President Joko Widodo (right) speaks with Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto (left) and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo during a rice harvest in Lajer village in Central Java, on March 9, 2023. - Presidential Secretariat's Press Bureau
JAKARTA (The Jakarta Post/Asia News Network): The ruling coalition is reportedly seeking to pair election frontrunners Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto for the 2024 presidential race, a political arrangement that, if it materialises, could concentrate support and decrease the likelihood of a runoff election.
Speculation about a potential pairing between the Central Java governor and the Gerindra Party leader, who have topped election surveys by credible pollsters, was rife following a meeting between the two potential contenders with President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo in Kebumen, Central Java, last week.
President Jokowi, who has been actively seeking to influence the hunt for his successor, is believed to have supported the pairing of the two popular figures, with the meeting in Kebumen seen as his way of testing the waters.
However, the final decision over a ticket of Ganjar and Prabowo rests in hands of Prabowo, as Gerindra’s leader, and Megawati Soekarnoputri, leader of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), of which Ganjar is a member.
Gerindra and the PDI-P are at loggerheads over who should run for president, with each party insisting that the presidential nominee should come from their ranks.
Gerindra deputy chief patron Hashim Djojohadikusumo, who is also the younger brother of Prabowo, said on Sunday (March 12) that given Prabowo's seniority, age and experience, it was only natural for him to be at the top of the ticket.
"We're open to Pak Ganjar joining the ticket with one condition that Pak Prabowo is the presidential candidate. It's impossible for Pak Prabowo not to be the presidential candidate," Hashim told reporters after an event for Prabowo's volunteers in Central Jakarta. “[That] is non-negotiable.”
Hashim added that Prabowo’s running mate would also need to be approved National Awakening Party (PKB) chief Muhaimin Iskandar, whose party entered into a formal coalition with Gerindra in August of last year in the hopes of landing its party head a vice presidential candidacy.
When asked about Hashim’s conditions, PDI-P secretary general Hasto Kristiyanto told reporters that having a PDI-P member as the presidential nominee was a requirement for a PDI-P-led coalition.
“Any offers for a potential partnership in the presidential election should certainly [have the presidential candidate] from the PDI-P,” he said.
A Prabowo-Ganjar pairing would likely turn the election into a two-horse race, pitting them against former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan. Anies is a presidential nominee with support from the opposition parties, which have joined forces with the NasDem Party, a member of the ruling coalition, to form the Coalition for Change.
In many election surveys, Anies trails both Ganjar and Prabowo as the third most popular candidate.
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) politics and social change head Arya Fernandes said a Prabowo-Ganjar pairing would greatly increase their chances of winning the election, particularly since the two had complementary voter bases.
“While it is still too early to tell whether the pairing would sweep the elections, it is clear that [both Prabowo and Ganjar] would see a boost in their respective electability [ratings], since both appeal to different demographic and geographic segments of the public,” Arya said on Monday.
Ganjar is highly popular in Central Java, a PDI-P stronghold where he is now serving his second term as governor, while Prabowo retains a strong voter base in West Java.
Support for Prabowo in West Java, a bastion of Islamic conservatism, is 34.5 per cent, followed by Ridwan Kamil with 17.4 per cent, Anies with 16 per cent and Ganjar with 13.8 per cent, according to a recent Saiful Mujani Research Consulting (SMRC) survey.
A win for Jokowi President Jokowi stands to benefit from a Prabowo-Ganjar pairing, as their partnership would likely force the 2024 elections into a contest between two fervent supporters of the President and those rooting for Anies, according to Arya.
“If the 2024 presidential election really turns into a government-backing camp and an opposition camp, the President will likely benefit since both [Ganjar and Prabowo] are close to him,” he said.
Hailing from the same party and sharing an electoral stronghold in Central Java, Ganjar has long been touted as Jokowi’s preferred successor, with Jokowi himself telling thousands of his supporters in November of last year to vote for a “white-haired” politician, an apparent reference to Ganjar’s distinctive locks.
However, with Gerindra and the PDI-P at odds, Arya said, a Prabowo-Ganjar pairing was unlikely for now, as their parties were reluctant to lower their demands.
“At this point, I think Prabowo’s camp has the bargaining power, since his ticket is all but ensured due to [Gerindra’s] coalition with the PKB, and [2024] is likely Prabowo’s last crack at a presidential race,” Arya added.
