A Chinese analyst of the South China Sea has warned of more trouble at sea after revelations about the involvement of a US special task force at a disputed shoal.
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin last week confirmed the deployment of Task Force Ayungin, a special operations unit named after the Philippine word for Second Thomas Shoal – a flashpoint in Manila’s maritime conflict with Beijing.
It was the latest example of the US “fanning the flames” and fuelling the fight in the disputed waters, said Ding Duo, deputy director of the Centre for Oceans Law and Policy at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan.
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In an article published on Tuesday, Ding, who recently concluded a visit to the Philippines, where he said he engaged with local sources familiar with the matter, said such support by the United States had emboldened the Philippines to engage in further provocations in its ongoing dispute with China.
It also showed that cooperation between Washington and Manila under their alliance framework was becoming “more structured, task-oriented, project-based”, he added.
Ding said the task force – which comprises around 15 US troops stationed on Palawan Island – was formally established in July, around the same time an agreement was reached between Beijing and Manila over resupplying a decades-old warship deliberately grounded in the Second Thomas Shoal, known in China as Renai Jiao.
In June, during what Manila called the worst confrontation in recent years, China Coast Guard members boarded two Philippine Navy boats to stop personnel transferring food and other supplies, including firearms, to troops stationed on the shoal. Several Philippine Navy personnel were injured in the subsequent clashes, including one who lost a thumb.
A month later, the two countries reached an interim agreement to avoid violent confrontations during Manila’s resupply missions to the Sierra Madre warship, which Beijing says was illegally beached at Second Thomas Shoal by the Philippines.
Before the interim deal was reached, the shoal had become the scene of increasingly violent disputes, including vessels being rammed and the Chinese coastguard using powerful water cannons. No violent encounters have been reported since the provisional agreement came into effect.
Manila has overlapping claims with Beijing in the vast South China Sea, with clashes between the two neighbouring countries largely occurring near the shoal.
Kanishka Gangopadhyay, a spokesman for the US embassy in Manila, said the task force enhanced the alliance’s “coordination and interoperability” by allowing US forces to support Philippine military activities in the South China Sea.
Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst at Rand Corporation, said the deployment of US soldiers to the shoal was a tacit acknowledgement of the Philippine position in the disputed waterway.
“Has anyone realised that by disclosing the existence of ‘US Task Force Ayungin’, Biden admin implicitly recognised Philippines’ sovereignty over a disputed [South China Sea] feature?” he said in a social media post, noting that Washington had never previously taken the position on a specific feature in the contested maritime zone.
“This is a clear signal to China,” Grossman said.
Ding said the special operations unit regularly conducted training exercises with the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ Western Command, including offering personnel training to the Philippine side and improving the coordination of crewed and uncrewed military equipment.
The drill mainly focused on supporting the Philippines’ resupply missions and personnel rotations to the Sierra Madre, aiming to provide maritime operational guidance to the Philippines and enhance US-Philippine intelligence interoperability, Ding said.
According to Ding, the task force trained the Philippines coastguard on small vessel defensive tactics last month. The task force has access to at least four Mantas T-12s naval surveillance drones and at least one T-38 drone boat.
“By establishing the task force, the US can gain more direct insight into the operational habits and activity modes of Chinese coastguard vessels, thereby providing information support for its situational analysis and battlefield preparation,” he said.
According to Ding, the US might also “incite the Philippines to cause trouble” through other means. For instance, the operations unit could “escort” the Philippine resupply ships before they enter areas controlled by China, serving as an opportunity to practise interoperability of information systems and share command chains, he said.
More from South China Morning Post:
- ‘A clear signal to China’: US task force backs Philippine operations in South China Sea
- Tensions seen rising in South China Sea as Wang Yi calls for ‘friendly’ talks
- South China Sea: US troop aid may reassure Philippines but will prod China, analysts say
- China draws red line at Scarborough Shoal after Manila’s new maritime laws
- China urges Philippines to help manage shoal dispute after resupply trip to Sierra Madre warship
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