Presumptive presidential nominee from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle Ganjar Pranowo (left) and his runnning mate Mahfud MD after the party announced the latter as the presumptive vice presidential candidate on Oct 18. - Antara
JAKARTA (The Jakarta Post/Asia News Network): The decision of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) to name popular Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) figure Mahfud MD as Ganjar Pranowo’s running mate, analysts say, could force Prabowo Subianto’s electoral alliance to reconsider its plan to pair the former general with Surakarta Mayor Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.
The PDI-P announced its Ganjar-Mahfud ticket on Wednesday (Oct 18) amid speculation that Prabowo would immediately tap Gibran as his running mate, following a controversial Constitutional Court ruling that effectively removed the legal barrier for him to contest the presidential election.
“[Mahfud] is a well-known figure whose thinking I understand,” PDI-P matriarch Megawati Soekarnoputri told a packed press conference at the party’s headquarters in Jakarta.
“He is an honest, brave person whose commitment and idealism are unquestionable, [and who has] an exceptionally broad portfolio,” she said.
Mahfud, who serves as the coordinating political, legal and security affairs minister in Jokowi’s cabinet, said he was ready to join the race for the nation’s top job.
“Together with Ganjar, I will dedicate myself, all my abilities, knowledge, experiences, to the nation and the state of Indonesia,” the 66-year-old said in his nomination speech.
A native of Madura, East Java, Mahfud is the second NU figure to be nominated for vice president in the 2024 race after National Awakening Party (PKB) chairman Muhaimin Iskandar, who is running alongside Anies Baswedan, the presidential nominee of the Coalition of Change for Unity (KPP).
Mahfud’s and Muhaimin’s candidacies further highlight the growing role of the country’s largest Muslim organisation in electoral politics, as well as the significance of NU bastion East Java as a battleground province.
While Mahfud is not a card-carrying member of the 40-million-strong NU, he is closely affiliated with the group: He was educated at an NU-run pesantren (Islamic boarding school) and has long been involved in NU-affiliated organisations such as its youth wing GP Ansor and the Wahid Institute.
The senior minister was almost picked as President Jokowi’s running mate in 2019 for his strong ties with NU.
His nomination was dropped at the 11th hour, however, after Muhaimin reportedly made the case that Mahfud was “not NU enough”.
President Jokowi then announced his running mate Ma’ruf Amin, who was then the NU supreme cleric, to bolster his popularity among the Muslim voter base.
While many question Mahfud’s credentials as an NU figure, he had been “painstaking in maintaining relationships with senior kiai [Islamic scholars], santri [pesantren students] and the pesantren network in the archipelago” said Ahmad Khoirul Umam, managing director of the Paramadina Public Policy Institute at Paramadina University in South Jakarta
Furthermore, Umam said Mahfud could attract educated urban voters who were familiar with his leadership quality.
Mahfud has a broad portfolio in all three branches of government, from serving as defence minister and law minister under president Abdurrahman “Gus Dur” Wahid to serving as a House of Representatives lawmaker and a Constitutional Court chief justice.
The Indonesia Onward Coalition (KIM), which comprises pro-Jokowi political parties, is now under pressure to name Prabowo’s running mate. Speculation is rife that he will team up with Gibran to further cement his brand as the true successor of President Jokowi.
Meanwhile, the President’s strained relationship with Megawati has reportedly prompted him to rally behind Prabowo and support his son’s vice presidential bid to safeguard his legacy after he steps down in October 2024.
But analysts say that with NU figures on the two presidential tickets declared to date, Prabowo might need to rethink the merits of having Gibran as his running mate.
If he decided against pairing with a strong NU figure, Umam said, “Prabowo would face great challenges in consolidating the NU voter base” in East Java, where Prabowo lacked popular support for his bids in 2014 and 2019.
Prabowo has two potential vice presidential picks with NU links: State-Owned Enterprises Minister Erick Thohir and East Java Governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa. But Erick was only made an honorary member of NU youth organisation Banser so he would not garner strong support from the NU grassroots, said Firman Noor, a political researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN).
Khofifah, on the other hand, was more interested in running for reelection as East Java governor, Firman noted.
Opinion surveys show that Ganjar is neck and neck with Defence Minister Prabowo, while Anies is trailing behind them in third place.
At this point, since no single candidate pair has a high enough electability to rake in more than 50 per cent of the vote in a single round, the losing candidate would likely be forced to pick a side in a runoff election.
