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There were high hopes among Taiwan’s main opposition party when Han Kuo-yu entered the island’s presidential race in the summer of 2019.
The populist Kuomintang candidate had months earlier been elected mayor of the southern port city of Kaohsiung – a traditional stronghold of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. It was a landslide win for the former businessman, who was seen as a strong contender for president in 2020.
That all changed when anti-government protests broke out in Hong Kong, triggered by an unpopular extradition bill that would have allowed suspects to be sent to mainland China for trial. There were concerns over the potential for politically motivated persecution and unfair trials on the mainland, and the bill was eventually withdrawn.
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The months of turmoil it unleashed in Hong Kong gave Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s re-election campaign a powerful boost. Tsai, of the independence-leaning DPP, seized the opportunity to trash Han and the Beijing-friendly KMT, and attacked Beijing as an untrustworthy negotiating partner that had reneged on its promise to respect Hong Kong’s freedoms and allow a “high degree of autonomy” for 50 years.
The DPP’s message was clearly seen in election slogans such as “Vote for KMT, Taiwan becomes Hong Kong”.
Beijing has long held up Hong Kong as a model for Taiwan – it sees self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province to be “reunified” under a similar “one country, two systems” framework. For decades mainland Chinese leaders have promised a sceptical Taiwan more autonomy than Hong Kong.
Han eventually lost the presidential election, and his mayorship. The defeat plunged the KMT into crisis as supporters lost hope in its moderate strategy on Beijing and questioned its ambivalence about the island’s future.
Four years on, that saga looms large over the next presidential election in January. Six months out, as the KMT struggles with internal divisions, its candidate Hou Yu-ih, the New Taipei City mayor, is trailing his DPP rival and front runner Vice-President William Lai Ching-te, as well as Taiwan People’s Party maverick Ko Wen-je.
And this time, as Taiwanese voters prepare to decide on who will lead the island and how it will engage with Beijing, Hong Kong is pushing ahead with a plan to pass its own version of a national security law imposed on the city in 2020.
New security law
Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu said last month that Article 23 – security provisions to be added to the city’s mini-constitution, the Basic Law – would “definitely” be enacted this year or next year at the latest.
Beijing’s top official on Hong Kong affairs, Xia Baolong, made clear in January that the city should amend its laws to align them with the “overriding” national security legislation. He said this “dual mechanism” would give Hong Kong the main responsibility for national security but the central authorities would step in to tackle “intractable” problems.
Beijing imposed the national security law on Hong Kong in June 2020 in response to the unrest in the city. The sweeping law bans acts of secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces.
Article 23 requires Hong Kong to enact its own laws to also outlaw theft of state secrets, as well as ban foreign political organisations or bodies from conducting political activities in the city and local political organisations or bodies from establishing ties with foreign political organisations or bodies.
The city first attempted to pass the Article 23 bill in 2003 but it was shelved after half a million people took to the streets in protest over fears it would curtail civil rights and liberties.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s national security police earlier this month offered bounties of HK$1 million each for the arrest of eight political fugitives in Australia, the US and UK who are accused of violating the national security law. Four former members of the disbanded Demosisto political party were also arrested for allegedly conspiring to raise funds in support of “anti-China” activities abroad.
Those moves drew condemnation from Western governments, which Beijing has dismissed as “deep-rooted ideological prejudices and the strategic myth of using Hong Kong to contain China”.
Observers say Beijing’s determination to forge ahead with Article 23 and the crackdown on activists ahead of the Taiwan election suggests it believes the Hong Kong factor is unlikely to sway Taiwanese voters this time around.
Wu Junfei, a researcher at the Hong Kong-China Economic and Cultural Development Association, a Hong Kong think tank, said the arrests and pursuit of Article 23 indicated that Beijing was determined to “do what needs to be done”.
“It’s a new normal now, especially towards the US. Beijing has learned from experience that the US is determined to contain China’s growth. No amount of goodwill will change that,” Wu said. “Since the US wants to bargain from a position of strength, China will have to counter it with strength too.
“There will never be a perfect time to pass Article 23, and it will have repercussions for the city’s business and society for sure,” he said. “But Beijing wants to get it done and move on. By doing that, it removes a major uncertainty ... that’s better for the longer term.”
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According to one researcher, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, Beijing is aware of the potential impact on Hong Kong from enacting Article 23, but sees it as a move to “bring clarity on the dos and don’ts” that will benefit society in the long run.
The researcher, who is based in Beijing, said there were many people – including from the pro-establishment camp – urging the central leadership to reconsider the push to enact Article 23 because of its potential impact on Hong Kong’s economy and society, as well as on US-China relations and Taiwan politics.
But he believed it would not make much difference to Taiwan’s election.
“This time, regardless of the situation in Hong Kong, Taiwan’s DPP has a very clear lead,” the researcher said. “Beijing might as well take this chance to do what it wants to do in Hong Kong, while talking to Washington about their guard rails to rein in Taiwan.”
He also said the bounties offered for Hong Kong activists were Beijing’s answer to Washington’s long-arm jurisdiction tactics and sanctions.
Beijing believed they would have an impact on the fugitives, even if they did not return to Hong Kong, the researcher said.
“Of course, Beijing cannot directly arrest these fugitives abroad but the bounties will deter them from travelling to countries that are friendly to or have extradition agreements with China,” he said.
“Moreover, the bounties will have a strong psychological deterrent effect because these fugitives who have sought refuge in Western countries will be constantly looking over their shoulders.”
Qin Feng, a senior research fellow with the Communication University of China, also said Beijing did not see Hong Kong having a big influence on the outcome of Taiwan’s election this time.
“Hong Kong was perhaps a major factor behind Tsai’s victory in 2020 when she faced the challenge from Han,” Qin said, adding that a KMT comeback was unlikely in the 2024 race, pointing to Hou’s dismal approval rating.
“Beijing is likely to be prepared for the KMT to lose again and sees that Hong Kong is not going to be as important as it was three years ago.”
Qin said Beijing was likely to prioritise security in its competition with the US over trying to win the hearts and minds of Taiwanese voters.
“In the eyes of Beijing, it may be better to shore up its defence on security matters now as Taiwan and the US enter their election cycles,” she added.
Wang Kung-yi, head of the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society, a Taipei think tank, agreed that even if Beijing introduced more controls in Hong Kong it would not have much impact on the election.
“Taiwanese voters are no longer as concerned as they were in 2019 when the protests in Hong Kong were at their peak,” Wang said. “In this election, factors like [support from] the US and Japan are more important to voters.”
‘Less concerned’
Li Da-jung, a professor of international relations and strategic studies at Tamkang University in New Taipei City, said there was a general feeling among Taiwanese that their votes would not have any effect on the situation in Hong Kong.
“The Hong Kong factor is less likely to stir sympathy from voters in Taiwan in the coming presidential election as most of them feel that what has happened in Hong Kong has already happened,” Li said.
“Even the DPP government – which previously vowed to protect Hongkongers by offering for them to live in Taiwan – has apparently slowly taken back its words, as reflected by its meticulous requirements for proof to resettle in Taiwan and by stalling the application process for residence in Taiwan,” he said.
“Taiwanese voters are less concerned about Hong Kong now.”
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But he said Beijing could be expected to use tactics that might have an impact on Taiwan’s election. Li gave the examples of military threats, the spread of disinformation, bans on Taiwanese products, withdrawing privileges and benefits for Taiwanese people, random arrests of Taiwanese, and more efforts to diplomatically isolate the island.
“But the Beijing government has learned to be careful in its use of these tactics because it also needs to avoid them having the opposite effect – they could also push Taiwanese people further away,” he said. “The military pressure and disinformation campaign against Taiwan is likely to be what it is doing now to try to have an impact on the presidential election.”
More from South China Morning Post:
- Who will win Taiwan’s crucial 2024 election?
- Taiwanese presidential hopeful William Lai stresses cross-strait status quo in bid to appease US, Beijing
- Hong Kong national security law: police offer HK$1 million rewards for arrest of 8 people, including 3 ex-lawmakers
- Why Taiwan’s KMT is likely to stay with presidential pick Hou You-ih against all odds
- 4-year-old Taiwan People’s Party poised to shake up 2024 presidential elections, poll suggests
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