SINGAPORE, June 13 (Agencies): The long standing neutrality espoused by the Association of South-East Asian Nations (Asean) is increasingly impeding rather than helping the 10-member bloc from asserting its interests in the face of new geopolitical challenges.
In fact, Asean is highly exposed to this intense geopolitical competition where economic giants such as China and the United States are eager to to assert their influence on this region.
China is widely seen as pursuing a policy of dividing Asean states - pressing the collective to take a neutral stand in disputes between it and the West while also drawing some member states into its orbit through economic means and other pressure tactics.
Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos are already viewed as satellites while the Philippines and Thailand are US treaty allies, and Singapore hosts a US naval base.
Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei have maritime territorial disputes with China but they have been unable to act in unison or through the Asean framework to present a united front, allowing China to slowly chip away at these countries maritime zones of control in line with its infamous “nine-dash line” policy.
China is Asean’s largest bilateral partner in goods trade - its total trade value is 54 percent higher than Asean’s trade with the US. In particular, high imports from China suggest close supply-chain linkage.
However, the US is a greater source of foreign direct investment (FDI), providing US$35bn (26 percent of total FDI inflows) to Asean in 2020, compared with US$11.6bn from China and Hong Kong (8.5 percent of total inflows).
Commenting on the recently concluded 42nd Asean Summit and Related Meetings in Indonesia where members failed to jointly tackle the violence in Myanmar as well as the much more critical South China Sea tensions, Foreign Affairs and Strategy Analyst with the University of Malaya Collins Chong Yew Keat opined that the bloc’s frequent claim of neutrality rings hollow and undermines its bargaining power, as member states slowing ally themselves with external powers.
“The Myanmar crisis and the growing tensions in the South China Sea are just two of the main indicators highlighting the failed approach of Asean in being limited by its inability to exert credible and solid measures.
"Jakarta realises this, and so do other member states. However, decades of stable status quo benefit derivation have created a common reluctance for significant shifts that would alter regime and regional security,” he said.
“The region remains trapped by its own ignorance and utopian belief of its decades old ASEAN Way approach and de-escalation of conflict through idealistic dependence on non-confrontational approach and conflict prevention mechanisms through its different tiers and channels of dialogues,” he added.
In addition to trade pressure, Asean states are also faced with aggressive lobbying by China’s telecommunications giant Huawei for market share in the region, with controversy breaking out especially in Malaysia over the move.
This is in addition to the various Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure projects in Asean which have drawn fire over claims of corruption, huge debt, destruction of the environment and displacement of local indigenous people.
Chong explained that fear and wariness on China’s ambitions in the region: its desire to deny the West a foothold in the region, the agenda in the South China Sea and the potential fallout of a full blown Taiwan conflict, all create a perfect firestorm for both a declining impact of dialogue building efforts and the efficacy of confidence building measures.
“Asean has repeatedly yearned for stability and status quo, in fear of a repeat of the Cold War divide and has created a flurry of mechanisms from the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) to the Asean Regional Forum (ARF) and Treaty of South-East Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ), among others, but has been futile and toothless in getting the required stability in the SCS with a toothless response to Beijing’s coercive tactics,” he asserted.
Moving forward Chong said Asean needs to change its principles and be bold in calling out law defying behaviours by external parties, especially China, to ensure that it walks the talk of maintaining regional stability.
He added: “For it to be relevant in the future, changes in its orientations and non interference stand are a must. It will have to adopt a more EU-like common policy on defence and re-enact movements of the old SEATO concept with the help of the West with a regional NATO like framework.
"This remains the realistic and needed framework in dealing with both Beijing’s increasing bellicosity and continuous strategy in the region and in ensuring Asean’s strength and relevance,” he said. - Agencies
