Thursday March 26, 2009

North Korea readies missile, stokes alarm

By Jonathan Thatcher

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea has put a long-range missile in place for a launch the United States warned would violate U.N. sanctions imposed on the reclusive state for past weapons tests.

Musudan Ri, North Korea, formally know as Taepo-dong missile launch facility, the area where North Korea rocket launch facility is located is seen in this satellite image by DigitalGlobe taken on March 23, 2009. (REUTERS/DigitalGlobe/Handout)

South Korea said on Thursday the launch would be a serious challenge to security in the north Asian region, which accounts for one sixth of the global economy.

The planned launch, which regional powers see as a disguised military exercise, is the first big test for U.S. President Barack Obama in dealing with the prickly North, whose efforts to build a nuclear arsenal has long plagued ties with Washington.

The South Korean daily Chosun Ilbo quoted a diplomatic source as saying the North could technically fire the missile, which has the range to hit U.S. territory, by the weekend.

This is earlier than the April 4-8 timeframe Pyongyang announced for what it says is the launch of a communications satellite.

"Technically a launch is possible within three to four days," the Chosun Ilbo quoted a diplomatic source in Seoul as saying.

On Wednesday, a U.S. counter-proliferation official told Reuters that North Korea had appeared to have positioned the rocket on its launch pad.

The U.S. has spy satellites trained on the Taepodong-2 missile launch pad at North Korea's east coast Musudan-ri missile base.

Another U.S. official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said North Korea had placed together two stages of what is expected to be a three-stage rocket.

Once it has been positioned on the launch pad, North Korea will need several days to fuel the rocket which could, in theory, carry a warhead as far as Alaska. The only previous test flight of the rocket in July 2006 ended in failure when it blew apart within seconds of lift-off.

GROWING TENSION

"We strongly urge the North to immediately stop the launch of a long-range missile, which would be a clear violation of the U.N. Security Council resolution 1718," South Korean Defence Ministry spokesman Won Tae-jae told reporters, calling the move a serious challenge to regional security and an act of aggression.

South Korea plans to dispatch an advanced destroyer capable of tracking and shooting down missiles to waters off the east coast, Yonhap news agency quoted government sources as saying.

The planned launch and growing tension on the Korean peninsula are beginning to worry financial markets in the South though so far there has been only minor impact.

"If they really fire something, it would definitely shake the financial markets, but only briefly, as has been the case in many previous cases of provocation and clashes," said Jung Sung-min, a fixed-income analyst at Eugene Futures.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, during a visit to Mexico, said the launch would deal a blow to six-party international talks to end Pyongyang's nuclear weapons programme.

Those talks sputtered to a halt in December over disagreement on how to check the North was disabling its nuclear facilities.

"This provocative action ... will not go unnoticed and there will be consequences," she told reporters, repeating earlier warnings it could put the issue before the U.N. Security Council for additional sanctions.

CHINA TO BLOCK MORE SANCTIONS?

North Korea already faces a range of U.N. sanctions, some linked to its first nuclear test in 2006, and many analysts doubt new ones would get past China -- the nearest Pyongyang has to a powerful ally -- in the Security Council.

A successful launch this time would prove a huge boost at home to leader Kim Jong-il, whose illness last year -- widely thought to have been a stroke -- has raised questions over his grip on power.

A recent photograph in North Korean media showed the normally portly Kim to have lost a lot of weight and looking frail.

"A successful launch, coupled with international recognition of its nuclear capabilities, would also help secure the survival of the regime," said Koh Yu-hwan, Dongguk University professor of North Korea studies in Seoul.

It would also be a snub to the wealthy South, which hopes to launch its own satellite later this year, and whose conservative government Pyongyang has railed against for ending a once condition-free stream of aid.

North Korea taunted South Korean president Lee Myung-bak over the launch saying in its official KCNA news agency he is trying to stop it because: "It can only be a serious blow to the Lee group, which has been trying to suffocate its compatriots."

North Korea has given international agencies notice of the rocket's planned trajectory that would take it over Japan, dropping booster stages to its east and west.

Admiral Timothy Keating, head of U.S. Pacific Command, has said the U.S. military could with "high probability" intercept any North Korean missile heading for U.S. territory, if ordered to do so.

Pyongyang says any attempt to shoot down the rocket would be an act of war.

(Additional reporting by Randall Mikkelsen and Paul Eckert in Washington, Arshad Mohammed in Mexico City, Jack Kim, Park Jung-youn, Yoo Choonsik and Seo Eun-kyung in Seoul)

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