Tuesday March 18, 2008

Divergences work in favour of Myanmar junta

By SALMAN HAIDAR

PERSISTENT efforts by UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari to encourage political change in Myanmar seem to have had some impact, but the further outcome is uncertain. In recent months, Gambari has visited Myanmar three times to try to persuade the ruling junta to be flexible towards Aung San Suu Kyi, thereby opening the way to democracy.

The generals, who have reigned for two decades with surly disregard for internal protest and international criticism, were jolted by last year's street protests led by Buddhist monks that spread across the country.

The world was shocked and alarmed, the UN Security Council weighed in, and demands for action against Myanmar’s rulers made.

Though no concerted action proved possible, the UN dispatched an envoy to try to improve human rights practices and encourage moves towards democracy. This is no easy task: an earlier UN envoy with much the same mission persevered for some years but failed to get very far, the junta alternately encouraging and shutting him out.

But in the changed circumstances and with stronger international backing, Gambari seems to have been able to make greater headway. He has had a few meetings with significant personalities, including the military leaders and the incarcerated Suu Kyi.

At his urging, a minister of relations has been appointed to seek reconciliation between the junta and its democratic opponents. Suu Kyi herself has sufficiently been encouraged by these developments to make hopeful statements in recent months, expressing willingness to cooperate with the regime for the benefit of the country.

Gambari was again in Myanmar a few days ago where he met top personalities once more. Something seems to be stirring.

Yet these hopeful signs are balanced by discouraging ones. On his latest visit Gambari was unable to meet the chairman of the junta, Senior General Than Shwe.

Nor did he succeed in persuading the regime to permit a three-sided meeting between himself, Suu Kyi and a junta representative. This proposal was dismissed as “interference,” and rejected with the usual rhetoric about upholding national prerogatives and refusing to bow to external pressure.

Myanmar has experience in stonewalling attempts by the UN and other international bodies hoping to persuade it to change. Thus, Than Shwe recently announced that he was ready to meet Suu Kyi, but on the condition that she stopped opposing his regime.

Some observers see the small signs of flexibility extracted by Gambari as essentially intended to head off the tough sanctions the UN Security Council could impose. In this view, there is no change of intent on the part of the junta, only an adjustment of tactics to deal with an immediate problem.

There is now little expectation that the referendum on the new Constitution slated for May this year will make any real difference. Gambari had asked for international observers to oversee the referendum, but it was dismissed on grounds that observers would infringe of Myanmar’s sovereignty.

There are enough divergences within the international community to prevent a smooth and solid front taking shape against Myanmar, so that the junta has been able to find ways of surviving, even prospering.

The United States recently renewed its economic sanctions for another year. But there are others to take up the slack, so Myanmar can obtain all the goods it needs from abroad, including the lethal weaponry for perpetuating the junta.

From the start, the principal foreign supplier of goods has been China, whose policy of engagement has never been deflected by international pressures. The rapid growth of trade and communication links has underpinned a well-established and expanding relationship between the two countries.

In South-East Asia, Asean has remained cautious in expressing and acting upon its disapproval of Myanmar’s policies. Thus for all the international admiration showered on her, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s incarceration has made no decisive difference to compel the junta to adjust its ways. – The Korea Herald / Asia News Network

The writer is a former foreign minister of India.

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