Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim seems confident of holding on to Selangor but he is probably not as sure of whether he will still be the Mentri Besar after the general election.

WATCHING Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim’s bid to dissolve the Selangor Legislative Assembly is like watching one of those TV series where each episode ends with a question mark about whether the hero will survive.

Last week, it seemed like Khalid was moving towards a dissolution after Chap Goh Meh. Then on Monday, he said Selangor would go along with the general election. A day later, he emerged from an audience with the Sultan to say that the Palace had no objection to the dissolution of the State Assembly.

So is the Mentri Besar going for a dissolution or what? No one can say for sure because Khalid, after all these years at the top, is still an enigma to even his own PKR members.

“Covering him is like covering Pak Lah. You just don’t know how to read them,” said a Selangor journalist.

But according to Selangor Speaker Datuk Teng Chang Khim, the Selangor assemblymen have given Khalid “full authority” to decide. “There is consensus on the dissolution, we’ve discussed all the factors. But the MB may have information we don’t have, so we will let him make the final decision,” said Teng.

Last year, when there was media speculation that Parliament would be dissolved, Khalid had declared that Selangor would not go along with the general election.

Coveted seat: Incumbent Mentri Besar Khalid (left) has been talking about dissolving the Selangor Legislative Assembly but his likely potential successor Azmin said a decision of such magnitude should not be made by an individual.

Back then, some Pakatan Rakyat politicians had even demanded that Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak consult the opposition on a suitable date – that must have sent the British, who are pioneers of the Westminster system, rolling on the floor with laughter. It was a good reminder of how the tsunami swept in good stuff as well as rubbish.

However, now that it looks like the Prime Minister is running the full marathon, Khalid is making noise about dissolving the Selangor Assembly.

People in Pakatan like to say that Khalid is not meant for politics but that need not mean he is without some tricks of his own. He is evidently using the dissolution card to keep his Barisan Nasional opponents dancing like cats on a hot tin roof.

Some people say Khalid should not go around declaring he will do it and then not do it because that will affect his credibility. But the rules of politics in this country have been turned upside down since the political tsunami. Politics has acquired a certain Arab Spring frenzy, never mind that the real Arab Spring has turned into the winter of discontent.

But it appears that Khalid may be trying to dissolve the State Assembly without consulting his party bosses.

Faizal: ‘Not painting hooray-hooray picture’

Selangor PKR chairman Azmin Ali, when asked about the dissolution matter, said: “Whatever policy in the state has to have the support of the Pakatan leaders. It should not be the policy of one person. Decisions have to be made based on consultation and consensus.”

Khalid is struggling to put on his gameface for the final lap. His administration has been unable to implement all of their election promises simply because they had made promises that could not be realistically implemented.

But he is apparently very sure of holding on to Selangor and Teng has even said that they will do better than 2008. “We are aiming for a two-thirds majority,” said Teng.

Their surveys show Khalid’s popularity is at more than 60% and that Pakatan will remain in power in Selangor, he said.

The confusing part for journalists covering Selangor is that the Barisan side is also saying they will take back Selangor. Barisan’s prediction is based on a seat-by-seat analysis of a variety of issues and voter sentiment. It is very detailed and meticulous as anyone who has been to their war room in Shah Alam would know.

The war room commander is of course Datuk Seri Mohd Zin Mohamed, the Barisan coordinator for Selangor. He said 22 seats are considered white for Barisan, 16 are in the grey zone and another 18 are what he termed as “tough”.

“We are working hard to get the marginal seats,” he said.

Barisan is more grounded these days as opposed to the years when they thought they were the Masters of the Universe. They are as hungry to win back Selangor as Pakatan is about holding on to power. They have been humbled by defeat and are less prone to talking big.

“We don’t want to paint a hooray-hooray picture but we have put in a lot of effort and we are positive that we will make it,” said Datuk Faizal Abdullah, deputy treasurer for the state Barisan.

Najib, who is Selangor Barisan chief, has spent a lot of time in the state. But it is still anybody’s guess which way Selangor will go.

Barisan’s problem is that it has yet to identify their potential Mentri Besar. People want to know because this election is going to be about the quality of candidates. Selangoreans want a top quality Mentri Besar.

Pakatan has the edge on this count but its problem is that it has two rival candidates – the incumbent Khalid and the would-be successor Azmin Ali.

Teng: ‘Aiming for a twothirds majority’

The inner circle of PKR say that Azmin is waiting in the wings as Khalid enters his swan song months as Mentri Besar. They point to the way that PKR de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim had made Khalid sweat when he announced a few months ago that Khalid would contest in Bandar Tun Razak while keeping silent on the latter’s Ijok state seat. Azmin followed up and said that Khalid’s talents were needed at the federal level.

It was very embarrassing for Khalid and his supporters were furious.

But Azmin has tried to downplay his likely takeover of Khalid’s job.

“I don’t want to entertain speculation but it’s important that the MB is someone who does not act unilaterally and who has support within the party leadership. The selection is still on and as far as I am concerned, Khalid will represent Ijok and Bandar Tun Razak. But I will not discount that some candidates will be replaced,” he said.

Azmin is playing a very sophisticated game ahead of the polls. At public functions, he praises Khalid for a doing a good job in Selangor but everyone knows that they cannot stand each other and it shows in their body language.

During the last Hari Raya, he was received at open house events as though he was already the Mentri Besar. At one function, people were trying to shake his hand through the window of his moving car. He made it a point to go to the Lembah Pantai PKR open house to dispel talk that he is at odds with his vice-president Nurul Izzah and also the open house of Mustaffa Kamil Ayob, the man he defeated for the deputy president post.

He is the ultimate political animal, and that is what makes him so dangerous to Khalid.

During the state government’s Chinese New Year open house, Khalid and his state exco stood on the stage decked in red clothes, beaming big smiles and looking as though they had won the election. The good life of power and privilege is showing because a number of them are looking quite “prosperous”, the Chinese way of saying that one is getting round and chubby.

A hallmark of the lunar new year is greetings of good wishes but when Khalid held up a red scroll with Chinese calligraphy, it was another political slogan: “Destroy the old, welcome the new”.

Despite the power play for the Mentri Besar post between the two PKR leaders, DAP will be the one to emerge as the dominant party in Selangor because the Chinese mood is still with them.

Barisan currently has 20 seats against Pakatan’s 36. The Pakatan sweep was thanks to the perfect storm that blew through the peninsula. It would need another perfect storm for Pakatan to hold on to all its seats or to secure the two-thirds majority that Teng spoke of.

Mohd Zin: ‘Battle in Malay and mixed seats’

Most analysts still think the state could swing either way depending on two factors. One is the choice of candidates and the other is the new voters.

Selangor has the highest number of new voters, followed by Johor, Perak, Sabah and Sarawak. There will be a total of 455,000 first-time voters in Selangor this election and they could be the kingmakers in a number of seats.

Both sides are equally nervous about this group because they are new and hard to predict. Pakatan leaders claimed they will get the bulk of the young votes since young people are quite naturally anti-establishment. Barisan politicians said that, on the contrary, young people, especially Malays, had voted for Barisan in the last few by-elections.

Selangor is 53% Malay and 46% non-Malay. The real battleground, said Mohd Zin, will be in the Malay and mixed seats held by PAS and PKR. Barisan has to win in these seats to win Selangor.

According to a Barisan insider, the coalition is confident it has secured the edge over the Malay and Indian voters in Selangor. All it needs is 35% of the Chinese vote to secure the mixed seats.

But Khalid is taking his fight to another level. A few days ago, he ordered a review of all federal projects planned in Selangor. He is basically telling the Barisan that if it tries to be funny with him, he has the authority to stop these infrastructure projects worth billions of ringgit. He is cracking the whip and holding the federal government to ransom. The backlash, however, will also hurt Selangoreans and the local economy.

The latest development has left people wondering whether this is a case of cutting off the nose to spite the face or a tough-talking strategy on the part of the enigmatic Khalid.

> Joceline Tan can be reached at joceline@thestar.com.my

• Cyclone takes the heat for hot weather
• AirAsia X offers free tickets to any destination for initial public offering to retail investors
• If you want to go far work early and hard on personal branding
• Doc held for posing as cop to extort businessman
• Allianz aims for RM150mil in new premiums
• Couple upset over baby’s death
• Malaysia's I-Bhd and Thailand's CPN in mall joint venture with GDV of RM580mil
• From tomorrow, city cabbies can pick up passengers from KLIA
• Najib wants Chinese in Cabinet
• Todd was under treatment for depression, public inquiry told