Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr told soldiers that Manila still wants to peacefully deal with China but will not yield to any foreign power. - PHILIPPINE PRESIDENTIAL COMMUNICATIONS OFFICE
MANILA: The Philippines has exercised restraint in its recent response over ongoing maritime clashes with China, say analysts, in what they describe as Manila’s attempt to de-escalate tensions and avoid triggering war over a disputed shoal in the South China Sea.
The Philippines needs to rethink how it deals with an increasingly aggressive Beijing, observers say, after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said Manila still wants to peacefully settle its dispute with China despite a clash on June 17 between the Philippine Navy and blade-bearing members of the Chinese coast guard.
“The whole issue here is China was able to get away with it because the Philippine forces exercised self-restraint, so the situation did not erupt into anything bigger,” maritime security expert Collin Koh of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore told The Straits Times.
“If that is the type of restraint that was being directed from the top, then it might have been excessive. There was a desire to err on the side of caution, but I don’t know whether it is in fact counter-productive or productive because it actually emboldened the Chinese,” added Dr Koh.
Sticking to its months-long strategy of exposing Chinese behaviour in the disputed sea, Manila was quick to release videos of the Chinese coast guard ramming and boarding the Philippine Navy’s inflatable boats, and brandishing knives, machetes and even a pickaxe, as the Chinese side aimed to disrupt a resupply mission for Philippine troops stationed on the Second Thomas Shoal.
Since August 2023, China has been obstructing and firing water cannon at Philippine ships delivering supplies to soldiers at the rusting warship BRP Sierra Madre, which has been grounded at the shoal since 1999 to serve as Manila’s remote military outpost.
But top Philippine officials seemed to scramble on how to actually respond to the encounter days later.
Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin first downplayed it as a “misunderstanding” with China.
On June 23, President Marcos flew to the military’s headquarters on the island province of Palawan, directly facing the South China Sea, and told soldiers there that Manila still wants to peacefully deal with China but will not yield to any foreign power.
“We stand firm. Our calm and peaceful disposition should not be mistaken for acquiescence,” Marcos said, as he gave medals to honour the 80 soldiers deployed during the mission, including the eight who were injured.
Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr echoed the same messaging on June 24, clarifying that the Philippines was not downplaying what he described as China’s “aggressive and illegal use of force”.
But he stopped short of calling it an armed attack, which would have invoked Manila’s Mutual Defence Treaty with the United States. Marcos has said the treaty would be triggered only if a foreign power kills a Filipino serviceman.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry on June 24 told the Philippines to “stop its infringement and provocation” and “work with China to safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea”. It also asked the Philippines to stop “misleading the international community”.
The Philippines’ muted response to the latest skirmish might have been influenced by how it perceives the US’ willingness to uphold its treaty obligations, said South-east Asian defence and security expert Rahman Yacoob of the Lowy Institute in Australia.
Though Washington has repeatedly reiterated its commitment to defend Manila, the US is currently preoccupied with the military crises in Ukraine and the Middle East.
“I believe Washington is not keen to escalate the situation further because it is supplying weapons to Ukraine and, at the same time, it is bogged down in the Middle East. The US Navy is also engaged in the Red Sea,” Dr Yacoob told ST.
“All these factors, I would say, encourage the US to avoid a military confrontation with China at this point in time.”
He said the Philippines is now challenged to find a way to outmanoeuvre China at the tactical level to get through the blockade at Second Thomas Shoal without resorting to violence.
He suggested tapping the US to use unmanned water vehicles to clear the blockade first so that supply ships can reach the shoal. He also raised the idea of deploying some American troops to the shoal to help deter further Chinese aggression.
He also said that continuing joint patrols with other countries in the South China Sea would help the Philippines counter China. Manila had started holding joint patrols in the disputed waterway with its allies, the US, Japan and Australia, earlier in 2024.
Maritime security expert Don McLain Gill of the De La Salle University in Manila told ST that the Philippines needs to do more in the face of a more assertive China.
He said the Philippines could equip its naval and coast guard forces with non-lethal weapons, and train them to react should a similar skirmish with China at sea recur.
Manila can also explore deploying bigger vessels and building a more permanent presence on the shoal amid the deteriorating conditions on the BRP Sierra Madre.
“Given our limited resources, we have to pursue a multi-dimensional approach towards our waters. The transparency initiative is one dimension. We must continue to supplement this with other dimensions that would catalyse a more robust physical deterrence vis-a-vis China,” he said. - The Straits Times/ANN
