Tuesday December 2, 2008

Risk-taker Chavez gambles future on reelection

By Frank Jack Daniel

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez is gambling his future on a referendum to change the constitution so he can run for reelection, despite mixed state election results last week and falling oil prices threatening the economy.

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez speaks to supporters as he attends a swearing-in ceremony for Mayors of Carabobo state in Valencia December 1, 2008. (REUTERS/Miraflores Palace/Handout)

Socialist Chavez lost a similar bid to amend the constitution last year and must leave office in 2013 unless he convinces voters to alter the rules. On Monday, he launched a campaign for a referendum to allow him to run for office again.

A risk-taking former soldier who first tried to take power in a coup in 1992, Chavez believes he can win a vote early next year before plummeting oil prices hits Main Street in the crude-export dependent nation.

"I'm here to stay," Chavez said, a little over a week after losing some ground in state and city elections. "We are going to win ... overwhelmingly, with a knockout."

Still popular for his humble roots and attention to the poor, Chavez has nurtured no obvious successor. A defeat would end his dream of governing for at least another 10 years and give opponents new hope of winning the presidency.

"If he loses, that would be pretty decisive, it would make him frankly a lame duck president," said Steve Ellner author of "Rethinking Venezuelan Politics."

The anti-U.S. leader hopes to keep opponents busy blocking his bid instead of focusing on governing in the populous states they won in Nov. 23 votes.

Chavez, 54, interpreted the results as a broad victory despite opposition gains and now aims to deepen socialist policies such as dividing up big farms and increasing state control over the economy.

VETERAN CAMPAIGNER

Chavez has campaigned constantly since taking office a decade ago. He won every national vote until the last year when voters rejected his plan to build a socialist economy and maintain him in power as long as he kept winning elections.

Eight days ago, he claimed victory again when his Socialist Party won the majority of states and 80 percent of city halls in elections from the nation's vast plains to its Andean peaks.

While the party garnered a million more votes than the opposition, it lost Caracas and the teeming suburbs, meaning Chavez opponents now govern almost half the population.

Chavez may realize that with crude prices collapsing, it is now or never for his bid to stay in power.

"There's no tomorrow, no, no. It's now, now," he said.

Chavez's popularity has been underpinned by high spending on clinics, schools and cheap food for the poor in the OPEC nation he has allied with Cuba and Russia.

But oil has dropped about $100 a barrel since July and he may have to slow spending if it does not recover quickly.

"The economic situation is going to get worse due to falling oil prices and so if he's going to make a move it would be sensible to make it right away," said Ellner.

He added that Chavez "has all the reason in the world to think he will win."

Chavez wants the constitutional amendment proposal ready in February but has not specified a date for the referendum.

Polls give the president about 60 percent approval ratings, his party is Venezuela's strongest and can expect to mobilize more supporters in a referendum on his future than for November's elections.

Many analysts believe the president lost last year's referendum because voters feared it would usher in Cuban-style socialism. A new amendment will likely be limited to one article on term limits.

But the multi-party opposition is stronger than for years and is expected to unite to block the constitutional revision.

"Chavez is taking a huge gamble that is unlikely to pay off and from which he will not easily recover," said Patrick Esteruelas, an analyst with Eurasia group. "Chavez will not be able to explain another unequivocal defeat at the polls."

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