When it finally comes, the GE13 will no longer be a surprise as all political parties are already going through their final paces.

EVEN as the deadline draws nearer, many are still insisting on speculating on the exact date of the 13th general election – something most pundits have been doing since the March 8, 2008 political tsunami election.

Some of these pundits have speculated on so many dates that they have now turned around to say that Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak has changed his mind many times on when Parliament should be dissolved.

Although Najib had never said anything about a date, these pundits have been doing it for him since 2010.

Among the popular speculations were November 2010, July 2011, April 2012, June 2012 and November 2012.

There are also several weird predictions like Nov 11, 2011 (or 11.11.11) and the reason is that 11 is Najib’s favourite number.

The fact that Nov 11, 2011 was a Friday and elections in Malaysia are only held on Saturdays was totally ignored by these so-called experts.

If one was to listen to the pundits, then every month in 2011 and 2012 was a good month to have a general election but obviously Najib thought otherwise.

These speculators have then come out with the following reasons whenever the elections never took place:

> Najib is unsure of victory nationally;

> Najib is unsure of capturing Selangor;

> Najib is unsure of hanging on to Perak

> Najib wants to surpass the length of time that Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was Prime Minister so that if he loses he will not be the shortest;

> An Indian numerologist told him that 2012 was a bad year for him;

> A Chinese Feng Shui master told Najib that 2013 was a good year for him;

> Najib wanted to make sure that even the Pakatan Rakyat controlled states would hold their state elections simultaneously with the Federal one; and

> Najib did not hold the general elections in November 2011 because he promised his children a holiday.

The reasons/excuses given were endless but suffice to say they would have fitted the inaccuracies of any of the predicted dates.

The latest predicted date for the GE13 is this month which has less than three weeks left to run.

The reason for doing it now is that Umno is on a high because of the recently completed general assembly.

Yes, it is true that Umno members showed more discipline and confidence since 2009.

They seem buoyed and more focused on winning the polls instead of stabbing each other in the back, or sabotage, as Najib had put it.

The delegates at the assembly seemed to have realised that the eyes of the nation were on them and it was as if they needed to show them that Umno had changed.

After all, many say the Barisan’s poor showing in 2008 started at the 2007 general assembly with the keris kissing incident.

But did the 66th Umno general assembly justify speculation of a general election this month?

Election Commission chairman Tan Sri Abdul Aziz Mohd Yusof while admitting on Sunday that it was still possible to have the polls this month, quickly warned that Parliament would have to be dissolved in the next few days for this to happen.

However, I would like to discount the general election ever happening in the next three weeks for the following reasons:

> Najib is confirmed to be leaving for New Delhi for an Asean-India anniversary summit on Dec 18 and will be there for three days;

> If Parliament is dissolved this week then the fastest Aziz could organise the polls would be 14 days later that means it will be smack in the middle of the Christmas-New Year holidays. Holding it then would prove rather unpopular;

> Such short notice will definitely invoke the opposition to react and they may choose to hold their four state elections on a later date; and

> Many of the Election Commission workers are civil servants from other departments and many of them are already on leave.

I doubt the EC has enough time to recall them.

For the record, Parliament expires on April 28 and the EC has up to 60 days to hold the GE.

But I think we can safely say (I hope I am right) that the elections would have been done and dusted before April 28.

This means that the polls must be held in the first three months of 2013.

The first window of opportunity for Najib to have the election is in January but it will be tight because that is the start of the school year on Jan 2, which is a Wednesday.

However, Najib is also squeezed by the Chinese New Year which falls on Feb 10.

The question is then whether he has enough time to campaign and finish the polls all within a 30-day period – after the start of the school year but before the Lunar New Year?

The entire month of February is lost because of the 14 days of CNY celebrations.

This leaves Najib with the month of March where there seems to be nothing in the way. School holidays start on March 22.

I do not foresee Najib allowing Parliament to expire before calling for the polls because it would take away the element of surprise that his coalition enjoys as the Govern­ment of the day.

Executive editor Wong Sai Wan is so confident of elections being held next year that he is on leave from tomorrow till Christmas.

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