Wednesday September 30, 2009
Age-group poser
By HOPE YEN
The growing number of centenarians poses a new challenge for an ageing population.
IT’S starting to get crowded in the 100-year-olds’ club. Once virtually non-existent, the world’s population of centenarians is projected to reach nearly six million by mid-century. That’s pushing the median age towards 50 in many developed nations and challenging views of what it means to be old and middle-age.
The number of centenarians already has jumped from an estimated few thousand in 1950 to more than 340,000 worldwide today, with the highest concentrations in the United States and Japan, according to the latest Census Bureau figures and a report released by the National Institute on Aging.
Their numbers are projected to grow at more than 20 times the rates of the total population by 2050, making them the fastest growing age segment.
Ripe old age: Elderly people working out with wooden dumb-bells to celebrate Japan’s Respect For The Aged Day. The number of centenarians in Japan has topped 40,000 for the first time, a government survey showed on Sept 11, 2009. Demographers attribute booming long-livers to decades of medical advances and improved diets, which have reduced heart disease and stroke. Genetics and lifestyle also play a factor. So, too, do doctors who are more willing to aggressively treat the health problems of people once considered too old for such care.
“My parents are 86 and 87 and they’re going strong, with my dad driving all over the place, so I’ve already told my financial planners that I’m going to live to at least 96,” said Susan Ryckman, 61, as she walked around New York City, an iPod and iPhone in hand. As long as I’m not mentally and physically infirmed, I’d like to live as long as I can,” she said.
Japan, known for its low-fat staple of fish and rice, will have the most centenarians in 2050 – 627,000, or nearly 1% of its total population, according to census estimates. Japan pays special respect to the elderly and has created a thriving industry in robotics – from dogs and nurses to feeding machines – to cater to its rapidly ageing population. Italy, Greece, Monaco and Singapore, aided by their temperate climates, also will have sizable shares of centenarians, most notably among women.
In the United States, centenarians are expected to increase from 75,000 to more than 600,000 by mid-century. Those primarily are baby boomers hitting the 100-year mark. Their population growth could add to rising government costs for the strained Medicare and Social Security programmes.
“The implications are more than considerable, and it depends on whether you’re healthy or sick,” said Dr Robert N. Butler, president and chief executive of the International Longevity Center, a New York-based non-profit group specialising in ageing. “Healthy centenarians are not a problem, and many are. But if you have a demented, frail centenarian, they can be very expensive.”
Butler predicted a surge in demand in the United States for nursing homes, assisted living centres and other special housing, given the wave of ageing boomers who will be at increased risk for Alzheimer’s disease. He said federal and state governments may have to re-evaluate retirement benefits, age limits on driving and Medicare coverage as they struggle to redefine what it means to be old.
Wan He, a Census Bureau demographer who co-wrote the ageing report, said families also will face more pressure. She noted that because of declining birth rates, there will be fewer family members to provide support if an older parent gets sick.
“For the current middle-aged people, it will be comforting to think they can live past 80,” she said. “At the same time, we might see 70-year-old ‘kids’ taking care of their centenarian parents. It’s a very stressful job, it’s not paid, and it can have a lot of psychological influences for the caretakers.”
Census estimates show:
● Come 2017, it will be the first time there will be more people 65 and older than there will be kids younger than five.
● The population of people 80 and older is projected to increase 233% by 2040, compared with a 160% increase for people 65 and over and 33% for the total population of all ages.
● Childlessness among European and US women age 65 in 2005 ranged from less than 8% in the Czech Republic to 15% in Austria and Italy. About 20% of women 40 to 44 in the United States in 2006 were childless.
● Due to low birth rates, Japan’s median age will increase from 37 in 1990 to 55 by 2050. The median age for the world during that same period will rise from 24 to 37, slowed by younger populations in Latin America and Africa.
● The median age in the United States will edge higher from 33 to 39, kept low by higher rates of immigration.
In the United States, experts say rising rates of obesity for people who are more sedentary or eat too much junk food could take a toll on life expectancy. A recent Pew Research Center poll of 2,969 adults found that Americans, on average, would like to live to 89; the current life-span is 78. One in five people would like to live past 90, while 8% would like to pass the century mark.
“Our motto is that dancing boomers are forever young,” said Julie Dahlman, 62, co-founder of a 300-member boomers social club in Portland, Oregon, that hosts dances, golf outings, hikes and wine tastings. Dahlman said that after caring for a 92-year-old mother with Alzheimer’s, she knew it was important to live life to its fullest.
“I’m silly with my girlfriends, and we still have a slumber party once in a while,” Dahlman said. “We’re not going to go away quietly.” – AP
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