Marcos Jr will have a long economic wish list for China, in balance with its defence links with the US. - AFP
BEIJING, Dec 17 (The Straits Times/ANN): Days before embarking on his landmark trip to China in 1975, then Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Sr convened a Cabinet meeting, during which he lifted briefing papers more than an inch thick to see how heavy they were.
After setting them aside, as a retired diplomat recalled, the President asked out of the blue: Is Chairman Mao Zedong left- or right-handed?
None of those present at the closed-door meeting could give a definitive answer to the out-of-left-field question, which was inconsequential per se and more of a test than anything else of his men’s knowledge of the world’s most populous nation, which was then diplomatically isolated and an economic backwater.
Marcos Sr’s only son and namesake, incumbent President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr, is not expected to spring any surprises to test his people ahead of his state visit to the world’s second-biggest economy in January 2023.
The onus will be on Mr Marcos Jr to win the trust of his Chinese counterpart, Mr Xi Jinping.
The much-anticipated trip will be a test of the Filipino leader’s diplomatic acumen, whether he can convince China that the Philippines is not pivoting back to the United States.
Manila insists it is merely avoiding aligning with either the US or China, which have locked horns in recent years.
“We will listen to his words and watch his deeds (to determine) if the Philippines truly has an independent foreign policy as it professes,” a Communist Party insider told The Straits Times, requesting anonymity.
Many in China, especially hawks, have been alarmed by the unprecedented deployment of a US Patriot surface-to-air missile defence system to the Philippines in March 2022.
Also concerning is an outstanding US request to increase its access to Philippine military bases from five to 10, including in areas near Taiwan, under the 2014 Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement, which is up for renewal in April 2023.
If the Philippines and the US were to jointly patrol the disputed South China Sea, it would without doubt be perceived by China as a provocation.
“Philippine-US military cooperation should not threaten us or stability in the region,” said Professor Dai Fan, director of the Centre for Philippine Studies at Jinan University in Guangzhou.
Beijing and Washington have been playing tug of war to win over the Philippines.
US Vice-President Kamala Harris dangled economic carrots and security assurances when she visited in November.
Chinese Vice-President Wang Qishan attended Mr Marcos’ inauguration in late June, followed by Foreign Minister Wang Yi days later.
For all it is worth, the two men wore barongs, the traditional Philippine attire for men, in a symbolic show of solidarity, but their meetings lacked substance.
The 1975 historic trip had been a win-win situation for both sides. In a victory for the People’s Republic of China, Manila switched diplomatic relations from Taipei to Beijing under a “one China” policy, with Mao declaring: “We are one family now.” To Manila’s relief, China pulled the plug on arming and funding the Communist Party of the Philippines and its armed wing, the New People’s Army.
Marcos will have a different, if not more difficult to achieve, set of objectives from his father. His wish list will be long, including possibly resuming talks on a shelved oil and gas joint exploration project.
He will also be eyeing a boost in trade, investment and tourism, as well as greater Chinese participation in infrastructure projects in the South-East Asian nation of 110 million.
He will be walking a diplomatic tightrope if and when – to placate the armed forces, nationalists at home and the media – he raises The Hague’s 2016 ruling over the South China Sea, parts of which are claimed by Manila as the West Philippine Sea. The issue is sensitive for Beijing and impossible to resolve overnight.
Beijing will not openly ask Manila to choose sides, but it might be challenging for the Philippines to have the best of both worlds – relying on the US for security and on China for economic development.
“It’s difficult to ‘have both fish and bear’s paw’,” said country risk analyst Rock Tong, invoking a Chinese idiom that means that in order to get something, one must sacrifice something else.
The hardest part of Marcos’ tasks is what to give China in exchange for what the Philippines needs without alienating the US, which from Beijing’s prism has been seeking to contain it.
Marcos has made purportedly contradictory statements since assuming office in June, keeping China guessing about his and the Philippines’ real intentions.
He has said he will “not allow a single millimetre of our maritime coastal rights to be trampled upon”, but that war with China is the last thing the Philippines needs right now.
Marcos pledged that China-Philippine ties will expand and “shift to a high gear” during his six-year watch not only in diplomacy and trade but also in culture, education, knowledge and health. But during a visit to New York in September, he said: “I cannot see the Philippines in the future without having the US as a partner, ” – music to the ears of his country’s former colonial masters.
China will be in it for the long haul. “We will not push the Philippines into the arms of the US, but we also do not expect it to be smooth sailing ahead,” the Communist Party insider said.
Marcos will surely play his trump card: his mother, former first lady Imelda Marcos, who is adored by many in China, but at 93 will not be able to travel with him.
Millions of Chinese still fondly remember the iconic moment when Mao took and kissed her hand in a gentlemanly gesture during her 1974 trip to China with her son, then 17. - The Straits Times/ANN
