Haze in central Singapore on Oct 7, 2023. The warming El Nino was a main contributor to the 2023 less severe haze episode in Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia. - ST
SINGAPORE: There is low risk of transboundary haze shrouding Singapore and the region in 2024 as wetter weather is expected with the potential return of La Nina, while the risk of fires from the expansion of plantations in Indonesia is relatively low.
This is the forecast of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) in its 2024 haze outlook report, released on Monday (July 8). It is the second time the local think-tank has issued a green or low-risk rating in its six-year run. A green rating was first given in 2021, which was in the middle of a prolonged La Nina spell.
A possible respite from unhealthy air quality is expected as the rainy La Nina climate phenomenon is set to return later in 2024.
The warming El Nino was a main contributor to 2023’s less severe haze episode in Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia. The phenomenon tapered off in mid-2024.
“Rainfall will be roughly average for the key fire risk months of August, September and October, or potentially wetter than normal for the period if the La Nina phenomenon occurs,” said the report.
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is a 65 per cent chance for La Nina to emerge between July and September, and an 85 per cent chance from November.
Apart from the weather, SIIA analysed market trends and fire prevention policies before putting together the report.
Haze comes from the burning of peat and other vegetation in Indonesia, where fire is used to clear land for agricultural use or to get rid of agricultural waste.
The report’s authors studied economic factors to see if plantations may increase, and assessed that the risk of haze from plantation expansion is relatively low in the near term.
However, oil palm trees planted between the 1990s and early 2000s are now due for replanting. It is unclear if replanting will contribute to haze risk, said the report.
SIIA chairman Simon Tay acknowledged that fire prevention measures taken by the Indonesian government, organisations, locals and the private sector had dampened the smoke and fires in 2023 despite severe drought. Efforts were also made to re-wet fire-prone and degraded peatlands.
In 2023, El Nino coincided with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another climate pattern that brings drier weather to the region. This made the dry season more severe than normal, but there were fewer fires in 2023 than in previous years, such as 2015 and 2019, when both climate phenomena coincided.
“This gives us reason to hope that South-east Asia has finally turned a corner in addressing the region’s haze problem,” Associate Professor Tay said in the report’s foreword.
Singapore had a brief episode of haze on Oct 6 and 7, 2023, when the Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) crossed into the unhealthy range. But this was a far cry from the 2015 South-east Asian haze crisis – when Singapore’s 24-hour PSI surpassed 300, reaching the hazardous range, and forced schools to close for a day.
Beyond 2024, haze risk will depend on Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto’s governance and policies, the report noted.
While he has pledged to continue with President Joko Widodo’s environmental policies, peatland restoration and carbon emissions reduction targets, the President-elect also aims to prioritise economic growth and food security.
Prabowo – who takes office in October – aims to achieve 8 per cent economic growth within the first three years of his term, and this will depend on further development in Indonesia’s plantation and forestry sectors, wrote Prof Tay.
“The ambition of the Prabowo government is to move to 8 per cent of the GDP (gross domestic product)... There are signs that the answer must not be in using more land or more resources, but (increasing) productivity, innovation and better management,” added Prof Tay during a media briefing on the report on July 8.
Prabowo also aims to progressively raise palm oil content in biodiesel from the current 35 per cent to 40 per cent by 2025, potentially reaching 50 per cent by 2029.
“There will, therefore, be caution about any plantation and farmland expansion in fire-prone areas, or areas with large amounts of untouched primary forest, such as Papua,” said the report.
Since 2011, Indonesia has stopped issuing new permits to clear forests and peatlands. In 2019, Widodo made the moratorium permanent to protect the archipelago’s remaining forests.
When asked if Prabowo’s economic growth ambitions may breach the moratorium, Prof Tay cited the European Union’s deforestation regulation, which takes effect on Dec 30. It states that EU businesses importing goods such as palm oil and soya must prove that the products are not connected to any recent deforestation.
“This will require (Indonesia) to keep the deforestation pledge, keep the moratorium and show that due diligence has been done with all imports to Europe. And that’s a price for Indonesia, too, given its net-zero commitments.
“So I think there are a lot of reasons why Prabowo would do his utmost to keep the promises Jokowi (Widodo’s nickname) made on the moratorium and yet also make sure the sector provides that contribution to 8 per cent growth,” said Prof Tay.
He stressed the need to prioritise efficiency and good yield in existing plantations over clearing more forests to create more agricultural land.
SIIA associate director for sustainability Khor Yu-Leng noted that for some smallholders, about seven in 10 of their oil palm trees are of poor quality, with low yields. About 40 per cent of the total oil palm plantation area in Indonesia belongs to smallholders.
She added that there is a new laboratory for genomic testing in Indonesia to help smallholders plant better-yielding seeds and use better planting materials.
The report concluded that climate change could also fuel the frequency and intensity of drought-like conditions in the region, increasing fire and haze risks and putting more pressure on fire management efforts.
Currently, El Nino or positive IOD events appear to be occurring every four or five years. This suggests that another high-risk period may occur from around 2027 onwards, the report noted. - The Straits Times/ANN
