The annual number of newborns in China will stabilise at around 10 million while the population’s ageing accelerates, a senior researcher and government adviser has said. With more than 70 million estimated to be 80 years or older by 2035, demand for policy support in public services is expected to grow concurrently.
“The declining birth rate and ageing population will accompany the entire process of China’s socialist modernisation development,” said He Dan, director of the China Population And Development Research Centre, a think tank affiliated with the National Health Commission.
The size of the newborn population in China is expected to fluctuate but will remain at around 10 million for the foreseeable future, she said in an article published in the latest issue of the commission’s Population and Health magazine.
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Last year, Chinese mothers gave birth to 9.56 million babies – the lowest total in modern history and the first time the figure dipped below 10 million. Analysts have said births could further plunge to between 7 million and 8 million this year, setting a record low and further clouding the country’s demographic outlook.
In the meantime, the ageing of China’s population is also set to hasten. By 2035, the country’s average life expectancy is estimated to be more than 80 years old, up from 78.2 in 2021, He said.
At that time, the total population aged 80 and over will have reached 70 million, and is projected to double to more than 140 million in 2050, requiring more and higher-quality elderly care, she added.
Last year, China’s population declined for the first time in six decades as deaths outnumbered births and its overall population plummeted by 850,000 – 1.4118 billion in 2022, down from 1.4126 billion a year earlier.
A raft of natalist policies followed at local and central levels, but experts have conceded that immediate effects are unlikely and China must adapt to the “new normal”.
In the article, He also pointed out that China is unable to copy the steps other countries have taken because of uneven regional development and the unique challenges it faces amid structural reforms.
“Although China’s population has entered a stage of decreasing growth, for the foreseeable future, the population will still stay above one billion. By the end of the century, China will remain the world’s second most populous country, with a population significantly higher than that of other developed countries,” she said.
Other demographers have voiced similar projections for China’s birth rates, with some arguing that China’s natural population growth has entered a normalised phase of decline. They suggest it could fluctuate around zero for the next few years, instead of continuing to fall, and could see small drops without rapid decreases.
Although demographic crisis is seen as one of the major hurdles to China’s already fraught post-pandemic economic recovery, Stefan Angrick, an associate director and senior economist at Moody’s Analytics, pointed out in a report on Tuesday that a bigger problem facing China’s economy is weak domestic demand.
“Overemphasis of demographics and other supply-side factors can delay necessary fiscal and monetary policy in the face of a demand shock,” he said. “Capital accumulation and productivity improvements are more relevant drivers and should sustain future growth despite increasing demographic drag.
“Demographics are important,” Angrick concluded, “but they’re not destiny.”
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