Emcees stand with Si Mayor, the mascot for the 2024 Jakarta gubernatorial election, on the stage during the election's launch at the National Monument (Monas) in Jakarta on May 25, 2024. - Photo: Antara file
JAKARTA: A possible rematch between Anies Baswedan and Basuki “Ahok” Tjahja Purnama appears to be gathering steam, with the two former Jakarta governors emerging as the top-two contenders being favoured by voters in a recent opinion poll for the coming Jakarta gubernatorial race.
A survey released by pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia on Thursday (July 25) showed Anies and Ahok emerging as two of the three top-of-mind prospective candidates among respondents who were asked to name a figure they would vote for if the election were held today.
Both Anies and Ahok fought in the 2017 gubernatorial election, widely considered an election marred by sectarian politics.
Anies won the election, while Ahok was subsequently found guilty of blasphemy and sentenced to two years in prison.
In the open-ended query in the Indikator Politik survey, Anies emerged as the frontrunner with 39.7 percent of respondents favoring him, followed by Ahok with 23.8 percent.
Trailing behind them was former West Java governor Ridwan Kamil with 13.1 percent.
The two former Jakarta governors also consistently emerged as the top-two choices among respondents across various simulations of different prospective candidates in the survey.
Indikator polled 800 respondents of voting age across Jakarta from June 18 to 26, and the results of the survey had a 3.5 percent margin of error with a 95 percent confidence level.
Anies, who served as Jakarta governor from 2017 to 2023, however, came out top in the head-to-head simulation between him and Ahok, with 52 percent of respondents favoring him over Ahok, who received only 42 percent support.
“[Ahok] doesn't have a strong enough appeal to attract Ridwan’s voters in the head-to-head simulation,” Indikator Politik executive director Burhanuddin Muhtadi said, noting that this is in part due to Ahok’s “historical burden that leaves his support stagnant and unable to attract support from the conservative Muslim base in Jakarta”.
Uncertain political support
The candidacies of both Anies and Ahok, however, hinge on whether political parties will form alliances and give them the required tickets.
Anies is not affiliated with any political party.
But the largest party in the city, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), and the NasDem Party, the main sponsors of his unsuccessful presidential bid in February, have offered him their early support for another run in November.
With NasDem and the PKS joining forces to back his gubernatorial bid, Anies looks set to fulfill the legal requirements to become a candidate: having the support of a coalition of parties that holds at least 20 percent of seats in the regional legislative council.
But nothing is certain given the two parties and other potential sponsors are still far from agreeing on who will be the running mate of Anies, particularly since the PKS insists its former chairman Sohibul Iman should be on the ballot.
The National Awakening Party (PKB), which has been considering supporting Anies as well, said on Monday that the party had a long list of talented members eligible to be paired with the former governor.
But it stopped short of providing any specific names.
Ahok, a member of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), has not announced whether he will run for Jakarta governor in November, stressing that the decision on his candidacy would rest with the party matriarch Megawati Soekanoputri.
Addressing the potential rematch between Anies and Ahok, PDI-P secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto declined to comment much about a possible straight fight between the two, suggesting that the party was still open to backing Anies as well.
“Let’s put it this way: Sometimes we oppose [Anies], sometimes we prefer to have a dialogue with Pak Anies,” Hasto said in a press release on Tuesday.
While the PDI-P has been exploring the possibility of forging an alliance with the PKB to pair politicians from the two parties in a joint ticket, PKB deputy chair Jazilul Fawaid said on Wednesday that his party preferred to see the two parties support Anies in Jakarta instead.
“Let me stress that we are still in line with the aspiration of the PKB’s Jakarta branch for the Jakarta election. Pak Anies is the gubernatorial candidate,” Jazilul said.
Dark horse?
Noting that the majority of respondents have already made up their mind on who should be the next Jakarta governor, Indikator’s Burhanuddin said the possibility of a dark horse or a strong contender other than Anies, Ahok or Ridwan emerging was increasingly unlikely.
This is because “voters’ choices have narrowed down [to three candidates]” and other candidates do not have ample time to boost their electability, something that is not easy in the Jakarta race, Burhanudin said.
Even in the open-ended query, Burhanuddin noted, only 16.1 percent of respondents either were still undecided or declined to name a prospective candidate they had in mind, while 76.6 percent of respondents either named Anies, Ahok or Ridwan as their preferred candidates.
But Ridwan’s candidacy hinges on his party Golkar, which recently gave its strongest hint yet that the party is now fully pushing Ridwan for reelection in West Java and pulling him away from Jakarta. - The Jakarta Post/ANN
