Sunday December 24, 2006
Are we ready for nuclear energy?
THE quaint coastal town of Kuantan often referred to as the gateway to the east coast became the focal point of an important meeting recently.
Malaysia hosted the 7th Forum For Nuclear Cooperation in Asia (FNCA) in the famed Teluk Cempedak beach.
The high-profile gathering saw senior government officials and top nuclear experts in the region exchanging ideas and information on the effective utilisation of nuclear science and technology.
Bangladesh, previously an observer, became the newest member of the FNCA grouping this year. The others are Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia.
Japan, by virtue of their present nuclear capabilities, arrived with the largest number of delegates led by its senior deputy minister of Cabinet office Katsuei Hirasawa.
Other notable figures included commissioner of the Japan Atomic Energy Commission Dr Sueo Machi, China Atomic Energy Authority chairman Sun Qin, South Korea Atomic Energy Bureau director-general Lee Mun Ki and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director for Asia and the Pacific Prinath Dias.
Malaysia was represented by Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Datuk Seri Dr Jamaluddin Jarjis, ministry's deputy secretary-general (operations) Datin Zuraidah Muhamed and Malaysian Nuclear Agency or previously known as Malaysian Institute for Nuclear Technology Research (Mint) director-general Dr Daud Mohamad.
The three-day meeting was largely off-limits to the media with the exception of the opening ceremony in which Dr Jamaluddin delivered the welcoming speech.
He stressed that the necessary multilateral legal instruments to ensure a peaceful use of nuclear energy in the South-East Asian region was already in place.
“All countries should be given democratic rights and access to develop nuclear technology for peaceful uses.
“The recent steep rise in global oil prices has resulted in a steady growth and renewed interest in nuclear power generation around the world, particularly Asia,” he said at the outset of the meeting.
How ready then is Malaysia towards preparing itself to embrace nuclear technology?
Already there are many questions being raised by the public over the security aspects and the possibility of a Chernobyl, albeit on a localised magnitude.
Do our scientists have the expertise to maintain the reactor and ultimately, manage the nuclear waste without harming the environment?
Being an optimist, Dr Jamaluddin was quick to scoff at the naysayers, arguing Malaysia needed to, akin to a Malay adage, “sediakan payung sebelum hujan.” (prepare the umbrella before it rains)
“We cannot afford to sit back and wait for our fossil fuels to deplete before taking action,” he reasoned.
A pertinent argument centred around Japan which managed to convince its citizens to agree to the construction of nuclear power plants by putting behind the ghost of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Presently, Japan has 55 commercial nuclear power plants in operation with the combined capacity of 50 GWe, of which annual output accounts for about one-third of national electricity generation.
One may put forth a contention that Japan's situation is different from that of Malaysia which has an abundance of natural resources.
However, in the country's quest to be a developed nation by 2020, the demand for energy is expected to double and this would place greater dependency on fossil fuels.
Latest statistics showed in 2005, crude oil and natural gas made up the bulk of the 57,380 kilotonnes of oil equivalent (ktoe) of the country's energy supply.
Malaysia’s total primary energy demand is expected to expand from 56 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2002 to 147 mtoe by 2030, or 2.6 times.
In 2000, the previous four-fuel diversification strategy (oil, hydro, gas and coal) had been switched to include renewable energies such as biomass and solar, in the list.
With time, the country's oil reserve is expected to last for 17 years and its natural gas reserve for another 34 years.
What then will the future hold for Malaysia, notwithstanding a projected GDP to be around US$860bil and a population of some 36.1 million in 2030?
The good news is Malaysia has no plan to opt for nuclear power generation for now but several measures have been discreetly adopted.
Firstly, Mint has been renamed the Malaysian Nuclear Agency in a move seen as preparing the mindset of the people towards the possibility of a policy shift in the near future.
Without divulging the cost involved, Dr Jamaluddin said plans were afoot to acquire a 20m megawatts nuclear reactor to replace the one megawatt facility in Bangi.
The ministry will be seeking a higher allocation under the 10th Malaysia Plan to develop its nuclear energy potential.
“Within the next five to seven years, we should see some results,” he said, adding that his ministry was in the midst of bringing together 66 local scientists who are PhD holders in nuclear studies to carry out R & D work in nuclear power.
Despite these developments, Malaysia still has a long way to go as a reactor of at least 1,200 megawatts is needed to kick start power generation activities.
Recently, China has acknowledged that their country's annual growth of some 10% could not be sustained without nuclear power capacity.
The superpower is actively pursuing to increase its nuclear power capacity of 8GW to 40GW before 2020, which accounted for 4% of total electrical power.
Indonesia and Vietnam too have announced their readiness to develop both non-power and power applications of nuclear energy to sustain the socio-economic development of their countries.
Dr Sueo Machi, who is also the Japan FNCA co-ordinator, noted with concern in his report three pertinent points.
Firstly, energy demand of FNCA developing countries will rapidly increase in the next two to three decades due to their rapid socio-economic development.
Secondly, more than 85% of energy is derived from fossil fuels even though most FNCA countries have very limited reserves per capita.
Thirdly, dependency on oil import is increasing while energy price has been sharply rising in the past years.
Hence, he stressed that the most important policy therefore is the assurance of a continuous energy supply for a sustainable development.
“Climate change caused by increasing CO2 emission and air pollution due to sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxide from burning fossil fuels can be mitigated with nuclear power,” he charged.
Presently, there are 422 nuclear power plants (NPPs) in operation supplying 16% of electricity worldwide.
Dr Sueo Machi concluded that global energy demand is set to increase by 53% in 2030.
“At least 70% of this increase comes from developing countries while CO2 emissions will reach 40Gt or 55% increase over today’s level,” he said.
As of now, to ensure sustainability, Malaysia will have no choice but to explore various energy mix and seek cooperation within Asean through the trans-Asean gas pipeline vision and trans-Asean electric network projects.
In the event that nuclear power is to be considered, several key issues need to be addressed properly by the Government.
Among them are public acceptance, financing and sitting for nuclear power plants, national capacity building in terms of human resources and industrial infrastructure development, as well as safety regulations.
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