Both Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat are trying to whip up their respective supporters as the campaign edges towards the big day.

THE crowds at DAP ceramah are growing and, as anyone who has been to one would know, it is predominantly Chinese.

Those supporting the party are very upfront about it. They surround the stage, clapping and cheering at everything that is said.

They put their money where their mouth is - they hand over red and even big blue notes when the collection box goes around while in Penang, the “Ubah” soft toy has been sold out.

The ones who hang around at the back are quieter and harder to read. They will just smile when you try to strike up a conversation, some of them will not even say whether they are voting in the area while others quickly walk away.

The joke among reporters is that these are the ones planning to vote for Barisan Nasional but are afraid to say so for fear of being scolded or bullied by DAP supporters.

It used to be that the pro-Barisan supporters were the vocal and aggressive ones but the tables have turned and the aggressors are now on the other side.

This is especially so in cyber space and in urban centres like Penang, the Klang Valley and Kinta Valley where the Chinese dominate political discussion and harangue anyone who does not toe their line.

The Chinese mood, after more than a week of campaigning, has not softened for the Barisan. The conventional wisdom is that only about 20% of the Chinese vote is firmly committed to Barisan in the urban seats.

Some call it an urban wave, others say it is a largely Chinese wave. It is nothing as devastating as the political tsunami of 2008 where the Indians and Malays also came along but it is giving the Barisan a big urban headache.

The thing about this Chinese wave is that it has sent a counter Malay wave surging towards Barisan. There is no denying that the outcome of this general election will be decided in a big way by the politics of race.

Some political observers are already talking about “a nation divided” after May 5 where the Chinese will dominate on one side and the Malays on the other. This is perhaps best illustrated in the contest for Gelang Patah where the Chinese sentiment seems to be for DAP’s Lim Kit Siang while the Malay mood is very cold and even hostile towards him.

The Chinese say they like Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak and agree that he has been an able and hardworking Prime Minister, but many of them have also bought into DAP’s “Ubah” or change message. Yet, very few have actually thought about the nitty-gritty of whether the Chinese wave can actually take Pakatan Rakyat into Putrajaya.

Lawyer Khaw Veon Szu, who was the head of a think tank, explained it well in an article he wrote for a financial paper.

Pakatan won 82 of the 222 parliamentary seats in 2008. It would need to win at least 30 more seats to form the government. This means becoming the government with only 112 seats and by a simple majority of one seat.

For that to happen, said Khaw, Pakatan needs a perfect political storm not unlike that of the political tsunami in 2008.

Thirty seats may not sound like a lot until one considers that most of the seats that have a significant Chinese electorate have already been won by Pakatan. DAP, in particular, has won most of the Chinese seats or, as some put it, DAP has more or less “maxed out” in the peninsula.

Johor is the only state in the peninsula with Chinese seats still held by MCA. That is why Pakatan is making such a big play for Johor and also Sabah and Sarawak.

Pakatan has to win at least 10 parliamentary seats in each of these three states and very few can see them achieving that.

Moreover, Pakatan is also assuming that they will be able to hold on to every single seat that they won in 2008. This is not going to be the case given that Kedah is on the verge of falling while in Kelantan, Barisan is on course to win another six parliamentary seats to the two it already has.

According to Khaw’s article, the jury is still out on Pakatan’s bid for Johor seats.

As for Sabah and Sarawak, apart from a few Chinese seats, a fractious Pakatan and its allies are not expected to pose a serious challenge to Barisan’s control over the two states.

The Barisan goal is to hold on to power and also regain its two-thirds majority. Most political pundits, said Khaw, are of the view that Barisan will form the next government but are less sure about whether it can regain its two-thirds majority.

In that sense, Barisan would need a perfect storm of its own to achieve a two-thirds majority victory.

In short, said Khaw, both Barisan and Pakatan are seeking perfect storms of their own to achieve their respective political agendas – one to defend and enhance its power and the other to wrest federal power.

The last time the opposition made such a strong bid for federal power was in 1990 when Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah led a loose coalition of opposition parties against Barisan. He failed but Kelantan fell to PAS. This time the bid is coming on the strength of four state governments under Pakatan rule.

Barisan officials insist that many Chinese see Najib as the credible leader for the country. They believe that he will get their support on May 5.

They also said that victory is in Najib’s hands because increased Malay and Indian support will easily carry him past the 138 seats won under Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s leadership. The only question left, they said, is the margin of the win.

For more election stories, please visit The Star’s GE13 site

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