Wednesday November 25, 2009

Cyclones may come our way

THE recent landslides show just how fragile our hilly terrain can be during the monsoon season. This situation may become worse if a Tropical Cyclone (TC) were to hit the country like it did in the Philippines recently.

This scenario may seem far-fetched, but it can occur if a TC were to hit the hilly region of the peninsula. A TC is a large rotating wind system that is accompanied by very heavy rain for several days or even weeks.

The weakest form of TC is called a Tropical Depression (TD). A TD can evolve to form a stronger cyclone called a Tropical Storm (TS).

A TS should not be confused with the ordinary thunderstorm, which is smaller in scale and lasts for only a few hours. The TS can also evolve into the strongest form of TC, called a typhoon in the Pacific region and hurricane in the Atlantic.

Based on archived data available from some Western cyclone/hurricane-tracking websites such as the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Malaysia has been struck twice by TCs in the last 15 years. I have made a graphic representation of these TCs on a map.

TS Greg struck Sabah in 1996 and Typhoon Vamei struck Johor in 2001. At least six other TCs came perilously close to the peninsula in the last 50 years. In 1972, a full-blown typhoon which originated off Sabah headed towards Kota Baru before it changed direction and moved into the Gulf of Thailand.

In December 1996, just two weeks before TS Greg hit Sabah, a TD actually evolved off the coast of Kuantan. It first headed eastwards towards Sarawak but made a complete U-turn and headed westwards towards Kuala Terengganu before it died out at the entrance to the gulf.

The Gulf of Thailand can be considered a TC alley since most of the typhoons seem to pass through it, much like the renowned “Tornado Alley” in the US. However, the very erratic paths they take is a cause for concern, especially for those living on the east coast.

Ten years ago, Hurricane Mitch struck Honduras, a country that has dense tropical forest and very hilly terrain just like ours. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), the cyclone resulted in numerous landslides with nearly 20,000 people killed or missing in that sparsely populated country.

In the aftermath of Typhoon Vamei, the possibility of a TC hitting the heavily populated areas in the Malaysian peninsula should not be completely ruled out. We can expect thousands of landslides if a TC trekked from Kuantan towards Klang.

What Malaysia needs now is a general emergency procedure for the public to take should a TC seem likely to hit the peninsula. We already have periodic televised announcements of what the public should do in case of an impending flood situation, but we do not have any announcements for an impending TC.

One suggestion would be to give at least a 48-hour advance warning to those who occupy buildings (homes, schools, offices, factories etc.) located on hill slopes, foothills and riverbanks in the path of the TC. This can be done if a TC enters the South China Sea or is detected to originate anywhere in it.

Those affected should evacuate these buildings and head for safer locations elsewhere. Roads that ply the highlands should also be closed temporarily to traffic for the duration of the cyclone. This can substantially reduce the number of casualties if the projected landslides and flooding occur.

I hope the relevant government agencies will respond positively to this suggestion, since it is based on facts made available by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC). If advanced warning systems can be put into place at the cost of millions for a tsunami that had occurred just once, surely a similar warning system can be put in place for TCs that seem to occur with increasing regularity in the past few decades, perhaps due to global warming.

Earlier this week a possible TC had evolved off the coast of Pahang again, but only a heavy rain warning was issued by the weather authorities. Such a storm can have a devastating effect if it evolves into a full-blown TC and treks through the populated areas of the country unannounced (see http://weather.is.kochi-u.ac.jp/SE/00Latest.jpg, and http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg).

ZAHAR,

Kuala Lumpur.

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