Possible talks between China and the Philippines about their dispute in the South China Sea may not result in a breakthrough even if they do help to build trust between the two sides, observers have said.
Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo told a senate hearing this week that a working group had discussed the proposals earlier this month and Manila was hoping the talks could take place in July.
Manalo said that Manila is committed to working with Beijing on developing “confidence-building measures” following a series of clashes in recent months.
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On Wednesday, the Philippine ambassador to the United States Jose Manuel Romualdez also said Manila wants talks to take place “early next month”, adding: “I don’t think China wants to have a major conflict. And definitely we do not want to have one. And so, that’s a good starting point.”
China has not confirmed if the talks will go ahead and the foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
China claims most of the South China Sea but the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei all have competing claims over the resource-rich waterway.
In recent years Manila has been the most assertive in countering Beijing’s claims and there have been a series of clashes around disputed reefs in recent months.
The presence of Philippine troops on the BRP Sierra Madre, a decrepit World War II-era ship that was deliberately grounded on the reef in 1999, has resulted in a series of confrontations between Chinese coastguards and ships carrying supplies.
Last week, a sailor lost a thumb after Chinese coastguards armed with knives, machetes, and other weapons intercepted troops on a resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal, according to the Philippines military.
In a phone call with Chinese Foreign Vice-Minister Ma Zhaoxu, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell “raised serious concerns” regarding China’s “destabilising actions” in the South China Sea, including at Second Thomas Shoal.
According to a US State Department readout, Campbell also reiterated that US commitments to the Philippines under the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty remain ironclad.
Ding Duo, an associate research fellow at China’s Hainan-based National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said: “At present, it is hard to say whether significant results can be achieved [in the talks]. It will mainly depend on whether the two sides can reach a certain consensus on controlling maritime differences.”
He added that both Beijing and Manila want to try to calm the situation, which he said was “overheating”.
“The Philippines does not want to go as far as a large-scale conflict with China or even war,” he said.
Ding also said Beijing wanted to “manage differences, de-escalate the situation and maintain peace and stability”.
However, he warned there is currently “very little consensus and very little mutual trust” but added that talks may be of “some help in enhancing mutual trust and keeping the [negotiating] mechanism running”.
On Sunday President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr said the Philippines should “refuse to play by the rules that force us to choose sides in a great power competition.”
He added that Manila will seek to “settle all these issues peacefully” but its “calm and peaceful disposition should not be mistaken for acquiescence”.
The most recent high-level talks between China and the Philippines in January made little progress.
Beijing later said Manila had agreed to a “new model” for resupply missions in the Second Thomas Shoal only to break its word. Last month Bloomberg reported that Beijing had threatened to release a transcript of phone conversations to support its claims.
Ding said the Philippine armed forces may now be hoping for time to adjust to the situation.
“The consultative mechanism between China and the Philippines, to some extent, is being used by the Philippines as a kind of palliative to put off [conflict] and buy time for the next move,” he said.
But Jay Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea, said a major challenge for the potential talks is to reach an acceptable modus vivendi, not including “the regular employment of coercion and unilateral imposition by China upon the Philippines”.
“Unless China recognises that the Philippines has its own individual national interests and removes the obstacles, the Philippines will naturally and logically keep turning to its allies, partners and friends in the international community to address the coercive pressures from China,” he said.
Since coming to power, Marcos has moved to strengthen military ties with the United States, a long-term ally.
Although Washington “welcomes the Philippine tilt towards the US”, it is mindful of broader regional sensitivities, said Dylan Loh, an assistant professor in the Public Policy and Global Affairs Programme at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.
“I think Washington will certainly welcome any talks that reduce the risk of the situation from deteriorating even further and it certainly does not want to see conflicts in the SCS [South China Sea] that may eventually entangle itself,” Loh said.
Last week Nicholas Burns, the US ambassador to China, told the BBC that Beijing and Washington are talking more regularly to avoid a conflict in the South China Sea despite their “contentious and competitive” relationship.
He added that “the last thing we want is an accident, a misunderstanding that leads to conflict”.
More from South China Morning Post:
- US urged to take firm steps in support of Philippines amid rising South China Sea tensions
- South China Sea: Beijing urges UN not to consider Philippine request to extend continental shelf
- China says Philippines rammed Chinese boats, attacked personnel in Second Thomas Shoal stand-off
- South China Sea: photos show Chinese coastguard encircled, boarded Philippine boat
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