Close watch: A Thai soldier standing guard as his comrades inspect dead bodies of suspected insurgents after a clash with marines at a Navy base in Narathiwat province, southern Thailand. —EPA

As threats to security from non-state actors linger, Asean may yet gel around a renewed rationale.

ALTHOUGH policymakers everywhere tend to trumpet the gains of anti-terrorist actions, they should be the least impressed with the record so far.

When operating with few reliable benchmarks, sporadic success can easily breed a dangerous complacency. Dwelling on previous victories does not ensure future success, only obscure it.

Those tasked with making security policy ought to remain ahead of the curve, working with the best intelligence as a matter of course through constant monitoring derived from close surveillance, including infiltration.

Recent developments in this region offer not grounds for self-congratulation but a glimpse of how much more needs to be done. However, too often the result has been the opposite.

When Indonesian police in Central Sulawesi “arrested” terrorist suspect Imron last Sunday, local authorities might have been tempted into a sense of triumphalism. But that would have been unjustified.

Police had not tracked down and apprehended Imron. Instead, his father had persuaded him to surrender, and he relented only after reassurances from a local cleric.

This followed the arrest of another terrorist suspect, Maskoro (alias Abdul Salam, alias Koro, alias Saba) last month. Yet even taken together, these suspects are only two among the 24 known ones operating on just one of many Indonesian islands.

They are neither the most dangerous nor the most influential among the known suspects. Neither are they among the most elusive, which explains their custody.

Indonesia’s most wanted terrorist, Santoso (alias Abu Wardah, alias Abu Yahya) is still at large. He is an “ABC”: ambitious, brazen and charismatic, thus successful as a militant leader and the authorities’ worst nightmare.

There is currently no such “natural leader” among militants in southern Thailand. Neither is there an effective leader in Thailand’s anti-terrorism battle.

Dozens of separatist BRN-C (Barisan Revolusi National-Coordinate) militants attacked a Thai marine base in southern Narathiwat province just after midnight on Wednesday. The soldiers had been tipped off and set up an ambush, killing 16 militants while suffering no casualties.

The battle may have seemed a “win” for the authorities, but not in context. This shootout had followed a series of successful attacks by militants in recent weeks.

After this unexpected setback, the militants have decided to lie low. But this is no consolation either.

They now suspect a Thai agent had infiltrated their ranks, so a purge could come soon. Informants have been warned.

Successive Thai governments have done little to turn the situation around, other than heavier policing measures and an official insensitivity grating on local communities. As in Sulawesi, heavy-handed action by the authorities often worsens the tension.

Local communities blame Bangkok politicians for apathy and indifference, and the politicians blame the militants for not articulating any terms. The results are a lack of contact and a breakdown in communication, which feed into the sporadic and mindless violence.

Neither is there room for optimism. The only certainty is that the gunfight is in a long line of battles which are far from over.

Thai officials believe the militants had planned the raid as revenge for last Monday’s gunfight that killed a militant leader. Hours after they were beaten back this time, they set fire to a local school.

Arson is a typical reaction to a failed gunbattle. Since village headmen had reportedly tipped off the authorities this time, more revenge attacks against some villages are expected.

The central government in Bangkok is tempted to impose a curfew to curb further violence. But local residents and even local military commanders disagree, citing how a curfew as a blanket measure against all residents can affect the innocent and further inflame anti-Bangkok sentiments.

With these regional incidents as backdrop, the armed intrusion by about 100 Filipino gunmen in Lahad Datu, eastern Sabah in recent days may seem unsurprising.

Illegal entry into sovereign territory is a crime in itself, whether or not the offenders are armed. The fact that they are armed with an assortment of weapons only makes it worse.

Reports indicated even more troubling conduct by the intruders. They were said to have demanded food and water from villagers in Kampung Tanduao, forced them off their property, raised the Philippine flag, rejecting deportation and claiming a part of Sabah as the Sulu Sultanate.

Essentially, what they had attempted is an armed invasion under a foreign flag. To the extent that the Sultanate is supposedly sovereign, it is curious that the intruders had used a Philippine flag.

Since the incident does nothing to promote Malaysia-Philippine relations or understanding, Manila needs to clarify its position on the incident at the very least. After decades of separatist conflicts and negotiations in the southern Philippines for Muslim groups to use their own flag, this group for whatever reason is now raising the Philippine flag.

The “Sulu Sultanate” group is unlike the MNLF and MILF Moro groups in the southern Philippines, which have reached negotiated agreements with the Philippine government. Both had done so with the help of Malaysia as an honest broker.

This Sulu group, however, is like insurgent groups in Sulawesi and southern Thailand in being sub-state actors acting illegally, representing no established government authority yet laying claim to sovereign territory of an established state.

But unlike the other groups they are not even local, so they cannot possibly be deemed “separatist”. The heirs to the Sulu Sultanate were reported in 2008 to have relinquished their claims to Sabah.

Security may yet be Asean’s renewed raison d’être.

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