JAKARTA: The mayor of Medan in North Sumatra, Bobby Nasution (pic), the son-in-law of President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo, is leading in an early public opinion poll for prospective candidates in the province’s upcoming gubernatorial race.
In the survey published by Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) on Sunday (July 28), Bobby of the Gerindra Party came out as the most electable candidate in the simulation of 23 prospective candidates for the November race, with 41.2 per cent of respondents favouring him.
Bobby so far has secured early support from all four members of the Onward Indonesia Coalition (KIM), an electoral alliance in the February presidential election widely perceived as a rival to the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Bobby’s former party.
They include Gerindra, the Golkar Party, which won the most seats in North Sumatra in February’s legislative election, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the Democratic Party.
In the survey, Bobby was followed by former North Sumatra governor Edy Rahmayadi with 21.1 per cent. Edy, a retired military general, won the previous election in 2018 on the ticket of Gerindra and eight out of the 11 parties in the province, against PDI-P executive Djarot Syaiful Hidayat, who ran on the ticket of PDI-P and the one remaining party in the province.
Edy has expressed his intention to seek reelection in November but has not received any support from a political party so far.
In a distant third was another PDI-P politician and former Jakarta governor Basuki "Ahok" Tjahaja Purnama with 7.3 per cent. He was followed by Musa “Ijeck” Rajekshah of Golkar.
The electability ratings of the remaining potential names were only in the lower single digits, including those of Ahok’s colleagues, former North Tapanuli regent Nikson Nababan with 2.4 per cent and Djarot with 0.6 per cent.
LSI polled 800 respondents of voting age across North Sumatra in person from July 7 to 17, and the results of the survey had a 3.5 per cent margin of error with a 95 per cent confidence level.
Despite being the second-largest party in North Sumatra and being eligible to field its own candidate pair, the PDI-P has yet to name a candidate. But the PDI-P is determined to prevent Bobby from being the sole candidate and claiming an easy victory.
“The course of the election depends on the PDI-P and whom we will nominate,” Djarot said in the discussion held by LSI on Sunday.
“We are still weighing names; we can nominate our own candidate but we're also communicating with other parties to forge a potential alliance."
PDI-P spokesperson Chico Hakim previously said the party had been considering nominating its own members, including Djarot, Nikson and House of Representatives lawmaker Sofyan Tan, to challenge the heavily favored rival.
The PDI-P is now in talks with the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which has said it might consider forging a partnership with the PDI-P to nominate Edy instead.
But nothing is set until political parties register their candidates with the General Elections Commission (KPU) in late August, and the LSI survey suggests that the competition in the province is still wide open, depending on who will be on the ballot and their campaign strategies.
With the total of undecided voters making up some 13 percent in the survey, more than a quarter of those favouring Bobby or Edy said they might still change their minds when the campaign season starts.
“Not to mention that 70 per cent of all respondents, regardless of their preference, said they preferred to make their final choice after seeing the campaigns, days before voting day or even on voting day itself,” LSI executive director Djayadi Hanan said.
“So, even though Bobby and Edy so far seem to lead the competition, the race is still dynamic
While Edy is the best-known politician in North Sumatra, scoring about 90 per cent in the survey, he was short in terms of likability, at 68 per cent. Bobby’s recognition score, on the other hand, tended to match his likability rating, at 88 per cent and 82 per cent, respectively.
“People won’t choose a candidate if they do not know them. But being well known does not necessarily translate into votes, if they are not likeable,” Djayadi said.
Bobby’s early lead was also captured in a May survey from local pollster the Vote Institute, which found that he had the most voter support, at 35.2 per cent, followed by Edy with 23.1 per cent and the PDI-P’s Ahok with 13.1 per cent.
Last month, an electability survey from local pollster the Timur Barat Research Center found instead that PDI-P politician Nikson came out on top with the support of 32.2 per cent of respondents, followed by Bobby with 28.4 per cent and Edy with 26.3 per cent. - The Jakarta Post/ANN
