As Tsai Ing-wen entered the final year of her second term in office in May, tensions in the Taiwan Strait have grown to become a global concern. - Reuters
TAIPEI, June 12 (The Straits Times/ANN): When Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen was first elected in 2016, she promised that her government would “bring Taiwan closer to the world, and the world closer to Taiwan”.
Seven years later, she has achieved just that, say political watchers.
“Tsai will be remembered primarily for bringing unprecedented international support and spotlight to Taiwan,” said Australian National University political scientist Sung Wen-ti.
As Ms Tsai entered the final year of her second term in office in May, tensions in the Taiwan Strait have gone from being a regional issue to one of global concern, with the West in particular drawing attention to the issue even as Beijing describes it as an internal Chinese matter.
China views Taiwan as its territory – claims that Taipei rejects – and has not ruled out the use of force to reunify with it.
The growing focus on Taiwan is a mark of Ms Tsai’s foreign policy success, experts said, boosted by the intensification of the United States-China rivalry, concerns over escalating tensions between Taipei and Beijing, and the island’s vital role in the global supply chain as a major technology exporter.
But her overall performance as president is marred by a mixed domestic policy record, which will have implications for the election prospects of her Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) candidate, Vice-President William Lai, at the January 2024 presidential race. Ms Tsai cannot run again as she would have served two terms, a constitutional limit.
“Internationally, Tsai will be known as the president who stood up to China and tried her best to protect Taiwan’s sovereignty,” said Dr Yeh Yao-yuan, a Taiwan studies expert at the University of St Thomas in Houston, Texas.
“But the Taiwanese are divided – a significant proportion of people will say that she was too strong in countering China, and that she and the DPP didn’t do a good job domestically,” he added. “These people will say it’s time for another party to run the government.”
No ruling party has retained power for more than two terms since direct election for the presidency was introduced in Taiwan in 1996.
Since Ms Tsai took office, cross-strait relations have deteriorated, with Beijing cutting off official communication channels with Taipei in 2016, citing her failure to endorse the concept of a single Chinese nation. China has also ramped up military pressure on Taiwan, which critics say is pushing the island closer to war.
Still, her approval ratings are “great”, especially considering how far she is into her presidency, analysts said.
According to a May survey by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, her approval rating stands at 45.2 per cent, while her disapproval rating is 36.8 per cent.
A separate poll by the Asia-Pacific Elite Interchange Association showed that half of the respondents – 50.7 per cent – agreed with Ms Tsai’s policies to date.
“President Tsai has done relatively well compared with her predecessors at comparable points in their presidencies,” said Mr Sung. “Usually by year seven, Taiwanese presidents’ approval ratings drop down to the teens.”
The administrations of Ms Tsai’s two predecessors, Mr Chen Shui-bian and Mr Ma Ying-jeou, were marked by a corruption scandal and massive protests against a cross-strait trade pact, respectively, which damaged their public standing, said University of Washington Assistant Professor James Lin.
“Tsai has managed an administration free of scandals and protests,” he noted.
But her foreign policy remains her biggest triumph, analysts said, even as Taiwan has lost nine diplomatic allies to China under her leadership, leaving the island with only 13.
“Under Tsai, Taiwan has increased engagement with so many countries on new levels despite them not being formal relations,” said Dr Yeh.
This involves making the most of Taiwan’s strengths while riding the waves of geopolitical shifts in sentiment towards China, he said.
Ms Tsai has routinely highlighted Taiwan’s status as a free democracy, which strikes a chord with the US and its allies in Asia and Europe.
These include Eastern European nations such as former Soviet Union republic Lithuania, whose concern for Taiwan comes amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and their own deteriorating relations with China.
Despite Taiwan’s exclusion from international organisations such as the World Health Organisation, Ms Tsai played up its well-managed Covid-19 response during the pandemic and provided generous donations of face masks and pharmaceutical supplies to countries that most needed them.
Ms Tsai has also presented Taiwan as an indispensable player in the global supply chain, which makes the island not only worth defending but also a crucial partner to have. Taiwan produces 65 per cent of the world’s semiconductors – the critical components found in most electronic devices including cars and smartphones – and almost 90 per cent of the most advanced chips.
“More and more countries are starting to realise that Taiwan has a vital role in the global economy – highlighted during the chip shortage – and that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait would be devastating,” said Assistant Professor James Lee from Taipei’s Academia Sinica.
Then, there is Ms Tsai’s New Southbound Policy (NSP), which was launched in 2016 to lessen Taiwan’s reliance on China by increasing trade relationships with 18 nations in the region, including India and those in South-east Asia.
In 2010, 83.8 per cent of Taiwan’s outward foreign direct investment went to China, and only 6.3 per cent went to NSP countries. In 2022, however, each took a share of about one-third.
“China will criticise Tsai for losing allies, but Taiwanese can see that she actually raised Taiwan’s profile internationally,” said Dr Yeh.
“However, she faces challenges defending some of her domestic policies,” he added.
During her first term, Ms Tsai became hugely unpopular after she made substantial cuts to civil servants’ pensions, though it was deemed necessary to prevent Taiwan’s pension system from going bankrupt.
In 2019, she pushed through the legalisation of same-sex marriage – a first for Asia – which was welcomed by the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer (LGBTQ) community but saw a surge of conservative opposition.
She has also been attacked for her failure to reduce inequality and provide affordable housing for the young.
While she has raised the island’s minimum wage every year since she took office, economists have described the increases as incremental and unhelpful in boosting the island’s stagnant wages at a time when living expenses and housing prices have soared.
“The DPP will have trouble addressing their social policies in their election campaign, especially since William Lai is unpopular with young people,” Dr Yeh said.
According to a May poll by broadcaster TVBS, Mr Lai is the presidential candidate with the lowest support among those aged 20 to 29, behind Mr Hou Yu-ih of the main opposition Kuomintang and Dr Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party.
“Lai has said that he will continue Tsai’s foreign policy, so people know what to expect there, but the DPP will have to think about what kind of domestic policies they can promote to attract more voters,” Dr Yeh added.
“Going by Tsai’s approval ratings, people think she’s doing decently, but how much of that translates into votes for Lai is up in the air.” - The Straits Times/ANN
