Torrential rain brought by two successive typhoons has added to concerns over China’s food security, which is already under pressure as export bans from the likes of India have pushed up global prices, pushing officials and researchers to warn of a “severe impact” on agricultural production.
Typhoon Doksuri made landfall in China on Friday, and its remnants, along with the arrival of Typhoon Khanun this week, have flooded fields and damaged crops in northern China, with agricultural authorities worried about the potential effect on the northeast grain production base.
A number of countries, including major supplier India, have also recently announced rice export bans, raising concerns over price surges and panic buying despite sufficient domestic supply.
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“The rain caused floods in parts of northern China, but will have limited influence on overall production,” said Ma Wenfeng, an analyst with Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant.
“However, it’s another alert for unusual weather we’re increasingly seeing, which is definitely bringing growing detrimental effects on crop yields.”
At least 20 people in Beijing and Hebei province have died as a result of the downpours, and according to a the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on Wednesday, Beijing has allocated 432 million yuan (US$60.1 million) in financial help for agricultural producers.
But there is still “great uncertainty” about the short-term impact, while disaster reduction will be “extremely difficult and challenging”, the ministry added.
The heavy rain brought by Typhoon Khanun and Typhoon Doksuri are expected to exert a “severe impact” on China’s agricultural production as they continue to hit the rice-producing northeastern region, it said.
China is also facing a volatile global market as climate shocks in the rest of the world, along with recent bans on the export of rice by India, Russia and the United Arab Emirates have pushed up prices of staple food in the past weeks.
China has ample reserves and a stable domestic output, but panic buying in North America may spread to China, said Liu Yan, senior analyst at cngrain.com, an agricultural information provider that counts the state-owned China Grain Reserves Corporation among its shareholders.
“As multiple countries ban the export of rice, global rice prices are likely to climb further,” said Liu.
“Oftentimes, what affects the market is not just supply and demand, but also sentiment of market participators.”
India, the world’s top rice exporter, announced a ban on non-basmati white rice exports last month to curb domestic price increases, with Russia and the UAE then announcing their own restrictions.
Russia also refused to renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative last month, which had previously secured grain exports from war-ridden Ukraine.
In China, rice yields may also be reduced due to typhoons and events related to the El Nino climate pattern, Liu said.
“Also, the sowing acreage of rice has dropped due to structural adjustments, so there may be a moderate decrease in rice production this year from last year,” Liu added.
Agricultural departments across China have ordered farmers to grow more soybeans as Beijing has sought to reduce its reliance on imports in recent years amid growing geopolitical tensions and the Ukraine war.
China imported over 80 per cent of its soybeans in the past few years, according to customs data.
What is the state of China’s food-security drive, and is it succeeding?
Beijing has rolled out tough measures to ensure food self-sufficiency over the past years, including a nationwide campaign to reclaim arable land and huge investment in supporting domestic seed breeders to produce better-performing crop species.
Fighting disasters has been made the top priority by agricultural authorities as more severe heatwaves, droughts and floods are expected this summer, while there are also problems of insects and diseases, said Pan Wenbo, the head of the crop production department at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said last month.
Over 10 million acres (4 million hectares) of cropland has already been hit by natural disasters, up by 1.3 million acres in the same period last year, he added.
China has already suffered its first drop in its summer harvest since 2018, mainly due to destructive rain that hit the largest wheat-growing province of Henan in late May.
“Most of the young and experienced labourers from rural China are working in the cities if it’s not harvest season,” said Huo Xuexi, a professor of agricultural economics from Northwest A&F University in Shaanxi province.
“It would be costly for them to return to their hometown for disaster relief. So the government is facing big costs and difficulty in mobilising the public in the face of a disaster.”
More from South China Morning Post:
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- China food security: critical grain harvest sees first summer drop in 5 years, autumn dip may follow
- Climate change: what does El Nino mean for global energy, trade and agriculture? And where does China stand?
- China urged to push Russia to renew Black Sea Grain Initiative to avoid ‘blow to global food market’
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