Thursday March 11, 2010

ANALYSIS - Brazil's Lula raises concern with Iran embrace

By Stuart Grudgings

RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, whose charm and everyman style have made him a hit on the world stage, is risking trouble at home and abroad with a puzzling embrace of Iran just as world opinion hardens over its nuclear program.

Lula, a former union leader who was jailed by Brazil's military rulers in the 1970s, has refused to criticize Iran's human rights record and welcomed Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Brazil with hugs and smiles late last year.

In May, he plans to visit Tehran to boost trade ties even as support builds in the United Nations for a fresh round of sanctions. U.S. patience with Lula was stretched further last week when he spurned visiting U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's attempt to persuade Brazil to vote for new sanctions, warning against pushing Iran "into a corner."

The against-the-grain approach on Iran has come as a surprise to many who have grown to see Lula as the likeable face of Brazil's economic and diplomatic rise in recent years.

The Miami Herald in an editorial this week called Lula's Iran policy "dangerously obtuse and unworthy of a country that aspires to be considered an equal among the world's leaders."

Neither is Brazil's stance viewed kindly by Israel -- where Lula will visit next week to push Middle East peace -- which sees Iran's nuclear plans as a mortal threat.

It is also opening up internal divisions ahead of elections to choose a successor to Lula in October as the opposition criticizes his government's warm ties with Iran, which Western powers fear is set on developing nuclear weapons despite Tehran's denials.

"There's definite political risk here for the Brazilians," said Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Council of the Americas in Washington and a former state department official.

"Obviously, they've chosen to do something else, but at what cost? I think this will increasingly become an issue in the presidential election."

DIFFERENT WORLD VIEW

Analysts say that Lula's government, which holds a rotating seat on the U.N. Security Council, views itself as an important brake on any repeat of the rush to a consensus based on unclear evidence that led to war against Iraq in 2003.

Its role as a developing world leader in trade and other fora and experience as a nuclear rebel also makes it wary of big-power pressure and gives it empathy for Iran, said Matias Spektor, a Brazilian scholar and visiting fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.

Brazil's military dictatorship forged ahead with its own nuclear power capability in the 1970s despite U.S. objections. Iran has pointed to Brazil to show that it could also have nuclear power without developing weapons, a ban that is written into Brazil's constitution.

"Brazil is talking from the perspective of its own history. It was at the receiving end of an awful lot of pressure on nuclear (issues)," Spektor said.

"One Brazilian official told me that when we look at Iran, we don't see Iran, we see Brazil."

Security Council diplomats expect Brazil to abstain or vote against fresh sanctions, along with fellow non-permanent members Lebanon and Turkey and permanent member China.

"We will not simply bow down to the evolving consensus if we do not agree," Foreign Minister Celso Amorim said at a news conference with Clinton last week.

Lula, who says he opposes any move by Iran to get nuclear weapons, also appears to hope that Brazil's softer approach could help to broker a deal solving the nuclear impasse.

It could be a crowning moment for the popular Lula in his last year as president, but many are sceptical he could succeed where others far more experienced in Middle East diplomacy have failed.

"The Europeans have tried this double-track approach with Iran for years and that's got exactly nowhere," Farnsworth said.

While Brazil's engagement with Iran is unlikely to seriously strain relations with the United States, it could raise questions over Brazil's readiness to be considered for the permanent U.N. Security Council seat that it covets.

Some analysts view Brazil's decision to defend Iran and present itself as an alternative Middle East peace broker as a move toward a more activist, high-profile world role.

But its policy could be seen as based on weakness as much as strength. Brazil has largely been quiet in Security Council debates on Iran and has not presented an alternative solution to the long-brewing crisis.

"It doesn't seem to me we are seeing a positive, activist agenda. On the contrary, I think Brazil is acting defensively," Spektor said. "Even if Brazil is an emerging power, it is a relatively small, weak country still. It's not a major player in security issues; it's still learning how to do it."

(Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

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