In the spotlight: Don (right) talking with Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan during the Asean Post Ministerial Conference with the United States at the Asean Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Jakarta. — AFP
Asean foreign ministers last week held more than 15 meetings here, among themselves as well as with external partners.
But these were seemingly eclipsed by the surprise announcement that Thailand’s outgoing Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai made last Wednesday.
“When he said he’d met Aung San Suu Kyi, jaws dropped,” a diplomat who was in the room during the Asean Foreign Ministers’ Meeting say was overheard saying.
Don had revealed that he had met the ousted civilian leader, who urged engagement with Myanmar’s military junta to resolve the crisis.
The country has been in turmoil since Myanmar’s military launched a coup against its democratically elected government in February 2021.
Asean drew up a five-point peace plan with the military two months later, but there has been little progress in quelling the post-coup violence that has killed thousands.
In their joint communique issued last Thursday, the ministers said “a number” of Asean member states view Thailand’s recent activities in Myanmar as a “positive development”.
But, they quickly added, the peace plan established with Myanmar, known as the Five-Point Consensus (5PC), continues to be the main reference for the bloc to address the political crisis there.
“The communique’s language on Myanmar was decidedly positive in reaffirming Asean’s united position that the 5PC remains its main reference to address the Myanmar crisis. Even so, there remains the perception that the bloc is divided”, noted senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Lawrence Anderson.
Parsing the communique and the behind-the-scenes developments ahead of and during the summit, what clues do we have about Asean’s approach, going forward?
Who saw Thailand’s moves positively?
Don’s secret meeting with Suu Kyi on July 9 came less than a month after he invited his Asean counterparts to a meeting to re-engage with Myanmar’s military on June 19.
Besides Myanmar and host Thailand, only Laos turned up with its top diplomat.
Other Asean nations – Brunei, Cambodia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam – sent more junior representatives. Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia were no-shows.
The bloc currently allows Myanmar to be represented only by a non-political representative at its meetings, until there is progress in implementing the plans.
Why did Thailand forge ahead with its own engagements then?
It stems from how Thailand – which shares a border with Myanmar – is currently dealing with an influx of refugees from Myanmar, said Dedi Dinarto, lead Indonesia analyst at public policy advisory firm Global Counsel.
“Thailand is increasingly concerned about the crisis in Myanmar, which has resulted in Burmese people fleeing to Thailand and living as undocumented migrants,” he said.
Political reasons could also be at play, and Thailand’s caretaker government could be trying to demonstrate its legitimacy until the formation of a new administration there, he added.
Coming into the Asean meetings, the divisions within the bloc were further laid bare.
The delayed communique, coming out past 11pm last Thursday and more than 24 hours after the Asean Foreign Ministers’ Meeting ended, suggested that there was disagreement about the wording of the document.
Rumours swirled as the Asean members had their powwows.
Whispered in the corridors of the Shangri-La Hotel and discussed fervently in the media centre at the Wisma 46 building was the fact that the section on Myanmar was the source of the disagreement.
Some member states could not agree on their submissions for the communique, with the paragraphs on Myanmar still being discussed.
In an early draft of the document seen by AFP, the Myanmar section was left blank.
Laos and Cambodia are said to be the countries that are most supportive of Thailand’s recent actions regarding Myanmar, and experts believe that they see such actions as progress.
“These nations are more likely those who are in Myanmar’s geopolitical neighbourhood and in the case of Thailand, even sympathetic to military rule given its own domestic political calculus,” said Dr Mustafa Izzuddin, a senior international affairs analyst at Solaris Strategies Singapore. Mustafa is also a visiting professor in International Relations at the Islamic University of Indonesia.
Another reason why these countries viewed Thailand’s actions positively is because Myanmar’s exclusion from Asean meetings presents a cautionary tale for them, added others.
“They are probably concerned that the sort of punitive actions being imposed on Myanmar collectively by Asean might be used against them on another occasion someday,” said Anderson.
Asean’s agreement on the 5PC does allow for it to consider other approaches to its implementation, said Joanne Lin from the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute.
“It is in this spirit that Thailand and some Asean countries view the separate engagements as being complementary to Asean’s efforts,” said Lin, who is a co-coordinator of the Asean Studies Centre at the institute.
“The Thai foreign minister’s meeting with the former State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi of Myanmar may also be viewed as a breakthrough, since none of the special envoys of the Asean Chair were able to secure a meeting with her.”
Although Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia have strongly opposed direct engagement with the Myanmar military, perspectives appear to have shifted after the Don-Suu Kyi meeting, said Dedi.
“Now it seems that Asean is inclined to support any efforts made that are in line with the Five-Point Consensus and are coordinated with Indonesia, the current Asean chair,” he said.
He and other observers point to a new line in the communique by the ministers: “We were briefed by Thailand on its recent activities on Myanmar, which a number of Asean member states viewed as a positive development.”
Prior to last week, Asean had neither mentioned similar so-called Track 1.5 meetings in its statements nor recognised such engagements, which included one held in India in April and one in Bangkok in March.
Track 1.5, in terms of diplomacy, are discussions that include a mix of government officials who participate in an unofficial capacity, and non-governmental experts, all sitting at the same table.
5PC still way forward
That said, observers say the 5PC remains sacrosanct to the bloc, and Asean will have to come together to find a sustainable way forward on this issue.
The bloc will continue to refrain from harsh steps like imposing full-blown sanctions on Myanmar, and instead continue diplomatic efforts to try and make some headway in resolving the Myanmar crisis.
Asean as a bloc remains non-intrusive, in line with its policy that domestic issues should be managed by member states since they have sufficient capability to do so.
This common understanding enables each of them to avoid relying on Asean institutions.
“Ultimately, Asean’s principle of non-interference serves as a clear boundary, making the 5PC the best and perhaps the only collective choice for Asean to adhere to,” said Dedi.
Indonesia, as Asean chair in 2023, has vowed to do its best to improve the situation in Myanmar.
Jakarta said it has conducted 110 inclusive and intensive engagements with various parties there, including with the junta – which calls itself the State Administration Council – the opposition National Unity Government and others.
Much will also depend on who holds the bloc’s chairmanship. Laos takes over from Indonesia in 2024, and will be the first immediate neighbour of Myanmar to hold the Asean chairmanship since the coup.
“Communicative rationality, including when Laos will become Asean chairman, will be integral to implementing the five point consensus as the abiding framework to resolve the crisis in Myanmar,” said Mustafa.
Laos may prefer not to exclude any Asean members and may interfere less in the domestic affairs of Myanmar, Lin said.
In a survey by Iseas-Yusof Ishak this year, just 1.9% of respondents from Laos wanted Asean “to utilise harder methods to effectively curtail” the junta.
This was below the regional average of 18%, suggesting that the future Asean chair may not want to come down hard on Myanmar and consider further integrating the junta into the bloc’s activities.
Given how it is more accepting of the Myanmar junta, Laos may have greater access to some stakeholders like Suu Kyi, Lin added.
What the bloc may try to do next is to institutionalise the key decisions made, such as to maintain Myanmar’s non-political representation at the Asean Summits and Foreign Ministers’ meetings until progress has been made on the 5PC, she said.
“There needs to be continuity in Asean’s efforts across chairmanships so that the work of the respective special envoys will not go down the drain.” — The Straits Times/ANN
