Despite some appearances to the contrary, the next round of nuclear talks with Iran seems hopeful.

TALKS on Iran’s disputed nuclear programme in Almaty, Kazakhstan, this Tuesday have already acquired two unlikely distinctions.

The “5+1” talks will carry the most political baggage than even previous rounds, yet they may be the most promising negotiations ever for all concerned. How did this happen?

Context is key: the circumstances around the talks have on all sides produced the best reasons yet for optimism.

The critical factors include Western sanctions, Israeli edginess, Iran’s internal politics and the country’s elections in June.

None of these on its own would have meant much, but in coming together they have triggered a secondary chain of events justifying the optimism.

As pressure on Iran and tensions all-round accumulated last year, sanctions put the squeeze on Teheran while Israel threatened military strikes.

At the same time, a chink in that edifice also emerged in the difference between US deal-making and Israeli militarism.

Israel could execute military strikes only with the active or passive backing of the US, but there was a policy space between them. After Israeli anxieties began to recede in October, Teheran surmised that keeping the West and Israel distant would be a smart option from then on.

Iran’s intelligence service calculated that minimising sanctions pressure and staving off Israeli threats made sense. It then counselled that Iran seriously take the diplomatic road.

However, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had long been a proponent of talks, while Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi was supposed to be an ally of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is averse to Ahmadinejad.

On Feb 2, US Vice-President Joe Biden proposed direct talks with Teheran if Iranian leaders were serious about diplomacy. That triggered a new round of domestic political intrigue in Iran.

Meanwhile, Khamenei has seen his traditional support base among religious conservatives and levers of power like the Intelligence Ministry dwindle away. And an election was due within months, with Khamenei’s and Ahmadinejad’s allies feuding fiercely for the presidency.

If Biden’s offer of direct (bilateral) talks surprised Iran, its positive reception from Iranian leaders surprised Western observers even more.

Among those who welcomed it was the Basij militia, the armed hardline revolutionary ideologists intolerant of political opposition.

But within days, Khamenei dumped cold water on Biden’s proposal. The stakes got higher.

Feeling somewhat isolated politically within Teheran, the Ayatollah had to rally the community of conservatives that had been his natural constituency.

With everyone else seeming to endorse the US offer, a too-cosy consensus in agreement with “the Great Satan” could produce a conservative backlash as an election drew near.

Apparently sensing this fettling of sentiments, Ahmadinejad now seemed to reject Biden’s offer. Three days after Khamenei’s apparent rebuff, the President said much the same in a formal speech.

The occasion was the 34th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution. It was an official speech on a public occasion in which Ahmadinejad could not be heard to have said otherwise.

He even used the same metaphor as Khamenei. After the Ayatollah said Iran would not yield to a gun pointed at its head, the President said Iran’s adversaries should stop “pointing the gun”.

Nonetheless, analysts have found that Ahmadinejad was not as dismissive of Biden’s offer as Khamenei had been. Even so, the Ayatollah himself had not categorically rejected the offer.

Given this unsettling ebb and flow of Iran’s political issues within the larger international landscape, some fundamental realities need to be remembered. Ten of these are particularly important.

First, no Iranian leader or group is seeking confrontation or conflict with anyone. These days, they are particularly busy trying to look and sound good to their own domestic constituencies.

Second, leaders of the different factions in government are even hoping to secure a nuclear deal as a prize and a political trophy ahead of the June elections. When once the only trophy was to be able to pout at the West, now things are more inward-looking as the economy weakens further.

Third, Washington’s abrupt offer of direct talks has put an interesting twist into Tuesday’s talks. But there is no virtue in overestimating the impact of Biden’s offer.

Fourth, no offer or threat is going to work in producing regime change in Teheran. Instead, the more external pressure is placed on Iran, the more Iranians become united and do so behind the present government.

Fifth, whoever wins the presidential election would not change Iran’s position on its nuclear programme. It is not only that the unelected Khamenei would not be affected by any election, but the country as a whole proudly stands by its national projects.

Sixth, presidential hopeful and current parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani is now depicted in Western circles as a dove, but he is no pushover either.

The personality differences between him and Ahmadinejad are ones of style and emphasis, while he is more likely to secure Khamenei’s support in office.

Seventh, for Tuesday’s talks to be fruitful, both the US and Iran need to compromise. Now each is waiting for the other to “unblink” first, with some positive gesture that the other can reciprocate.

Eighth, the five countries in the “5+1” talks, being the four permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany, should between them offer something new (such as recognition of Iran’s right to nuclear energy) for Iran to begin to respond.

The rest would be an unwinding of a stifling spiral that had already been wound too tightly.

• Cyclone takes the heat for hot weather
• If you want to go far work early and hard on personal branding
• AirAsia X offers free tickets to any destination for initial public offering to retail investors
• Doc held for posing as cop to extort businessman
• Allianz aims for RM150mil in new premiums
• Couple upset over baby’s death
• Malaysia's I-Bhd and Thailand's CPN in mall joint venture with GDV of RM580mil
• From tomorrow, city cabbies can pick up passengers from KLIA
• Najib wants Chinese in Cabinet
• Todd was under treatment for depression, public inquiry told