HANOI: The death of Vietnam’s Communist Party chief Nguyen Phu Trong has left an opening for his former anti-corruption enforcer to take the nation’s most powerful job at a time the one-party state seeks to maximise gains from US-China competition.
Trong, 80, died on Friday (July 19) after years of speculation over his poor health and factional infighting over who would succeed him. Stepping into his post as interim general secretary is To Lam, 67, (pic) who for years oversaw a corruption crackdown that has ensnared scores of party officials, including those at the very top.
Lam, who became president in May after his predecessors resigned to take responsibility for "violations,” will carry out the duties of the secretary general role until the party’s central executive committee chooses a successor. He is one of the few who are eligible to take over at the next Party Congress in 2026 and has become the odds-on favourite to do so, according to analysts.
"He’s the front-runner now,” said Le Hong Hiep, a senior fellow with the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore who was a former Vietnam foreign ministry official.
"There may be some resistance from other factions and against his rise, but given his current status and the current circumstances, it’s very unlikely that anyone can stop him from clinching the job.”
A top priority for Lam will be to drive the economy as the government ramps up public spending and lures foreign investors. In the first half of 2024, Vietnam utilised less than a third of its budget, even slower than the previous year as the graft crackdown paralysed decision-making in the bureaucracy.
Before becoming president, Lam served for eight years as the minister of public security and was the primary enforcer of Trong’s legacy-defining anti-corruption campaign dubbed as a "blazing furnace.” His ministry oversaw several high-profile cases that ensnared numerous party officials since 2021 including Politburo members, deputy prime ministers and more than a dozen provincial leaders.
Earlier this month, Lam pitched a more measured approach to combating graft, one that aims to avoid impeding economic growth and progress. Such efforts should not lead to "wrongfully convicting” the innocent and should create conditions for "a stable environment for the country’s development,” he was cited as saying.
"The one important thing the government needs to address is how to issue discipline, punishment to people without hurting markets and the economy,” said Tran Dinh Thien, a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council and the former head of Vietnam Economic Institute.
Vietnam’s economy was among the fastest-growing in South-East Asia last quarter even with the slump in state spending. Fund manager Ruchir Desai of Asia Frontier Capital Ltd said Friday that any uncertainty offers a buying opportunity.
"We believe there will be no changes to economic policies by whomever is ultimately selected” as general secretary, VinaCapital Group Ltd, one of Vietnam’s largest asset and investment companies, said in a note to investors.
"These policies have been remarkably consistent over the past twenty-plus years, and we firmly believe that they will continue to drive growth and development for decades to come.”
The question of who would succeed Trong has lingered for years. Even though he kept his job for an unprecedented third term during the last party reshuffle in 2021, Trong failed to position his preferred conservative candidate as successor. Nguyen Xuan Phuc, who was also once seen as a candidate for the job, was ousted as president last year after assuming political responsibility for the so-called "shortcomings” from two graft cases.
And while that political uncertainty had yet to rattle those who flocked to Vietnam in the aftermath of the US-China trade war, it remains a risk for a nation that has been a huge beneficiary of the spat. Foreign direct investment surged 32% in 2023, with the country attracting about US$36.6 billion of funds.
In a region that has sought to balance geopolitical tensions, Lam has shown himself to be a capable practitioner of Vietnam’s "firm and flexible” foreign policy - known as bamboo diplomacy - since taking over the largely ceremonial presidency. While deepening ties with Washington, Lam has welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin in June during a rare visit designed to cultivate Hanoi’s decades-long relationship with Moscow.
In Vietnam’s consensus-based system of governance, that strategy is expected to continue regardless of who ultimately retains power.
Holding both roles of general secretary and president is not unprecedented - Trong did from 2018 to 2021. Occupying the top two positions in Vietnam’s political hierarchy now could allow Lam to consolidate power ahead of the next Party Congress.
"It’s very likely that he will hold the two positions concurrently until perhaps 2026,” Hiep from ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute said. "Or until they can agree on the new president.” - Bloomberg
