JAKARTA: Defence Minister and president-elect Prabowo Subianto’s (pic) recent trips abroad were a strong indication that Jakarta will likely take a bolder approach to Indonesia’s free and active foreign policy following a decade of President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo’s administration, analysts have said.
They have also predicted that Prabowo will be more active and pragmatic in diplomacy in pursuing Indonesia’s interests abroad.
In just the five months since the Feb 14 presidential election, Prabowo has conducted at least a dozen foreign visits across the globe, meeting with various heads of state in Asia, the Middle East and most recently Europe.
His overseas trips, which have piqued widespread interest as Indonesia remains in the fragile balancing act of non-alignment, saw the incoming president assert his eagerness to deepen economic, security and cultural ties with the countries he visited, all of which were notably varied in their geopolitical alliances.
Prabowo’s latest string of foreign visits, which saw him cosying up to France, Serbia and Turkiye, was concluded with a visit to Russia where he met with President Vladimir Putin and Defence Minister Andrey Belousov.
In the July 30 visit to Russia, Prabowo reasserted his eagerness to deepen Jakarta’s friendship with Moscow, an itinerary choice widely considered a signal to the world that his leadership will not shy away from making alliances potentially seen as unpopular to benefit Indonesia
“Politically speaking, it is a bit too early to predict his alignment. It seems, however, that he wants to visit as many countries with various alignments as possible,” said international relations expert Ahmad Rizky M. Umar from the University of Queensland.
“It’s interesting because the visits have been very pragmatic in nature.”
For example, Umar said, Prabowo’s decision to pay high-level visits to China and Russia will be beneficial for Indonesia’s economic and defense sectors, both of which have been among the government’s top priorities in the past several years, though it could raise tensions with the United States, which is currently at odds with both countries.
“Indonesia’s relationship with the US is considerably all right now, though there are little tangible results coming from this relationship – whether it be business investments or in the defense sector,” Umar said.
“Prabowo’s international politics is unpredictable, pragmatic and realistic. He will continue pushing any position that would benefit Jakarta’s domestic interests.”
Prabowo met with Chinese President Xi Jinping to assert commitment to continue the close bilateral ties under predecessor Jokowi in the visit to Beijing on April 1, at which time he also met with Premier Li Qiang and Defence Minister Dong.
Two days later, he met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo to reaffirm the Indonesia-Japan bilateral relationship.
He also attended a high-level dialogue on Palestine on behalf of outgoing President Jokowi on June 12 in Jordan.
With Indonesia’s ambition to modernise its outdated weaponry system through the Minimum Essential Force (MEF) program, much interest has been placed in procuring US-made military equipment.
Yet Jakarta has faced some trouble along the way, for example when its request for Lockheed Martin F-35 5th generation fighter jets was rejected by Washington, pushing it to settle for the Boeing F-15EX Eagle II. The F-15 Eagle is the latest iteration of the venerable US fourth generation jet fighter, sometimes coined a 4.5 generation fighter jet.
Indonesia also scrapped a plan to buy Sukhoi SU-35 jets from Russia because of possible US sanctions over Moscow’s 2014 annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, and instead signed a contract to buy Rafale fighter-jets from France.
Analysts are skeptical about the fate of some ongoing defence procurements with the US, citing a lack of publicly available information, with some predicting low defense procurement activities between the two countries in the future.
Amid a polarised geopolitical landscape, international relations expert Dafri Agussalim from Gadjah Mada University (UGM) urged Prabowo to tactfully carry out his “assertive” diplomacy.
“Prabowo’s overseas trips could also rub some countries the wrong way, but it could be his strategy to increase Indonesia’s bargaining power. After all, we’ve yet to see any benefits from the US,” Dafri said.
“It’s reminiscent of our previous strategies. When Indonesia wanted to liberate West Papua from the Netherlands and did not receive help from the US, it went to the Soviet Union, for example. I think Prabowo will most likely follow this type of diplomacy,” he added.
While experts remain divided on whether Prabowo’s presidency will see many differences in Indonesia’s political alignment, with some predicting a more counter-West approach while others suggest a pragmatic approach, the consensus is that Prabowo’s leadership will herald a “more active” Indonesia on the foreign stage.
“It’s key to see who Prabowo picks as a foreign minister next. If it’s one of his political allies instead of a seasoned career diplomat, then we will most likely see this pragmatism on a full scale,” Umar said. - The Jakarta Post/ANN
