Catalan separatist leader Carles Puigdemont delivers a statement after a deal was signed with Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) for Spanish government support, which is expected to include an amnesty law for Catalan separatist activists, in Brussels, Belgium November 9, 2023. REUTERS/Yves Herman/File Photo
BARCELONA (Reuters) - Exiled Catalan separatist Carles Puigdemont will announce on Thursday whether he will run for president of the restive region in May, risking his arrest on entering Spain and raising implications for the national government.
Puigdemont led northeastern Catalonia during a 2017 vote to break away from Spain, and a subsequent declaration of independence that courts declared illegal, prompting Madrid to impose direct rule in Spain's biggest political crisis in decades.
Puigdemont, 61, fled Spain to avoid arrest over charges of disobedience and embezzlement over the crisis and now lives in Belgium where he serves as an MEP.
But last week, the Catalan government, run by moderate Esquerra Republicana (ERC) leader Pere Aragones, called a surprise election after its parliament failed to approve a budget.
Puigdemont's hardline Junts party says the mop-haired former journalist could run as their candidate thanks to an amnesty bill put forward by Spain's ruling socialists and expected to come into force by May or June.
Puigdemont has also backed the idea, posting on X on Monday: "We went into exile for the same reasons for which we will have to return; the future of our nation and not our personal destiny has inspired all the decisions taken."
Puigdemont faces a "very low" risk of arrest in Spain and is willing to return nonetheless, his lawyer, Gonzalo Boye, told Reuters. "We believe the Supreme Court will respect the content of the amnesty law," he said, meaning the charges Puigdemont faces would be lifted.
But timing will be key. While Puigdemont can campaign from Belgium, he must return to Spain for the investiture as early as June should his party's bid to run the regional government succeed.
The application of the amnesty law - sought by the ERC and Junts in return for backing a minority national government led by socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez - will depend on individual judges and some scholars have warned Puigdemont could still not be cleared in time.
JUNTS UNANIMOUS
There is unanimity in Junts that Puigdemont would be their best candidate for Catalonia's May 12 election but the decision is up to him, said a party official who declined to be identified.
He could either choose to run the gauntlet of legal charges, or stay in Brussels to run in June for a fresh term as an MEP.
Boye said he expected Puigdemont's arrest warrant for the 2017 events to be lifted quickly once the bill is made law.
There remains the risk that a judge could seek pre-trial detention for Puigdemont over a separate charge of terrorism for allegedly leading an activist group that staged a 2019 raid on Barcelona's airport. Boye played down the prospect.
The amnesty law has prompted widespread protests in Spain and Puigdemont's return would be a hard pill to swallow for those who blame him for threatening Spain's unity.
Should he become Catalan president, it would bring fresh headaches for Sanchez since the independence drive would be reinvigorated and Puigdemont would seek a higher price for his support in Madrid.
Sanchez's socialists, who have run the national government for almost six years, insist they are unconcerned by the prospect of Puigdemont running.
The socialists lead in two newspaper polls published on Monday ahead of the Catalan election amid a strategy of reconciliation.
Political analyst Joan Esculies said some voters might punish Puigdemont for failing to meet previous separatist promises.
"Catalonia is not the same as it was in 2017," he said. "Some separatists are bored of Puigdemont, he does not generate the enthusiasm he once did."
(Reporting by Joan Faus, Editing by Aislinn Laing and Nick Macfie)
