Saturday October 24, 2009

PREVIEW - Turkish PM to visit Iran amid foreign policy worries

By Ibon Villelabeitia

ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Iran next week adds to concerns that Ankara may be slowly turning its back on its Western allies and seeking to regain its status as a regional power in the Middle East.

Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan talks to his counterparts Vladimir Putin of Russia and Silvio Berlusconi of Italy during a video link in Ankara, October 22, 2009. (REUTERS/Kayhan Ozer/Prime Minister's Press Office/Handout)

Following what Turks saw as Arab betrayal in World War One, Turkey made joining the elite club of Western powers its number one foreign policy objective, joining NATO in 1952 and first applying to join the European Economic Community in 1963.

Nearly 50 years on, Muslim Turkey is still kept at arms length by the European Union, but now having the world's 17th biggest economy, and half a million-strong army, it has the potential to become a powerhouse in its eastern backyard.

Erdogan has steadily expanded Turkey's influence in the Middle East since his Islamist-rooted AK Party took power in 2002. He travels to Iran at a time of worsening ties between Turkey and its regional ally Israel and as Ankara hails recent bilateral deals with Syria and Iraq as signalling a "new era".

But some analysts warn an erosion of Ankara's Western oriented foreign policy could have long-term consequences for NATO and for U.S. efforts from Afghanistan to Iraq.

"There is a growing perception that Turkey is favouring its ties with countries such as Iran and Syria at the expense of Israel and the West and this is causing some concern," said Fadi Hakura, a Middle East expert at London's Chatham House.

Erdogan is in Pakistan on Saturday and Sunday, and Iran on Monday. Officials said he will discuss a wide range of issues, including energy deals and Iran's nuclear programme.

Following Turkish efforts to bring Afghanistan and Pakistan together in their fight against Taliban insurgencies, Erdogan will also try to mediate between Pakistan and Iran whose ties were strained over Sunday's bombing in Iran that killed 42 people. Iran says the bombers are based in Pakistan.

"We will try to help Pakistan and Iran deal with any problems they might have after the terrorist attack," said a senior Turkish government official.

Erdogan's visit to Iran comes two weeks after Turkey barred Israel from a NATO exercise, a decision that angered Israel and prompted rare criticism from Turkey's ally the United States. The war games were cancelled after other nations, including the United States and Italy, refused to take part without Israel.

Diplomatic relations between Turkey and Israel have suffered since Israel's offensive in the Gaza Strip last winter, in which Erdogan accused Israel of committing crimes against humanity.

The spat over the cancellation of the war games was raging when Turkey and Syria, Israel's foe, signed a raft of deals that Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu hailed as proof Ankara and Damascus shared "a common fate, history and future".

"It might be a coincidence of events, but it all shows a particular direction of Turkey's foreign policy," Hakura said.

STRATEGIC LOCATION

Soner Cagaptay, Turkish research coordinator from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said a deep change was underway in Turkey's foreign policy under the AK Party.

"The cancellation of the military exercises might be the beginning of the unravelling of Turkey-Israel relations," said Cagaptay, often critical of the government.

"NATO is a security club, not an ideological or religious club but for the first time Turkey said: 'We don't want to do this because Israel is working with NATO.' This raises questions if you think NATO's commitments in the next 10 years will be in Muslim countries. Turkey could opt out from NATO exercises."

Other analysts disagree Turkey is taking an "Islamic" foreign policy course, as AK Party's secularist opponents say.

They point to a visit by U.S. President Barack Obama in April as proof U.S.-Turkish ties were in good shape.

Turkey, which dreads the thought of a nuclear Iran, has said it is willing to mediate between Iran and the West over Tehran's controversial nuclear enrichment programme.

Bilateral trade reached $7 billion in 2008. Turkey's Energy Minister Taner Yildiz told Reuters this week he hoped the two countries could finalise a $3.5 billion deal to develop part of the world's largest gas field in Iran.

(Editing by Jon Hemming)

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