Johor Mentri Besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Othman

The likelihood of Johor Mentri Besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Othman contesting the Gelang Patah parliamentary seat has put a spanner in the works for the DAP, which has named Lim Kit Siang as its candidate.

THIS is the time of the year in Johor where cool winds blow in from the South China Sea. Some claim it signals the winds of change that Pakatan Rakyat has been talking about since DAP leader Lim Kit Siang arrived to contest in Gelang Patah.

Anyone who has been to a DAP ceramah in Johor would be inclined to agree.

The crowds have been massive especially when Lim is featured.

They cheer and clap and it sounds like a football match with the vuvuzela honking every five minutes.

The DAP Ubah truck converts into an impressive looking stage and hundreds of chairs are provided.

But it looks like a wholly Chinese wind.

As some have noted, the Chinese in Johor are getting their first taste of political ceramah and they are thrilled to bits.

The DAP in Johor has never experienced anything like this and they had thought that they were on the way to victory.

That is, until a few days ago when news broke that Mentri Besar Datuk Ghani Othman was preparing to take on Lim in Gelang Patah.

Who would have thought that the slow and steady Ghani could have become a gamechanger of this sort?

But he has, and suddenly, the DAP game plan has been turned upside down.

The mood on the DAP side has gone from “sure win” to “50:50” and all Ghani has said is that he will contest where the Prime Minister wants him to.

The word from Putrajaya is that the fight is on and a team has even been set up to prepare the groundwork.

The reason why the Barisan Nasio­nal side has yet to issue an official confirmation is because they want to be absolutely sure that Lim does not run.

They had seen how Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim played the “yes, maybe, no” game about moving from Permatang Pauh to Perak.

The Barisan leaders see Gelang Patah as the golden opportunity to send the elderly Lim off into the sunset.

A think-tank monitoring the situation in Gelang Patah noticed the dramatic change in statistics ever since news about Ghani’s im­­pending move broke.

A Gelang Patah survey among the Chinese on March 25 had shown that 54% of them would vote for Lim in Gelang Patah while the rest were in the “not-sure”, “don’t know” and “against” categories.

However, a day after news about a Lim-Ghani fight broke, only 34% of the Chinese were still firmly committed to Lim.

The undecided Chinese had increased from 23% to 32%.

The “don’t know” category had also increased from 7% to 27%.

But, even more stunning than that, a more qualitative survey conducted after the Ghani news came out showed that not a single one of the Malays interviewed said that they were planning to vote for Lim.

“It’s probably too early to draw conclusions but it does look like the tsunami is over in Johor,” said a member of the think-tank.

The air has started to hiss out of the DAP balloon.

Lim’s image problem among the Malays has not diminished.

All those years of slamming the NEP, the civil servants, police and of course Umno has given him and his party a distinctly anti-Malay image.

And it is all coming home to roost in Gelang Patah.

Moreover, Ghani is one of the least Malay-centric leaders in Umno.

No one has ever heard of any Ketuanan Melayu-type of statements from him and he is well-regarded among the Chinese in Johor.

Unlike many politicians, he does not shoot his mouth off nor is he publicity-crazy.

The local media often complain that trying to get comments from him is like digging for gold from his mouth.

Barisan insiders said that it was Lim who opened the gate for a Malay challenge against him.

About a fortnight ago, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad said that it was time for Lim, who is 72, to retire.

Lim responded by telling Dr Mahathir to stand against him.

Instead of Dr Mahathir, Lim is getting the Mentri Besar himself.

A PAS ceramah in a quiet Malay village near the Port of Tanjung Pelepas on Saturday night drew barely 100 people.

It was quite a sad turnout given the amount of effort put in and the fact that food and drinks were laid out.

Moreover, the key speaker was PAS vice-president Salahuddin Ayub who would be contesting the Nusa­jaya state and Pulai parliamentary seats.

The PAS workers there said it was considered a good crowd because they could barely get 20 people at their events during the 2008 general election.

The ceramah was also to launch the hastily constructed party operations centre.

Lim was one of the scheduled speakers but this was a packed evening for him and he arrived at 11.15pm, spoke for about 10 minutes and rushed off to a DAP ceramah where he was the final speaker.

Lim’s Chinese rights image sits well among the Chinese but does not go well with the Malays.

His presence in Johor has strengthened the Malay vote for Barisan.

He is not the only one struggling to get the Malay vote.

PAS and PKR candidates would have problems on the Malay ground.

For more election stories, please visit The Star’s GE13 site

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