. Paradoxically, ordinary Indians crave for a strong leader with authoritarian tendencies, but fellow politicians resent such leaders who might cut them to size. Other ambitious leaders in the BJP might not like Modi’s transition to New Delhi, fearing that he might try and carve the party in his own light.

But the ruling Congress Party does not fear Modi’s advent on the national scene, seeing in the divisive figure an opportunity to firm up its support among the minorities and other sections who might be apprehensive of a strong and authoritarian leader.

Even the allies of the BJP in the National Democratic Alliance, such as the leader of the Janata Dal (United) and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, are not enthusiastic about Modi helming the BJP, fearing his ascendancy will cause the minorities to desert them.

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