Sunday February 19, 2012

The rise of a new Myanmar

By BUNN NAGARA
sunday@thestar.com.my

Myanmar's neighbours have reason to be concerned when Aung San Suu Kyi said she wanted it to surpass them in 10 years.

WHEN Asean Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan lands at Myanmar's new Naypyidaw Airport tomorrow for a full working week, he would have taken a bold new step for both Asean and Myanmar.

For two whole decades, Asean had tried in vain to coax and cajole the country's brutal military dictatorship into a semblance of civility. The ruling junta refused to budge, despite Western pressure running the gamut from economic sanctions to casting it as an international pariah.

In the 1990s, Malaysia led Asean in playing “good cop” to the West's sanctions-wielding “bad cop” by extending membership to Yangon. But the generals still rejected reform, even spurning foreign aid relief for typhoon victims, shooting protesting monks and detaining masses of dissidents including NLD (National League for Democracy) leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

On the trail of change: Cynics underrate the impact of April’s by-election since even with all 48 seats the NLD would have to work within a 440-seat Parliament, but Suu Kyi has chosen to soldier soon. — Reuters

Yangon was obliged to forgo its turn to chair Asean in 2006, while promising to fulfil its “road map” for reform which it never did. Time wore on, Myanmar's turn to chair Asean would re-emerge for 2014, and junta head Senior General Than Shwe was said to be ailing.

There was a general election in 2010, after the 1990 outing that the junta lost massively and ignored. Sceptics and critics were cynical as ever, expecting it to be another sham, denouncing it before it even began.

Suu Kyi refused to lend the election any credibility and effectively boycotted it by not re-registering the NLD. That automatically disqualified the party, but its National Democratic Force splinter group chose to run.

As expected, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) party won. Charges of fraud followed, both within and outside Myanmar.

But the generals from Than Shwe down were no longer in the Cabinet. Former general and now civilian U Thein Sein became Prime Minister, then President, as Myanmar switched to a presidential system.

How independent is Thein Sein of the military? Has the military really receded in politics? Can the new government be trusted to deliver on promised reforms?

Now an atypical by-election is scheduled for April 1, being something of a dry run for the next general election. A total of 48 parliamentary seats are at stake, following the move of dozens of MPs to Cabinet posts.

The NLD has been re-registered, it is contesting all 48 seats, and Suu Kyi herself has decided to run for a seat.

Thein Sein surprised many by progressively distancing his government from Than Shwe's. He freed hundreds of political prisoners, signed peace deals with insurgent groups, encouraged wider political participation and appealed to Myanmar exiles abroad to return home to rebuild the country.

He also lifted a ban on demonstrations, eased media restrictions, allowed media coverage of government talks with rebel leaders, and sent senior officials to listen to the people's complaints. An unpopular multi-billion dollar dam backed by chief junta ally China was scrapped last year, as was an unpopular coal-fired power plant last month.

With such signs of progress, some Western countries have begun to lift sanctions. The US and the EU are closely monitoring developments before lifting all sanctions altogether.

East Asian investors are ahead of the game here, with North-East Asian (Chinese, Japanese and Korean) entrepreneurs being better placed than South-East Asian ones. The differences span capital capacity and a political culture averse to sanctions sentiments.

How did reform stop being a dirty word for the generals?

The Myanmar of Sr Gen Than Shwe, now fast fading into memory, was also the Myanmar of a stubbornly idealistic Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Both had refused to yield to any form of compromise, so the resulting deadlock meant stagnation along the prescribed road map.

After a much-maligned 2010 general election, all eyes were trained on Thein Sein. He gave a little, Suu Kyi and the NLD gave their little, and he gave a little more.

This new reciprocity spelt progress when the old mutuality meant only an impasse. It had taken two sides to tangle before, and now it is taking two sides to tango.

Suu Kyi has not only agreed to run for a seat but also wants to join the Cabinet. Cynics underrate the impact of April's by-election since even with all 48 seats the NLD would have to work within a 440-seat Parliament, but Suu Kyi has chosen to soldier soon.

She was at first uncertain whether Thein Sein was genuine about reform. Now she no longer doubts his intent, only the certainty of the reform process.

“In the first three months President Thein Sein himself was unsure how far the generals would let him go in his reform programme,” an informed source told me.

“So he moved slowly at first. But now he's more confident and moving faster.”

Myanmar's recent past gives cause for caution. When former prime minister and intelligence chief Khin Nyunt fell out with Sr Gen. Than Shwe, he was sacked and jailed.

Of the factions in government, Thein Sein is seen as heading the reformist faction. Suu Kyi's confidence in him should help boost the momentum behind the government.

“She has already said she wants to be Foreign Minister,” a source said. The smart view is that she would soon enough be that, as a step to higher office.

Some may decry how that post would only make her whitewash any wrong by the government, turning her into its chief PR officer. The fact that she has agreed to do so is a measure of her current conciliatory tone.

Writers and journalists being on the frontline are usually best placed to sense the latest developments. A recent international workshop in Yangon focusing on Myanmar media and democratisation was therefore informative, particularly for the foreign delegates.

For the event to be held at all, openly, is a measure of progress. A wide range of issues were discussed, from what constitutes being a journalist to the rights and protection of journalists.

Myanmar media practitioners were suspicious about regulating or registering journalists, and were averse to censorship. A debate ensued on the need for a printing and publications law that the government was considering.

The presence of different factions meant that some radicals might have toned themselves down to avoid detection. At some point it became a matter of trusting one another.

“Chatham House rules,” someone remarked, to avoid being quoted in the media without clearance. Overall, some signs indicative of a new Myanmar were clear.

Many of the local delegates were young, energetic and enthusiastic. These included returned exiles, which meant they had education, qualifications and savings to help rebuild the country.

Budding local entrepreneurs and some established ones were seeking new media investment opportunities.

Myanmar media bosses were aware that their staff lacked international exposure. They are hungry for it, busily hunting down any prospect to connect.

A Myanmar delegate beside me was among several passionately expounding on needed reforms. When he turned out to be highly connected in government, Thein Sein's reform agenda took on new meaning again.

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Sunday February 19, 2012

The rise of a new Myanmar

By BUNN NAGARA sunday@thestar.com.my

By BUNN NAGARA
sunday@thestar.com.my