The stakes are very high in Selangor and politicians from both sides of the political divide have stepped up their game as the clock ticks closer to the big day.

DATUK Seri Najib Tun Razak has seen a lot of things in politics, but the first time he heard someone in the crowd call out “Ah Jib gor”, he broke into a big smile.

It was during one of his walkabouts in Kuala Lumpur a few days after the launch of his “Ah Jib gor” Chinese Facebook page. “Ah Jib gor” is the Cantonese way of saying “brother Najib” and the page shows him on a bicycle and waving to the crowd. It has close to 25,000 Likes by now.

But the Internet is a multi-headed creature and in the first few days after the page came up, there were the usual abuses that have become so common on the Internet. However, there were also genuine people wanting to connect with the Prime Minister.

Some of those around him started having second thoughts but the man persisted in taking the good, the bad and the ugly with an open heart.

Doing groundwork: Najib is not letting up on his efforts to connect with the Chinese although Chinese support for the Barisan has not improved much since 2008. The Prime Minister is seen here at a walkabout in Shah Alam.

One month along the road, it has developed into a very real and constructive Facebook page, drawing genuine feedback that ranges from opinions about issues and policies to complaints about infrastructure and services.

More importantly, “Ah Jib gor” actually responds to selected comments. Almost every day, Najib spends some time on the translated scripts and according to his Chinese political secretary Wong Nai Chee, there is no filtering of comments except if it contains off-colour language.

“Our aim is to keep it real and honest,” said Wong who helps manage the page.

It is certainly real enough for the Chinese media to regularly report on issues raised in the page and the responses from the Prime Minister. There are still the angry and frustrated postings but by and large, those commenting on his page seem to believe he can sort out many of the issues affecting their daily lives.

Najib has not let up on efforts to reach out to the Chinese even though Chinese support for the Barisan Nasional has not improved much since 2008.

Wong: ‘Najib’s Chinese Facebook page is a source of news for the Chinese media.’

He has struck a chord with the community and they regard him as a serious, hard-working and committed leader. Intellectual depth is important to the Chinese and they can see that this man understands the economy and world affairs even while they remain critical of his party, Umno.

Selangor is particularly problematic for the Barisan in terms of the Chinese vote. The Chinese pendulum in Selangor has yet to swing back, they are still bent on punishing Umno, and Barisan’s share of the Chinese support is still hovering between 20% and 25% in Selangor.

The Chinese make up 34% of Selangor’s voters and seats where they form the majority will be DAP’s fixed deposits in the general election. The DAP which has 13 state seats is set to become Pakatan Rakyat’s most dominant party in Selangor, overtaking PKR and PAS.

The conventional wisdom is that the Chinese middle ground, or fence-sitters, is at its most minimal ever because the bulk of Chinese voters have made up their minds.

But it is quite a different story outside the Chinese belt in Selangor. The Malay parties in the Barisan and Pakatan coalitions have their own respective hardcore supporters, but unlike the Chinese electorate, there is a sizeable Malay middle ground that is said to be around 35% to 40% of the total electorate and which both sides are trying to win over.

This is where the Barisan, or more specifically Umno, feels most confident. Umno’s political machinery is real and extensive unlike say PKR which has a dubious organisational network. Many think that most of PKR’s claim of having 500,000 members is a fairy tale because its last party election saw barely 10% of its members actually voting.

Faizal: ‘People in Selangor seem to talk politics at breakfast, lunch and dinner.’

Moreover, said Selangor Umno politician Datuk Faizal Abdullah, DAP’s all-out attack against Umno has backfired. DAP may win votes among the Chinese for attacking Umno but it has made many Malays feel uncomfortable that the Chinese party is now taking on a Malay party.

“It is actually helping us among some Malay fence-sitters,” said Faizal.

Malays, even in the Klang Valley, are still quite suspicious of the DAP.

For instance, a consultant who was invited to a forum comprising young, urban professionals in the finance sector was quite taken aback when the Malay executives at her table said they did not mind voting for PAS but not if PAS persists in working with DAP.

Umno’s claim over the Malay ground also has to do with their championing of issues like religion and the position of the Malays. There is a lot of discussion about meritocracy among the young and more modern Malays, but deep down at the core level, these two issues remain fundamental to Malay identity and priorities.

People who read commentaries by liberal-minded Malay writers in the English media like to think that these writers reflect the thinking of Malays out there. But like it or not, it is the views in Utusan which represent the sentiments of the larger body of Malays out there.

Umno is very sure this time around that their members will come out and vote for Barisan. In 2008, Umno members were unhappy over a lot of things; some did not come out while some may have even been angry enough to vote for the other side. They are confident there will not be a repeat.

Besides, they added, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has pledged that he will campaign “to his last drop of blood” for the coalition. The former premier is 100% with Umno as opposed to the last election when he was waging war against his then successor.

The Barisan’s biggest stumbling block at this point in time is the National Feedlot Corporation issue which they fear will cost them votes among the Malay middle ground. They feel that Datuk Seri Shahrizat Abdul Jalil has to go before the election.

The signs are crystal clear that Selangor will be the central battleground in the general election with the fight centred around the Malay vote. Selangor has also registered some 430,000 new voters of whom 58% are Malays, 30% are Chinese and 12% are Indians and other ethnic groups.

Selangor is not only the most economically advanced state. Since 2008, it has also become the most highly politicised state in the country where everything and anything can be turned into a political issue.

Or as Faizal put it: “People in Selangor seem to talk politics at breakfast, lunch and dinner.”

There is no shortage of issues and some pretty fierce language emanates from both sides almost daily.

Even a cineplex can become a political issue. In Bangi, a PAS assemblyman has opposed a cineplex that is to be built in a shopping mall because he is concerned it will lead to maksiat or vice activities which, by PAS’ definition, could mean anything from unmarried people of opposite sexes having sex, holding hands or just being in each other’s company.

The Bangi assemblyman Shafie Abu Bakar is aligned to Datuk Dr Hasan Ali, the conservative Islamist who was sacked from PAS and the state government a month ago.

There is even a whiff of murder most foul. Blogger extraordinaire Raja Petra Kamarudin is causing ripples with allegations that a wealthy Selangor developer who died tragically during a burglary a couple of years ago may have been murdered.

RPK, arguably the most powerful and controversial Malaysian in cyberspace today, claimed that the developer was killed because he was about to expose corruption in the state government over sand mining contracts.

Media people covering Selangor think that Mentri Besar Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim, shortcomings and all, remains the most credible figure in the state. He is perceived as sincere, clean and hard-working.

“The politician in him is beginning to come out although there are relapses. Last week, he officiated at an awards event for Tamil students in Ijok. The hall was filled with 13-year-olds but his speech was like a ceramah, praising Anwar Ibrahim and talking about how Pakatan has changed Selangor,” said one journalist.

Journalists are, however, less than impressed with the state exco. They wonder how some of them managed to get appointed and they say that only two state exco members are really impressive. They talk about how one controversial exco member is more interested in tagging along with Khalid wherever he goes while another has been dodging the media ever since her past returned to haunt her.

Selangor has always been about big-stakes politics and both sides are doing whatever it takes to win. Pakatan is also playing the goodies game. Their earlier mantra of zero tolerance for corruption and good governance has been replaced by promises of development.

Earlier last week, state exco member Dr Xavier Jayakumar said Selangor will be launching RM15bil in infrastructure development over the next two years whereas Khalid announced plans to build a Tamil school with hostel facilities in his Ijok constituency where there is a significant number of Indian voters.

Barisan’s confidence has to do with the feedback they have been getting in their surveys. At a recent Selangor Barisan meeting, Najib who is the state Barisan chief, said the coalition had what he called a “realistic chance” of taking back Selangor but cautioned that it was far from “game over” for either side.

He urged the component parties to do their best because if they do not take advantage of the “window of opportunity”, the window may be closed for many years to come.

He pointed to Kelantan which fell to PAS in 1990. When the Barisan failed to get it back in 1995, the state has continued to stay under PAS control till now.

In the case of Terengganu, he said that Barisan managed to wrest it back from PAS after one term and while several states fell in 2008, Terengganu was won with a clear two-thirds majority.

He also hinted that the general election may not be far off.

He said the most asked question wherever he went was: “Boss, when is the election?”

He told them that if he called for election in one or two months’ time, the Pakatan states may not come along.

He said he was not exactly in a hurry, he could afford to go the full term but he did not want people to think that he is clinging on to a borrowed mandate.

So he asked them to do their own arithmetic when the polls would be held between now and the end of the year.

The clock is ticking closer to the big day. The Chinese pendulum shows little sign of swinging but the Malay and Indian pendulums may have started to swing.

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