Seven exit polls predict that the alliance led by PM Narendra Modi’s BJP will win anywhere between 342 and 401 seats in the Lower House of Parliament. - Reuters
NEW DELHI: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to retain power for a third consecutive term, according to a clutch of exit polls released just hours after voting in India’s mammoth election drew to a close after 44 days.
Seven exit polls predict that the alliance led by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win anywhere between 342 and 401 seats in the Lok Sabha, the Lower House of Parliament, while the opposition “India” alliance will get between 109 and 201 seats. The halfway mark is 272 out of 543 elected seats.
The official results of the election – which ended amid sporadic violence in West Bengal – will be out on Tuesday (June 4), when votes would have been counted.
The BJP’s own projection during its campaign that its alliance would snag 400-plus seats appears to be out of reach, according to six exit polls.
The exit polls also indicate that the BJP, which has long had an image of being a North Indian party, has made some inroads in southern states in this election.
The Axis-My India exit poll predicts that the BJP alliance may win one or two seats in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, where Mr Modi campaigned extensively, and two or three seats in Kerala state.
In Tamil Nadu, regional party Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the exit poll predicted, would win 20 to 22 out of 39 seats.
Exit polls in India, however, have had a mixed record in predicting results.
In the 2019 election, all exit polls predicted a win for the BJP-led alliance, but either underestimated or overestimated the final tally. Ultimately, the alliance won 353 seats, 303 of which were mustered by the BJP alone. The opposition Congress party won 52 seats.
In 2004, exit polls got it wrong when they predicted a win for the BJP, with the election ultimately won by Congress.
The political parties have also put out their own seat projections for this election. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge said after a meeting of opposition leaders that the India alliance would get 295 seats. BJP president J.P. Nadda said the BJP would win 370 seats.
Congress had on May 31 announced that it would boycott exit poll debates on Indian news channels, but reversed the decision following consultation with its allies in a meeting of opposition leaders.
The Samajwadi Party, a member of the opposition alliance, has termed the early forecasts the “BJP’s exit polls”.
The 2024 General Election – India’s longest ever – was a massive electoral exercise, with 970 million voters eligible to vote to decide the future course of the country.
Many braved the searing heat to cast their vote. Voter turnout in the first six phases of the election was over 65 per cent, with the summer heatwave seen as one reason for the marginal dip from 2019’s 67 per cent voter participation rate. In the seventh and final phase, turnout was around 58.3 per cent by 5pm on June 1.
Analysts said that while the opposition had put up a more spirited fight than in 2019, the BJP remained the front runner throughout the election.
“The magic number is 272. As long as Modi gets 272-plus seats in Parliament, reforms will continue and big-ticket projects will continue. The BJP will continue to have dominance in Indian politics,” said political analyst and journalist Rasheed Kidwai, who noted that the election was not as one-sided as anticipated.
The BJP has been confident of an election win, with Modi – even before the election – announcing that his government is preparing a road map for the first 100 days in the new term.
Among the 57 constituencies that went to the polls on June 1 was Modi’s constituency of Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh, a politically important state that sends 80 lawmakers to the Lok Sabha – the maximum number.
Party leaders descended on Varanasi for the last campaign push, although the Prime Minister himself spent the last few days of the election campaign meditating at the Vivekananda Rock Memorial in Kanyakumari, Tamil Nadu, from May 30 to June 1.
The highly popular Modi was seen as the clear front runner from the get-go, with the opposition in disarray when the election started.
The BJP’s campaign centred on Modi and his achievements, including helming the world’s fastest-growing economy, raising India’s global standing, promoting Hindu nationalism, and expanding pro-poor schemes ranging from free food grains to subsidised housing.
Nevertheless, the opposition parties managed to come together in multiple states, and brought greater focus to issues like unemployment and price rise.
Analysts noted that the rainbow coalition rallied after the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister and Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal in a scam related to the sale of liquor, besides other action taken against the opposition such as the Income Tax Department temporarily freezing the Congress party’s bank accounts.
The opposition seized upon the BJP’s appeal for voters to grant it 370-plus seats and 400 plus for its alliance to push a narrative that the ruling party aims to change the country’s Constitution.
The bitter campaign between the BJP and the India alliance saw opposition parties and other critics accuse Modi of delivering polarising speeches to consolidate the Hindu vote.
The BJP and Modi denied the charge, and instead accused the opposition of favouring the minority Muslim community over the majority Hindu population.
“BJP is dominating the agenda and the scenario,” Nadda, the party’s president, said in a television interview.
“The ‘Modi 3.0’ government will see many new things and experiments.” - The Straits Times/ANN
