As one of the youngest candidates for Taiwan’s biggest opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT), Alfred Lin entered his first election race with little expectation of success.
Lin, 33, is a rising star in the island’s biggest opposition party, but his opponent was the formidable Ho Hsin-chun – a Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislator known as the “queen of votes” for her performance four years ago.
Ho, who won the highest number of votes in the entire 2020 legislative election, comfortably shrugged off Lin’s challenge on January 13 to retain her seat as a representative of Taichung city’s Dali and Taiping district.
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It was also a losing night for Lin’s party, which failed to take the legislature and the presidency to give the ruling DPP an unprecedented third term in power under president-elect William Lai Ching-te.
The KMT’s defeat is the first time in Taiwan’s 30 years of democracy that a political party has spent three consecutive terms in opposition, a record that has put the century-old KMT’s future – and even survival – under the spotlight.
New times, old problems
For Lin and a wave of younger KMT members like him, the obvious answer is change. “The results are regrettable, but also reflect that the party has many reforms [that need] to be done,” he said.
“We should review the management of KMT as a brand and also our cross-straits policy,” Lin added.
A generational divide within the KMT has led to open arguments as younger members challenge what they call opaque and conservative decision making processes by the party’s top leaders.
Complaints have also centred on the leadership’s perceived elitist attitude, with accusations of a lack for support for talented young members who do not come from a KMT family background.
Among the electorate, the traditionally Beijing-friendly KMT with its ageing support base appears to be growing increasingly irrelevant with each election cycle.
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Some analysts blame the KMT’s support for the one-China principle – the understanding that there is one China, without spelling out what that means – for its lack of appeal, particularly as Beijing ratchets up its military threats against the island.
In contrast, the DPP has refused to accept the principle, leading to a deterioration in relations with Beijing under the watch of Tsai Ing-wen, the island’s outgoing president.
Chang Chun-hao, a political scientist at Taipei’s Tunghai University, said the latest election results showed clearly that the KMT needs to review its position if the party is to remain relevant to voters.
“When Taiwan’s people have voted for the DPP to govern for 12 years, it shows that [they are] clearly endorsing the DPP’s cross-strait stance, instead of the KMT’s,” he said.
But not everyone agrees, including the KMT. Its post-election review concluded that “many beliefs and narratives ... are correct”, including the party’s position on cross-strait relations. The party did agree that it was hard to “fight against” the DPP’s narrative, however.
Politics professor Su Tzu-chiao, from Soochow University in Taipei, noted that only 40 per cent of the popular vote went to Lai. Most Taiwanese voted for either Hou Yu-ih from the KMT or Ko Wen-je, whose smaller Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) also favours more exchanges with Beijing.
The latest result could also be understood as 60 per cent of voters signalling that they were fine with voting for a candidate with moderate or more friendly cross-strait policies compared with the DPP, he said.
Lai achieved the second-lowest result for an elected Taiwanese president since 1996, and the party lost 2.58 million supporters compared with four years ago, as well as its legislative majority.
The DPP will have just 51 seats in the 113-member legislative yuan, compared with the 52 held by the KMT, which secured the speaker’s chair for its candidate Han Kuo-yu on Thursday. The TPP – which secured eight positions in its best result – will be a “critical minority” in the new legislature.
Overcoming legacy
According to Su, while the KMT’s cross-strait policy was not the key issue this time for voters, the party needs to review its stance on the one-China principle, unchanged since it reached an unofficial consensus with Beijing on the issue in 1992 when the party was in power.
“Because obviously, Beijing does not understand the 1992 consensus the way the KMT is presenting [it], and this has cost the KMT a lot of reputation,” Su said, adding that public opinion on the issue has changed drastically over the years.
Beijing – which considers Taiwan as part of its territory, to be brought under mainland control by force, if necessary – regards any move towards independence on the island as a red line that must not be crossed.
But support for a formal declaration of independence is growing, with a recent public opinion survey on cross-strait relations showing 48.9 per cent support for the controversial move.
The poll, released in September by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, found 26.9 per cent of respondents in favour of maintaining the status quo and 11.8 per cent supporting unification with the mainland.
In the same survey, an overwhelming majority of people aged 20-44 voiced the hope that Taiwan would one day declare its independence.
Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is firmly opposed to any unilateral change to the status quo and is also committed to supplying the island with weapons.
The Taiwan issue has increasingly been at the centre of China-US relations. Beijing, which is deeply suspicious of Washington’s intentions, has also vowed to retaliate against pro-independence advocates on the island.
According to observers, the challenge for the KMT will be how to maintain a pro-Beijing position that also aligns with public opinion, after years of being unable to come up with any new narratives.
Chang, from Tunghai University, said it was unavoidable that the KMT would need to review its stance on cross-strait relations ahead of the next round of local elections in 2026. He noted that the party would also face pressure from Beijing.
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In Chang’s view, the approach is likely to be “less pro-Beijing” but without drawing closer to the DPP’s position. “But it is difficult to predict how [it] would change ... The KMT will have to come up with something more moderate,” he said.
According to Chang, after the KMT’s 2020 presidential election loss, there were internal proposals by younger party members for a debate on its stance, but they were unable to bring about any changes.
But he is optimistic that the party could adapt with more moderate policies, as power shifts from the traditional and more pro-Beijing elites to younger members of the KMT.
For senior KMT operative Alexander Huang Chieh-cheng, the problem with its stance on cross-strait relations is not ideology, but that the party could have done better on promoting it to voters.
“But in a way, no matter what we do, it would be very difficult to wipe out concerns on this issue,” said Huang, an adviser to KMT chairman Eric Chu and head of the party’s international department.
“It is true that many voters today think very differently of themselves compared to people who live across the strait,” he added.
Huang said the biggest difference between today’s KMT and the party under former president Ma Ying-jeou is its proposal to reduce tensions in the Taiwan Strait on the basis of ramping up strategic preparations, including an increased military budget.
“We want people to know: this is not your father’s KMT,” said Huang, who is also a former deputy minister on Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council.
According to a KMT staffer who requested anonymity, the party attempted to make changes at the election by emphasising its stand against “one country, two systems” – Beijing’s proposed unification model – and saying less about the 1992 consensus.
But the party was thrown into controversy three days before the election when an interview with Ma was published by Deutsche Welle, the staffer said.
Instead of taking the opportunity to distance his party from its old cross-strait stance, Ma responded to the question of whether he could trust Chinese President Xi Jinping by observing that “as far as cross-strait relations go, you have to”.
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Ma did not attend Hou’s final campaign rally, in an apparent effort by the KMT presidential candidate to keep his distance from the former leader.
“The party knows that it must come up with something new on cross-strait relations, as it has always been burdened by these old but outdated stances because of bureaucracy and ‘old men’s politics’,” the staffer said.
“With Ma out of the picture, it actually creates space for the possibility of something new on [the issue].”
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According to Su, the political scientist from Soochow University, pro-Beijing and Beijing-friendly voices will continue to be “the basis that defines” Taiwan’s party politics.
“How much of a key issue it [is] for voters of course depends on geopolitical tensions between China and the US, and how that changes voters’ perceived security in the Taiwan Strait,” Su said.
Finding a way out
Fresh from his first election defeat, Lin is hopeful for the party’s future. The KMT has already been giving more young members an opportunity to take part in elections and take up roles in the party, he said.
The KMT will be the “youngest party” in the new legislature, with 18 of its elected candidates aged between 30 and 49.
According to Lin, this trend will be key to ultimately changing the “rigid impression and label” that the KMT is a “pro-Beijing party”.
He is also looking ahead, making plans to build his political career over the next four years before Taiwanese once again head to the polls to elect their representatives in the legislature.
“I will stay in this constituency and try to groom my own support base, and win this election next time,” said Lin, who moved from Taipei to his constituency in the central part of the island about six months ago.
“All power is local. If you are unable to grab hold of power locally, it is ultimately going to be difficult to push things through from the centre [of the party],” he said.
More from South China Morning Post:
- Taiwan election hopeful William Lai says KMT’s embrace of ‘one China’ is dividing island
- Beijing’s top spy agency accuses Taiwan of pushing ‘election interference’ rumours, vows to fight separatism
- Taiwan election: Joe Biden says US does not support independence
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