BANGKOK: On Wednesday (Aug 14), after 84 days of anticipation, the Constitutional Court will determine the fate of Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin (pic).
The court will rule whether Srettha can continue as PM in the case involving the appointment of Phichit Chuenban as Minister attached to the Prime Minister’s Office, despite knowing Phichit was prohibited due to his involvement in the “2 million baht in snack bag” scandal.
The government only learnt of the petition by the 40 former senators after it had reached the Constitutional Court’s administrative division. The rapid action raised suspicions about which prominent figure might be behind it.
On the advice of legal experts, Pheu Thai Party signalled Phichit to resign but the Constitutional Court, by a vote of 6 to 3, accepted the petition for consideration, and by a 5 to 4 vote, did not suspend Srettha from his duties as Prime Minister pending the court's final ruling.
Top legal advisor Wissanu Krea-ngam was then brought in to assist Srettha by drafting a strong defence, final statements, and closing arguments.
There are two possible outcomes, the first being that if the court rules in favour of Srettha, clearing him of any constitutional violations, the government could continue operating, without any further disruptions, at least for the rest of the year.
However, this outcome would force Srettha to reshuffle the cabinet, whether this month or in September following the passage of the 2025 budget bill, and also change coalition partners, as Thaksin Shinawatra is displeased with Prawit Wongsuwan who has been trying to topple the government to fulfil his own ambitions.
The 40 MPs from the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) are said to be divided into two factions: those loyal to Prawit, the PPRP leader, and those loyal to Thammanat Prompao, the Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives, and PPRP Secretary-General.
The main goal of Thaksin is to push out the 20 MPs loyal to Prawit from the government coalition. This forces Thammanat to try and win over as many of these MPs as possible; otherwise, Thaksin might bring in 21 Democrat MPs as replacements, which would cost the PPRP its ministerial positions.
In the meantime, Srettha’s government faces the risk of a no-confidence motion, which the opposition could submit during this parliamentary session, as the House is set to adjourn in early October.
There are rumours that the opposition, led by the People's Party, has multiple issues ready for scrutiny.
Another factor to watch is the Democrats. If they miss out on joining the government again, they may fully commit to being in opposition, abandoning any hope of government participation to score political points.
Economically, if Srettha passes this hurdle, the focus will shift to his administration's performance, particularly on the flagship policies of the government and the Pheu Thai Party, which are aimed at boosting public support.
This includes the much-discussed 10,000-baht digital wallet policy, which is expected to be fully operational by early November.
Another key policy is the entertainment complex initiative, discussed by Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Phumtham Wechayachai and coalition leaders on August 12. The draft law is expected to be presented to the cabinet today.
The Land Bridge project is also progressing, with the drafting of the Southern Special Economic Zone Act.
The government is confident that this ambitious project, which connects the Gulf of Thailand with the Andaman Sea, will transform Thailand and attract global investors—a vision Srettha has promoted during roadshows in various countries.
Additionally, Srettha faces the challenge of restoring business confidence, as the political vacuum has affected market sentiment, which is reflected in the negative stock market trading.
The second scenario, if the Constitutional Court rules against Srettha forcing him to step down as Prime Minister, concerns the status of the Pheu Thai Party, which will be immediately jeopardised. This is because the entire Srettha Cabinet would also be dismissed along with the Prime Minister.
The next phase of the political game could unfold in one of two ways:
Caretaker government with possible dissolution: The Srettha Cabinet would transition into a caretaker government, with one Deputy Prime Minister selected as the acting Prime Minister.
He or she would have the authority to dissolve the House of Representatives. If the House is dissolved, the Election Commission (EC) must announce the new election date within five days, with the election taking place within 45-60 days.
Candidates must belong to a political party at least 30 days before the election, allowing for party switches within 15-30 days after dissolution.
New prime minister without dissolution: Alternatively, the caretaker government might not dissolve the House but follow the procedure outlined in the Constitution.
The House of Representatives would then consider and approve a new Prime Minister, who must be someone from the list of candidates previously submitted by political parties to the EC.
A candidate must be proposed by at least 5% of the existing MPs, and the Senate’s vote is no longer required, as the constitutional transitional provision has expired. There is no specific time limit in the Constitution for this voting process.
Currently, there are six candidates from political parties with at least 25 MPs eligible to propose a Prime Ministerial candidate, among them Pheu Thai’s Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Chaikasem Nitisiri; Bhumjaithai’s Anutin Charnvirakul, Prawit Wongsuwan, and United Thai Nation’s Pirapan Salirathavibhaga.
Whether the Pheu Thai government can continue its administration hinges on the Constitutional Court's ruling.
Its decision will be a turning point in Thai politics and represents a significant gamble for both the Pheu Thai Party and the Shinawatra family. - The Nation/ANN
