TO say that militants from al-Qaeda or its affiliates are active “from here (insert location) to Timbuktu” may be a bit of a stretch, once. But apparently not any more, at least not since the last week or two. Islamist militants struck in several locations in Mali and neighbouring Algeria, killing, maiming and destroying as they kidnapped dozens of foreigners and held locals captive.

Mali is a landlocked, underdeveloped African country where slavery persists and half the population lives in poverty. With little infrastructure, its economy hinges on the traditional occupations of farming and fishing.

In 1991, anti-government forces toppled the government. Although stability appeared for a while, Mali slipped back to the bad old ways. Fast-forward two decades, and stability and development remained elusive.

Mali’s “movers and shakers” soon became an ugly assortment of troublemakers: anti-establishment forces, rebel soldiers, militant extremists, armed secessionists and criminal gangs. Naturally, it became an instant magnet for al-Qaeda-type desperados. Soon enough, criminal and terrorist groups set up “shop” there.

Whatever these groups lacked in scruples and ideals, they more than made up for in weapons and ruthlessness. And to each of them, everyone else is fair game.

Algeria next door has the military might to quell militants in the border (with Mali) area, but is hesitant to do so. A common rationale is that action can have consequences, and the border with Mali is long.

But what does the border or its length have to do with taking action against dangerous militants? Generally, the Algerian government is not too keen to act when the militants are drifting from Algeria into Mali.

In Mali itself, the government is anxious to act against militants but its military forces lack the capacity to do so. The plight in each country seems to complement that of the other, without being complimentary to either.

In this state of dual paralysis, various armed groups drift easily across the border. The situation is like that in the Afghan-Pakistani border area, only more so.

The Western intelligence services are fully aware of these developments for some time. However, action had been limited to monitoring and occasional insertions of special forces teams. But the planning stages of militant activism easily plays under the radar. Then the steady build-up of militancy broke out in the open some two weeks ago.

At first, former colonial power France decided to keep its distance militarily. It would provide only aerial and logistical support for multinational African troops, so that France did not have to intervene directly.

That seemed to make perfect sense at the time, and still does.

The strong conventional military forces and their order of battle that France possessed made a poor “fit” with the guerilla tactics of militant groups in highly asymmetrical warfare, particularly in heavily built-up areas.

Then something appeared to have snapped in France’s official imagination. It sent in the “cavalry” with all guns blazing. Reportedly, French Mirage and Rafale fighter jets pounded suspected rebel strongholds with 250kg laser- and GPS-guided bombs for five solid days.

If such warfare against militant groups had been asymmetrical before, now it looked like pure, chao­tic disjuncture. Homes were targeted with the heavy-hitting bombs. Trucks on the road carrying both militants and hostages were strafed from the air.

Such clumsy attempts to hit the terrorists and criminals only made the militants dig in even more. They “embedded” themselves deep in the local community, effectively turning neighbourhoods into vast human shields.

That made the French aerial forays suddenly stop. Each side claimed victory, or at least denied defeat.

Then it was the turn of the militants to hit back. They retaliated by attacking and occupying a nearby gas plant in Algeria. In that operation, the militants netted more than 40 foreigners as hostages. Not only would foreign hostages command higher ransoms, they made the international news far better.

Then France sent in ground forces. Paris increasingly felt itself painted into a corner, with a steady escalation of military commitment but no clear resolution in sight.

The US refused to send in any troops. More than a dozen countries had pledged support for action in Mali, but only France had acted.

French sources said Paris had to act since the promised multinational African force had still to arrive. Now the key question for France is: what next?

Typically, a military mission of this sort – open-ended, deepening, almost in free fall – is thrust onto a country with little contingency planning. Any appearance of a solution is illusory.

How could French troops, many of them inexperienced young men unfamiliar with the local terrain, culture, language and even road directions, hope to overcome militants on their home ground?

The situation looked like the makings of yet another defeat of a Western power that had overstretched itself “out in the colonies”.

Apart from everything else, the fact that the French government could not do anything other than to try to add to the level of violence is a statement of sorts about President Francois Hollande’s administration.

For the militants, the gas plant seizure turned out to be a boon. The hostages included Algerians as well as Americans, Britons, Irish, Japanese, Malaysians and Norwegians.

The Algerian government was on the hotline with Washington and Paris for hours on end to see how the hostage situation could be overcome. Algiers even talked to Tuareg tribal elders in the area related to the hostage-takers. Then amid the talking about prospective talks, Algerian forces swung into action. With special forces troops on the ground and helicopters in the air surrounding the gas plant siege, troops hit the kidnappers in a bid to free the hostages.

That made the international news too, even if more had to die for that.

> Bunn Nagara can be reached at sunday@thestar.com.my

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