China’s defence industry is exploring options to set up production in Turkey to expand its international market share, but will weigh the potential risks in its expansion drive, Chinese analysts said.
Risk factors like pressure from the United States and a less than satisfactory track record with Turkish business partners will be carefully considered by Chinese defence producers as they venture into the new market to take advantage of its Nato membership status, they said.
Chinese defence producers are interested in buying Turkish companies, according to a report by the US-based Defence News early this week, citing an unnamed Turkish government official responsible for organising the International Defence Industry Fair (IDEF), which will open in Istanbul next Tuesday.
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Seventy-four Chinese defence firms will participate in the four-day event, compared with only five from the US, the official was quoted as saying.
Ozgur Eksi, a defence analyst who leads Turkish media outlet TurDef, told the Defence News that Chinese firms will attend “mainly with a view to buying Turkish companies suitable for their longer-term targets”.
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“After acquisitions, [Chinese firms] will bring in their technology, enjoy low production costs in Turkey, produce Nato-standard systems and target Nato system-using markets,” Eksi was quoted as saying, without detailing what types of Chinese technologies would be introduced. “Those will be ‘made-in-Nato’ systems heading for countries using ‘made-in-Nato’ systems.”
The most likely candidate for a Chinese technology transfer to Turkey would be unmanned aerial vehicles. Ankara is eager to improve and upgrade its drone development, said Zhou Chenming, a researcher with the Beijing-based Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank.
“Weaknesses in Turkey’s TB2 drone have become apparent in the war in Ukraine,” said Zhou, referring to the small, medium-altitude Turkish drones developed by Baykar Technology, which are used by Ukraine’s armed forces.
“Ankara hopes that China will transfer its drone technology to help it upgrade the TB2, making it as capable as Chinese combat drones.”
The TB2 drone was hailed as a game changer for Ukrainian forces, but its limited payload of less than 100kg (220 pounds), a cruising speed of 130km (80 miles) per hour, and a maximum 27 hours of service, have made it vulnerable to detection.
China is the world’s leading exporter of armed drones and has a wide range of products, including the Caihong-series UAVs which can carry heavy payloads, and the BT-001 twin-tailed scorpion – both of which of are competitive with the American MQ-9 (Reaper UAV.
In additions to drones, China could also work with Turkey to produce multiple-launch rockets, tactical missiles and even air-defence systems, said former PLA instructor Song Zhongping.
“It will be win-win cooperation as Turkey is a Nato member, China can use Ankara’s special status to expand its overseas market,” Song said.
“But I don’t think the made-in-Turkey weapons systems would sell to Nato countries, those arms would only sell to non-Nato states or third party countries, just like Turkey has sold drones to Ukraine.”
However, Ni Lexiong, a military analyst from Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, was sceptical that China would transfer its core drone technology to Turkey.
“Turkey is a good player in the competition of the great powers. The world has seen how Ankara has taken advantage of the ongoing war in Ukraine,” Ni said.
Nato countries would not buy Turkish-made Chinese weapons, Ni said, out of concern the technology might contain a “back door” for China.
Zhou said that Chinese defence producers would likely tread carefully, in view of the fact that Turkey had cancelled a US$3.4 billion deal to buy long-range missile defence systems from China in 2015.
“Turkey aimed to use China to bargain for a better deal from other countries,” Zhou said, referring to Turkey’s agreement to pay US$2.5 billion for the Russian S-400 air defence system in 2017, two years after scrapping a deal with China.
“China will only close a deal if it’s profitable,” Zhou said.
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Fearing further isolation and sanctions from its Nato allies, Turkey later decided against making the Russian S-400 system operational. In response to the acquisition of the S-400, the US suspended Turkey’s membership in the multinational consortium that builds the fifth-generation F-35 fighter jet.
Turkey made a down payment of US$1.4 billion for the stealth aircraft, but never received any planes and the money has not been returned.
“China should be cautious in case Turkey has its own agenda to get a better outcome from the F-35 fighter jet deal from the US,” Ni said.
More from South China Morning Post:
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