Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr (left) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo, Japan, on Feb 9, 2023. - Reuters
MANILA (The Straits Times/Asia News Network): China’s military aggression is pushing the Philippines to usher in a new era of stronger defence cooperation with allies Japan and the United States, which could see the forging of a trilateral security deal designed to help counter Beijing’s rising influence in the Indo-Pacific.
During his five-day trip to Tokyo, which ended on Sunday (Feb 12), Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said he will assess Japan’s proposed security troika with Washington.
He believes such a deal is key in ensuring stability amid “confusing” and “dangerous” situations in the region and beyond – from the South China Sea dispute and tension over the Taiwan-China conflict to the war between Russia and Ukraine.
“That pact is, I think, a central element to providing some sort of stability in the face of all these problems that we are seeing around us,” Marcos told Kyodo News last Friday.
The timing of Marcos’ other recent agreements with Japan and the US is also quite telling of the message that the Philippines is now sending to China, said Dindo Manhit, president of Manila-based think-tank Stratbase ADR Institute.
Marcos started 2023 with a brief state visit to China, only to give the US wider access to Filipino military bases when US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin visited Manila a month later.
This means American troops will soon be able to construct facilities, bring in equipment and train with Filipino soldiers in nine mutually agreed upon bases in the Philippines.
Then Marcos travelled to Tokyo to sign a humanitarian and disaster relief deal that could be a precursor to holding joint military exercises, like what the Philippines is already doing with the US under another agreement.
It is certainly a contrast to the China-friendly policy followed by Marcos’ predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, who had pivoted away from the US and did not do much to foster ties with Japan during his term.
Duterte instead prioritised securing loans and grants from China, but much of these did not materalise during his term.
“It just shows that there’s really a problem with this relationship with China... So it’s good that Marcos is learning from history also,” said Manhit.
“If you want to engage with your neighbour, respect their strong powers and economic power. But if there’s no value to the Filipino people, let’s forge more friendship with other countries.”
He said the Philippines stands to benefit from stronger relations with Japan and the US, countries that have delivered on their assistance pledges through regular training exercises and donations of equipment to help modernise Manila’s military and coast guard forces.
Gregory Poling, director of the South-East Asia Programme at the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said Marcos’ foreign policy path aligns with the ongoing trend in the region, where concerns about Chinese aggression have prompted nations to boost their military spending and broaden multilateral security cooperation.
Although inferior militarily, the Philippines has a geographical location that makes it a strategic ally for both Japan and the US, should tensions escalate in the Taiwan-China conflict or in the South China Sea.
The Philippines’ northernmost island of Mavulis and Japan’s westernmost Okinawan island of Yonaguni are both approximately 110km from Taiwan.
Both Manila and Tokyo are also embroiled in maritime disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea and East China Sea, respectively. Both have the US’ support in their claims over the disputed waters.
“So if you’re Japan, seeing the Philippines more effectively stand up for itself in the South China Sea helps you in an indirect way. And they all recognise that the US might remain the indispensable partner of all of them,” said Mr Poling.
The Philippines, however, must tread carefully as it navigates stronger relations with Japan and the US, two countries that once ruled it. Some leftist Filipino lawmakers have already raised concerns about opening more military bases to foreign troops.
The challenge for Marcos is to strike a balance between securing key alliances with nations, ensuring stability in the Indo-Pacific region and defending Philippine sovereignty.
Manhit said the Philippine leader is already taking baby steps on this by bolstering ties with countries that share its interests.
Poling also noted the crucial symbolism when in November 2022, while standing on board the BRP Teresa Magbanua, US Vice-President Kamala Harris reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to defend the Philippines.
The vessel, a donation from Japan and one of Manila’s biggest patrol vessels in the South China Sea, was named after a Filipino schoolteacher-turned-military leader who led resistance movements against the Philippines’ three colonisers: Spain, the US and Japan.
“I’m not saying it was intentional, but it’s kind of a microcosm, right? That American and Japanese engagement is welcome, but it must happen on Philippine terms,” said Poling.
“The Philippines might not bring much to the table, but it has to be treated as an equal party.”
