Deal or no deal? China and Philippines at odds over Second Thomas Shoal resupply agreement


Beijing urged Manila to keep its word on Monday as the two countries disputed key elements of a deal over resupply missions to a South China Sea shoal within hours of it being struck.

“We hope that the Philippine side will honour its commitments, work with the Chinese side and jointly manage the situation at sea,” Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said.

The Philippines said late on Sunday that it had reached an agreement with China on resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed reef controlled by Manila. The statement did not refer to any conditions.

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The Philippines grounded the ageing BRP Sierra Madre on the shoal in 1999 and has stationed troops there to assert its claims over the area.

Beijing confirmed early on Monday that a deal had been struck, adding that it was subject to three conditions: that the Sierra Madre be towed away, prior notification and “on-site verification” be given, and no construction materials be included in the supplies.

“If the Philippines were to send large amount of construction materials to the warship and attempt to build fixed facilities or permanent outpost, China will absolutely not accept it and will resolutely stop it in accordance with the law and regulations to uphold China’s sovereignty, ” the ministry said.

However, Manila disputed Beijing’s suggestions that the two had agreed to prior notification and on-site verification by China.

Philippine foreign ministry spokeswoman Teresita Daza said the principles and approaches laid out in the agreement were reached through consultations “that paved the way for a convergence of ideas without compromising national positions”.

“The [Chinese] spokesperson’s statement therefore regarding prior notification and on-site confirmation is inaccurate,” Daza said.

In Beijing, Mao said the “provisional arrangement on humanitarian resupply of living necessities” with the Philippines had demonstrated “the goodwill of China”.

Observers said the dispute between the rival claimants remained deep and there was no sign that either would back down. But the deal could be seen as an effort to manage the maritime crisis.

“China’s positions have not changed, and the deal could be seen as a continuation of previous verbal deals such as ‘gentlemen’s agreements, that have now been put in words’,” said Ding Duo, deputy director of the Institute of Maritime Law and Policy at National Institute for South China Sea Studies.

Beijing has said in the past that the two parties had struck gentlemen’s agreements for the resupply missions – agreements that Manila has disputed, only for China to accuse the Philippines of reneging on its commitments.

China has since stepped up countermeasures, including the use of water cannons, to block the Philippine resupply missions.

During what Manila called the worst confrontation in recent years, the Chinese coastguard boarded two Philippine navy boats last month to stop personnel from transferring food and other supplies, including firearms, to troops stationed on the shoal.

Eight Philippine sailors were injured in the subsequent clashes, including one who lost a thumb. The Philippines has not carried out any resupply missions since then.

Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, said Beijing might benefit more by striking a deal with Manila, especially after the June 17 confrontation, which dealt a blow to China’s reputation in the region.

“It certainly allows China to put forth a narrative that is still keen on dialogue and to peacefully manage the dispute with the Philippines,” Koh said.

“If the agreement does help to constrain Filipino freedom of action in some way, it is still a win for China.”

He said the deal could also be part of Beijing’s “long game” by forestalling any potential moves by the Philippines to rehabilitate the Sierra Madre, which is falling apart.

“If the deal helps China to drag the issue all the way to 2028, which is the Philippine presidential election, then it will still achieve the purpose of China.”

Neither side has released the full text of the deal, and observers agreed that the next resupply mission would be watched closely.

“What I will envisage is any such resupply mission will fall under the watchful eye of the Chinese forces,” Koh said. “In other words, we’re not going to see Beijing withdrawing maritime forces from the Second Thomas Shoal.”

Meanwhile, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Saturday that the US “will do what is necessary” to support resupply missions.

However, Philippine National Security Council spokesman Jonathan Malaya said on Sunday that the country preferred the resupply missions to be purely Philippine operations.

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