Wednesday February 10, 2010

Violence a wild-card as Thailand braces for protests

By Ambika Ahuja

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Red-shirted supporters of ousted Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra are gearing up for mass protests, but their goal of bringing down the government looks difficult, and stirring up violence will not help their cause.

A demonstrator holds a banner with pictures of exiled former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen during a rally outside the Cambodian Embassy in Bangkok in this October 27, 2009 file photo. (REUTERS/Chaiwat Subprasom/Files)

Mindful of unruly protests last April, the government is tightening security in Bangkok to prevent "hard-core elements" from starting riots this month, saying it had evidence Thaksin's supporters may resort to violence.

Clashes, however, could undermine popular support for either "red shirts" -- the mainly rural supporters of Thaksin -- against protesters clad in yellow - the royalists, urban elites and the military.

"Widespread violence on the scale of April 2009 is unlikely in the near term. The reds are in disarray and they have learned from the April riots. They may opt for a battle of attrition instead of an all-out showdown," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University.

Thitinan said conflict would continue to flare up and subside as long as the "red shirts" felt they were economically and politically marginalised by the elite.

Protests, he said, were more likely to take the form of a "drawn-out, topsy-turvy grind" rather than a showdown. But he said neither violence nor even a coup could be ruled out if current Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva fails to heal divisions.

"Abhisit's inability to bridge the divide means that pro-Thaksin forces can still win the next election. The army's current high command would rather see a coup than an election."

"Red shirt" protest leaders predicted on Tuesday more than a million people would rally on Bangkok in their "final gathering" for a Feb. 26 court ruling on whether Thai courts can confiscate $2.3 billion of Thaksin's assets.

MARKETS ON EDGE

Thai markets remain on edge at the prospect of violence.

The cost of insuring Thai sovereign debt has risen, with 5-year credit default swaps at a nine-month high, trading at a spread of 135.18 basis points compared with 111.50 last week, although other emerging market CDS have also risen.

In recent months, protests in Bangkok have been small, brief and peaceful, with the so-called "unelected elite" -- the judiciary, military and royal advisers -- among the targets.

But the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) has promised to hold a much larger and longer protest this month to oust Abhisit.

A starting date has not been announced and the strategy is unclear. But the leaders hope a verdict against Thaksin could be a rallying point to regain momentum. Neutral observers doubt they can sustain the movement and topple the government.

"It takes a lot of organising to effectively paralyse a government peacefully. It could fizzle out, especially with their leadership in dispute," said academic Sukhum Nuansakun.

Disunity is undermining the "red shirt" movement.

As the core leadership appeals for a drawn-out but peaceful rally, more militant supporters are indirectly warning about possible assassinations and proposing the formation of a "people's army" to counter a potential coup attempt.

"It's a public relations disaster, with mixed signals and spread-out targets," Sukhum said of a movement whose membership runs the gamut from rural Thaksin supporters to academics, anti-coup activists, politicians and eccentric military officers.

On Monday, government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said more than 20,000 army, police and civilian security officers would be deployed around the country and about 200 checkpoints set up at "every entry point into Bangkok".

Some on the government side are capitalising on the more violent "red shirt" rhetoric to fan fear. Rumours abound.

One senator, citing unsourced reports, raised concerns about "foreign fighters" joining the movement to stir up chaos. Others say large sums of money are pouring into Thailand to fund unrest.

(Additional reporting by Chalathip Thirasoonthrukul; Editing by Alan Raybould and Ron Popeski)

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