The United States enjoys greater soft power and popularity in South-East Asia than China, presenting Washington a distinct advantage as the two giants face off in the strategically vital region, a comprehensive polling analysis released on Tuesday found.
A majority of citizens, particularly in the region’s most populous nations – Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam – trusted US policies and intentions more than China’s, according to the white paper by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. This gave the US the upper hand in cementing alliances on a range of issues or at least keeping regional states from aligning with Beijing to Washington’s detriment.
“Washington needs to be more attuned to how individual countries perceive their relations with the United States and China and shape its levers of engagement accordingly,” the 24-page report said.
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Growing concerns about Beijing’s behaviour and intentions create diplomatic and economic openings across the region, it added. “And Washington should advance a positive political, security, and economic agenda to meet the moment.”
But the report, titled “Assessing US and Chinese Influence in Southeast Asia”, also noted that soft power was not the only factor at play. It argued that hard power and the ability to deliver concrete benefits also matter, though it did not weigh in on their relative effectiveness.
On this count, China was widely seen as the major economic power in every country with sufficient data for analysis, other than in the Philippines. “And the reality is that on most metrics, China is widening the economic influence gap,” the report stated.
While the US is generally well regarded in Southeast Asia, there is also frustration that Washington has not had more of a presence in setting trade rules and investing, said Murray Hiebert, head of research at consultancy Bower Group Asia and author of Under Beijing’s Shadow: Southeast Asia’s China Challenge.
“The general attitude in most bigger countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, is that the US is a better security partner than is China, more trustworthy,” Hiebert said.
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“But on economics, there is huge disappointment in the US with the pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership,” he added, referring to a trade initiative linking 11 nations around the Asia-Pacific region that the US withdrew from in 2017 under then-president Donald Trump.
Some of the highest assessments of China’s strategic and economic clout in the CSIS survey were voiced in Cambodia and Laos. China was also the largest trading partner in all 10 countries analysed, and the largest investor in most, while the US was perceived as providing a significant amount of traditional development aid.
Past surveys have directly polled respondents. But CSIS took a different approach, opting instead to collate and weight already available regional and individual-country survey data to piece together a comprehensive picture from the granular data.
“Policymakers in Washington and regional capitals alike tend to make assumptions about Southeast Asian opinion using anecdotes or tiny elite samples, often from just a couple of countries,” the report explained.
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But the white paper also noted gaps in individual country polls given weaknesses in methodology, such as an outright lack of surveys in places like Myanmar and inconsistent polling on the views of politicians, academics and other elites.
It recommended that the US expand surveys of the general public as well as politicians and other elites in Southeast Asia to better understand how it is perceived. It further urged Washington to target initiatives with the greatest impact and judge their progress over time.
The US could improve its regional standing and take advantage of scepticism towards China’s motives and growing footprint by engaging more diplomatically, economically and on security issues, according to Jeremy Chan, a China and Northeast Asia consultant with Eurasia Group.
“A large part of Washington’s strategy should be based on simply showing up at regional forums and offering an alternative to the Chinese model, rather than trying to compete with China on total trade and investment,” Chan said.
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As for Beijing, it “could improve its image in the region by simply toning down some of its rhetoric and maritime claims and activities”, he added, noting: “This is likely not in the offing, however.”
Power dynamics, including soft power, change with evolving conditions, the report said, including China’s more “insular nationalism”, the ongoing economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and escalating strategic competition between the US and China.
The findings were drawn from prior surveys by Pew Research Centre, the Lowy Institute, the Merdeka Centre, Pulse Asia and Eurasia Group, among other think tanks and consultancies.
A Lowy survey released in April found that China’s diplomatic and economic ties were stronger than the US’s in Southeast Asia, while America got better marks in defence networks and cultural influence.
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